风险投资项目评估应用方法——项目效益风险比综合评价模型

风险投资机构一般从投资风险和投资收益两个方面来进行项目评估，本文在对现有的项目评估理论和方法做出详细、客观分析研究的基础上，结合我国风险投资的实际法律、经济、信用、社会文化环境，引入中层次分析法、模糊判断法，提出了一个综合评价效益风险比的改进模型。     

Modelling regional policy scenarios in the agri-food sector: a case study of a Spanish region

The agri-food industry has several features of great importance for sustainable economic growth in rural areas. The objective of this work is to evaluate the effects associated with different scenarios of growth, and changes in the regional agri-food industry. These scenarios simulate changes in exports and imports, changes in technology and changes in the level of industrial integration. We develop a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for the region. Our results indicate that policies trying to improve the competitiveness and dynamism of strategic sectors as the agro-industrial complex in this regional economy exert positive effects on its growth and income, having notable impacts on local job markets but also in other sectors and activities linked through the whole production chain.     

Structuring an effective human error intervention strategy selection model for commercial aviation

Flight safety cannot be compromised. Thus, commercial airlines should constantly develop safety management strategies to mitigate the diverse hazardous factors in flight operations. Given the constraint of organizational resource, a commercial airline may not have sufficient resources to implement all the necessary strategies simultaneously. This study uses a well-structured process to develop a qualitative evaluation model that will enable airlines to identify human errors and select an intervention strategy with the highest success potential. To clarify the decision problem, the Human Factors Intervention Matrix framework is utilized to construct the decision hierarchy. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to attain the priorities of potential alternative strategies for various unsafe acts. Finally, Zero-One Goal Programming models are formulated to select an optimal portfolio based on the specific target and the available organizational resources. An empirical study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed model. According to the results of the combined model, an optimal portfolio, including the intervention approaches of organizational/administrative, human/crew, and operational/physical environment, can remediate four unsafe acts, namely, decision errors, skill-based errors, perceptual errors, and violations, under resource constraints of the organization.     

七级多指标识别模型在商业银行贷款风险防范中的实证研究

本文从商业银行的贷款实际业务中，设置了32个贷款风险因素指标，构建了七级风险模糊识别模型，力求用一套现代定量方法对商业银行贷款风险进行有效的识别，目的在于揭示受评对象未来偿付能力的大小，以及影响该能力的各种因素及其变化趋势，定量化分析受评对象贷款违约的可能性及其严重程度，从而对商业银行贷款质量得出评估意见。     

基于马尔柯夫分析的计算机预测和决策应用

从DSS应用现状出发,介绍了马尔柯夫分析的定义和数学原理,阐述了马尔柯夫分析的过程和预测的基本步骤,利用Excel设计了进行市场占有率预测的应用模型,并进行了仿真预测和决策分析。测试表明,应用模型简便通用,操作方便,提高了预测的计算精度和效率。     

Past price ‘memory’ in the housing market: testing the performance of different spatio-temporal specifications

Recent methodological developments provide a way to incorporate the temporal dimension when accounting for spatial effects in hedonic pricing. Weight matrices should decompose the spatial effects into two distinct components: bidirectional contemporaneous spatial connections; and unidirectional spatio-temporal effects from past transactions. Our iterative estimation approach explicitly analyses the role of time in price determination. The results show that both spatio-temporal components should be included in model specification; past transaction information stops contributing to price determination after eight months; and limited temporal friction is exhibited within this period. These findings highlight the decidedly non-linear temporal patterns of such information effects.     

概率度量空间中压缩型映象不动点定理的一个推广

本文揭示了《不动点理论及应用》的第九章中节(2)型与第(4)型压缩映象的本质区别;并在此基础上给出了一个定理,它是《不动点定理及应用》中定理9、3、6定理与9、3、10的推广。     

对“齐王赛马”问题的求解

“齐王赛马”是一个典型的对策论例子,本文运用线性规划法对其进行全面求解。