我国物流理论发展与现存问题的研究

为推动对物流理论的学习与拓展,对我国物流产业发展进行了研究。分析了我国物流产业及理论的现存问题。着重研究了运用SCP理论、运筹学的库存理论和现代物流网络理论对其问题的解决方案。并分析了SCP理论、运筹学的库存理论和现代物流网络理论在我国物流理论的应用上存在的不足。     

从SCP范式看我国快递产业的发展

从产业发展的整体水平来看,目前中国的快递业正处于产业发展的快速期,并且在新《邮政法》的实施下,将出现新的市场格局。本文在SCP产业组织理论的框架下分析当前的中国快递产业,并在此基础上提出对应的建议。     

Identification of house price bubbles using user cost in a state space model

This article studies how much variation in house prices results from nonfundamental factors. We propose a relative valuation approach to quantifying a bubble in housing by incorporating the housing User Cost into a state space model. We find that UK house prices were undervalued from January 1995 to May 2001 and subsequently moved into a bubble over the period to October 2012. Our results support the bounded rationality hypothesis in the long run. However, we also find that the irrational and the rational expectation hypotheses can coexist in the short run when explosive bubbles are driven by price dynamics.     

我国旅行社业有效竞争评价研究

以SCP范式为框架,通过选取CR100、促销密度、旅行社企业年增长率等12个指标作为我国旅行社业有效竞争的评价指标,对这些指标在1999年至2006年间的指标值进行分析,结果表明我国旅行社业尚未实现有效竞争,旅行社业发展的关键在于提高规模效益。     

中国互联网产业组织分析

以产业组织理论中的SCP范式为基本分析框架,对中国互联网产业组织状况进行研究,认为中国互联网产业市场集中度逐步提高,已经形成中下集中寡占型市场结构,属于向稳定的市场结构过渡的中间阶段;市场行为方面,企业更多地采取模仿、不公平竞争的手段扩大规模和市场份额,规模经济水平并不明显,存在着业务同构化、产品和服务同质化现象;市场绩效相对低下,随着市场集中度的逐步提高,利润水平没有明显提升,反而呈下降趋势。在此基础上,提出政府管制应该采取的一些产业组织政策建议。     

基于凯恩斯消费函数的中美消费差异实证分析

本文将1986—2005年中国、美国消费与收入的相关数据与凯恩斯绝对收入假说理论进行了实证分析,对计量模型进行了参数估计和检验,通过建立居民的消费收入模型,得出了我国居民平均边际消费倾向低于美国居民的结论,并对如何鼓励消费政策提出了相应政策建议。     

Does market power affect performance in the dutch banking market? a comparison of reduced form market structure models

This paper investigates whether reduced form market structure models can be used to test whether there is market power in the Dutch banking market. First, a traditional Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) model is introduced. Next, a simple Cournot-model is introduced, which results in a more flexible measure of market power for different market structures. Finally, the inclusion of a modified Efficiency hypothesis reduces identification problems. Theoretically speaking, the Cournot model provides a better foundation for testing the existence of market power than the SCP model. Likewise, explicitly correcting for and including efficiency results in a more correct test of the Efficiency hypothesis. Empirical results for Dutch data confirm that the introduced improvements based on the Cournot models are the only ones resulting in tests that are consistent with the underlying models. Evidence from the Cournot model suggests that we cannot reject the existence of market power, although its impact on performance may be small. It also formalizes the need for additional research into the importance of strategic interaction among banks.     

The difference between the local and unbiased expectations hypotheses

This paper shows that the Local and Unbiased Expectations Hypotheses are equivalent in discrete time with continuously compounded interest rates. With discretely compounded rates, the hypotheses, while not exactly identical, are shown theoretically (and empirically for Treasury bills) to be approximately the same. These results have the important implication that many, apparently different, empirical tests of term structure theories have actually been tests of essentially equivalent hypotheses. The results also imply that recent models using continuously compounded rates are empirically indistinguishable from more traditional models using discretely compounded rates.     

从加强方法论教学角度来理解和讲授马克思政治经济学——以“前提假设运用”为例

马克思在阐述其政治经济学理论时有其独特的方法论,为了正确理解和讲授马克思政治经济学理论,我们有必要对他使用的方法论进行深入理解和探讨。本文将以前提假设运用为例分析马克思是如何借助这一方法来阐明自己的理论。以避免断章取义式"理解"和讲授马克思政治经济学理论。     

Probabilistic causality

Necessity and Sufficiency are two of the most important concepts in science. Indeed, they are the basis for establishing causal relationships between factors, variables, etc.