荷兰港口设施及供应链保安发展现状

介绍了"9·11事件"发生之后,荷兰政府所采取的港口设施保安措施,以及供应链保安的发展现状。     

我国融资融券立易模式的制度选择分析

尽管国内各项法规已经针对融资融券业务制定了诸多细则,但具有决定意义的融资融券交易模式并未明确。本文着重分析了当前国际市场上的几种主流交易模式的操作方法,并进行了详细的对比。结合中国已有的业务细则,认为设立统一证券金融公司,能够最大程度控制风险的"单轨制专业化"模式将是中国证券市场的合理选择。     

大饥荒与宗教信仰——基于CGSS数据的微观分析

文章采用2010—2013年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)微观数据,发现大饥荒对于个人宗教信仰选择具有长期影响。实证结果表明,在控制其他变量影响的情况下,成年时期经历过大饥荒的人群更加倾向于选择信仰宗教,并且考虑流动人口、DID方法和安慰剂(placebo)检验下的回归结果也非常稳健。同时,基于宗教社会网络模型和宗教事后保障模型,文章发现社交动机和个人健康状况是两者的重要影响机制。最后,文章提出了相应的政策建议。     

Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research

We assess investment banks’ influence over the agreement between their analysts’ research behavior and their clients’ interests, in the post-reform era. Competing banks discipline their analysts with worse career outcomes for producing biased reports, issuing shirking reports, and for involvement in the earnings guidance game, showing meaningful monitoring of their analysts. Highly reputable banks provide more monitoring discipline of their analysts and bonding of their moral hazard than other banks. The findings agree with the banks taking responsibility for aligning analysts’ behavior with clients’ interests.     

农村社会保障支出对农村居民消费的影响的实证研究

从社会保障对居民消费影响机制的微观基础出发,运用协整分析并建立向量误差修正模型对我国农村社会保障支出的消费效应进行了实证研究.结果表明,我国农村社会保障支出没有对农村居民消费支出产生促进作用.因此,应加快农村社会保障制度的改革,促进农村居民消费,拉动内需.     

The value of combining the information content of analyst recommendations and target prices

In assessing the usefulness of the analysts’ stock picking advice, the extant literature has largely focused on the profitability of either their stock recommendations or target prices in isolation. In this paper, we examine the profitability of investment strategies that exploit the information analysts convey through revisions in both their stock recommendations and target prices. We find that these strategies significantly outperform the comparable strategies that make use of only one analyst output.     

Do German security analysts herd?

We employ an innovative methodology suggested by Bernhardt et al. (J. Financ. Econ. 80:657–675, 2006) to examine the herding (or anti-herding) behavior of German analysts regarding earnings forecasts. This methodology avoids well-known shortcomings often encountered in related studies, such as correlated information signals, unexpected common shocks to earnings, systematic optimism or pessimism, or forecast target mismeasurement. Our findings suggest that German analysts anti-herd, that is, they systematically issue earnings forecasts that are further away from the consensus forecast than their private information indicates. Furthermore, we analyze the association between herding behavior and different characteristics, including the size of the brokerage, general or firm-specific experience, and the coverage of firms on the Neuer Markt. We mainly confirm findings for the United States, for example, that anti-herding is more severe in cases of higher competition among analysts. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we also find anti-herding behavior in earnings forecasts for Neuer Markt firms during the “new economy” bubble.

证券投资基金和保险资金对股票市场影响的实证分析

本文利用上海证券交易所于2007年7月30日至2008年12月31日期间公布的Topview数据,对证券投资基金、保险资金的交易行为进行了实证分析,结果发现证券投资基金的交易行为是上证180指数(及指数的自然对数和对数收益率)变化的单向Granger原因,而上证180指数与保险资金交易行为之间不存在Granger因果关系。通过对相关变量的模型分析,我们发现在样本期间证券投资基金的交易行为对上证180指数(取对数)及其对数收益率的均值产生了微弱的正向影响,但没有对上证180指数(取对数)及其对数收益率的波动性(以残差或条件方差衡量)产生统计上显著的影响。     

投资组合构建与调整的合理性及其对基金绩效的影响

从理论推论看,投资组合构建与调整的合理性越高,投资绩效就可能越好。为此,本文构建了衡量组合合理性高低的指标,并采用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验法、Kruskal-Wallis检验法、基于Wilcoxon秩检验的多重比较法等方法,实证研究我国股票型基金投资组合的合理性对基金绩效的影响。研究结果一方面支持了理论推论的正确性,另一方面也印证了本文所建立的组合合理性指标的可取性。同时论文发现,在牛市熊市的不同情况下,基金组合构建的合理性及其对继续的影响存在差异。论文据此提出了相关的建议和启示。     

论住房保障制度的法律价值

住宅问题是关系民生,关系社会和谐的关键问题。一方面,住宅权是一项基本人权,建立住房保障制度是政府的法律义务,政府应建立合理的住房保障制度,保障中低收入者居者有其屋;另一方面,建立住房保障制度要以实现社会正义为价值目标,在住房保障制度的设计中应遵循差别原则,调节社会和经济利益分配,将高收入者的一部分收入适当地转移给低收入人群,使处于住房最不利地位的贫困者能够尽可能大地获得住房利益。