烟花爆竹用烟火药剂时间—压力测试研究

根据联合国《关于危险货物运输的建议书——试验手册》（小橙皮书）的要求,建立了烟火药剂时间-压力测试系统,对不同烟火药剂进行了测试,获得的试验结果对黑药、白药判定提供了试验数据,为烟花爆竹危险性分级提供了依据。     

产品生命周期视角下的主题公园剖析——以广州长隆欢乐世界为例

主题公园受资本追捧顺应旅游市场需求而兴建,但能够持续盈利的并不多。基于产品生命周期理论,我们以长隆欢乐世界为案例,尝试着对其产品构成、产品优势进行剖析,并提出产品创新的设想,以期对我国主题公园生命周期的延续及持久发展能有所借鉴。     

Sectoral Income

What is the income of each sector of an economy? E.g., in the case of a country endowed with petroleum resources, what is the income of its petroleum sector? Here we present a definition of sectoral income, which is compatible with an important line of theoretical literature on comprehensive national accounting. We do so first by splitting national income into individual income and then defining sectoral income by considering the contributions to individual income that the sectors give rise to.     

Microfinance spillovers: A model of competition in informal credit markets with an application to Indian villages

Despite widespread interest in the development of microfinance, spillover effects on the non-using population and redistributive issues remain largely unexplored. I study a competition game between microfinance institutions (MFIs) offering joint-liability loans and moneylenders offering individual loans in presence of adverse selection. I show that one unintended consequence of the entry of a microfinance sector in local credit markets can be to trigger an increase in the equilibrium informal interest rate, because MFIs tend to attract a disproportionately-safe share of the borrower pool away from incumbent moneylenders. The existence of such composition externality depends crucially on the size of the microfinance sector and the risk composition of the borrower pool. The model predicts a non-linearly increasing relationship between informal interest rates and MFIs' capacity in relatively safe credit markets, and no relationship in risky villages. I show evidence supporting these predictions, using a first-hand panel database that records all credit transactions over 8 years for a sample of about 1000 households living in Indian villages with extensive space and time variation in the size of their microfinance sector.     

Productivity insurance: The role of unemployment benefits in a multi-sector model

We construct a multi-sector search and matching model where the unemployed receives idiosyncratic productivity shocks that make working in certain sectors more productive than in the others. Agents must decide which sector to search in and face moving costs when leaving their current sector for another. In this environment, unemployment is associated with an additional risk: low future wages if mobility costs preclude search in the appropriate sector. This introduces a new role for unemployment benefits – productivity insurance while unemployed. For plausible parameterizations unemployment benefits increase per-worker productivity. In addition, the welfare-maximizing benefit level decreases as moving costs increase.     

News shock,firm dynamics and business cycles: Evidence and theory

The literature of expectation-driven business cycles has overlooked the role played by endogenous entry. This paper documents empirically news shock as a major source of fluctuations in firm dynamics and comovement between firm entry and GDP using structural vector auto-regressions. We then develop a tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the propagation mechanism assuming fixed operating costs for incumbents and decreasing survival rates for entrants. Our quantitative prediction closely matches the positive comovement between firm entries and core macroeconomic indicators upon news shock. These results remain robust at the sectoral level when the baseline model is extended to a two-sector setup.     

Equilibrium dynamics in discrete-time endogenous growth models with social constant returns

The existing literature establishes possibilities of local determinacy and dynamic indeterminacy in continuous-time two-sector models of endogenous growth with social constant returns. The necessary and sufficient condition for local determinacy is that the factor intensity rankings of the two sectors are consistent in the private/physical and social/value sense. The necessary and sufficient condition for dynamic indeterminacy is that the final (consumable) good sector is human (pure) capital intensive in the private sense but physical (consumable) capital intensive in the social sense. This paper re-examines the dynamic properties in a discrete-time endogenous growth framework and finds that conventional propositions obtained in continuous time need not be valid. It is shown that the established necessary and sufficient conditions on factor intensity rankings for local determinacy and dynamic indeterminacy are neither sufficient nor necessary, as the magnitudes of time preference and capital depreciation rates both play essential roles. We have benefitted from discussion with Robert Becker, Eric Bond, Michael Kaganovich, Karl Shell and participants of the Midwest Macroeconomic Conference in Chicago and the Midwest Economic Theory and International Trade Meetings at Indiana University. The fourth author acknowledges financial support from the Institute of Economics and Business Administration of Kobe University and the Institute of Economic Research of Kyoto University to enable this international collaboration.     

Modelling monetary transmission in UK manufacturing industry

This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to industrial output in the UK. In order to capture asymmetries, a system of threshold equations is considered. However, unlike previous research, endogenous threshold parameters are allowed to be different for each equation. Such an approach may be appealing from an economic point of view and is shown to be of importance after suitable econometric evaluation. Results show evidence of cross-sectional differences across industries and asymmetries in some sectors. These findings contribute to the debate about the importance of alternative economic theories to explain these asymmetries and support the use of a sectorally disaggregated approach to the analysis of monetary transmission.     

我国企业债券市场均衡的理论分析和实证测算

我国企业债券市场的均衡分析与一般的均衡分析有重大区别,即必须以供给分析、需求分析和预算约束分析相结合,才能对我国企业债券市场的合理规模得出科学的结论.在构建了我国企业债券市场的均衡分析理论的基础上,笔者对我国企业债券市场的实际规模进行了测算,结论是我国企业债券市场必然会得到巨大发展.