电网企业优化购电成本方法研究与实证分析

通过购电成本结构分析,指出了当前发电计划编制及执行中存在的问题和当前发电计划编制对电网购电费的影响。重点研究了有关降低电网购电成本的方法及实证,并为政府价格相关部门提出创建节能型社会的政策建议。     

潜油电泵泵轴寿命可靠性分析

统计了大庆油田近五年应用的4123套潜油电泵机组，针对248件失效泵轴的寿命进行分布检验分析，验证了其符合威布尔分布规律,并进行了可靠性评定。应用编制的工程软件可计算不同样本下泵轴寿命的概率分布规律，确定其可靠性指标，实现对泵轴使用可靠性的定性分析和定量评定，为进一步开展潜油电泵机组可靠性研究提供必要的基础数据和数据处理手段。     

关于输配电价几个重要问题的探讨

我国电力企业将要由传统的垂直垄断的模式转变为网厂分开、竞价上网的模式。电网公司作为一个独立的经营实体分离开来,有着独立的收益需求。在市场运营过程中,通过输配电价取得收益就成了电网公司取得收益的主要手段。在输配电价的制订过程之中,管制方式、输配电成本、输电定价方法、价格水平及电网投资、输配电价价区、电网提供的辅助服务等六个问题十分重要。文中就这六个问题的解决作了一些有价值的探讨。     

慎重看待大用户直供电问题

论述了在电力市场初期我国缺少实施大用户直供电所必须具备的若干条件,分析了当前开展大用户直供电存在的问题及可能造成的影响,指出开展直供是改革的趋势但不可急于求成.     

Spatial patterns of poverty in Vietnam and their implications for policy

This study examines the geographic distribution of poverty in Vietnam by applying small area estimation methods to household budget data and population census data. The resulting district-level poverty estimates suggest that the incidence of poverty is highest in the remote northern and central highlands and lowest in the south-east and in large urban centres. However, mapping the density of poverty reveals that most poor people do not live in the poorest districts but in the two lowland deltas, where poverty incidence is intermediate. The policy implications of these findings present an important trade-off between targeting poor areas and poor people that can only be resolved with better information on the relative costs of delivering different programmes and their expected impact. Existing government estimates of poverty at the district level are not closely correlated with our poverty estimates, perhaps because of regional variation in their methods of collecting poverty data.     

A logistic regression point of view toward loss given default distribution estimation

We propose a new procedure to estimate the loss given default (LGD) distribution. Owing to the complicated shape of the LGD distribution, using a smooth density function as a driver to estimate it may result in a decline in model fit. To overcome this problem, we first apply the logistic regression to estimate the LGD cumulative distribution function. Then, we convert the result into the LGD distribution estimate. To implement the newly proposed estimation procedure, we collect a sample of 5269 defaulted debts from Moody’s Default and Recovery Database. A performance study is performed using 2000 pairs of in-sample and out-of-sample data-sets with different sizes that are randomly selected from the entire sample. Our results show that the newly proposed procedure has better and more robust performance than its alternatives, in the sense of yielding more accurate in-sample and out-of-sample LGD distribution estimates. Thus, it is useful for studying the LGD distribution.     

Measuring the liquidity part of volume

Based on the concept that the presence of liquidity frictions can increase the daily traded volume, we develop an extended version of the mixture of distribution hypothesis model (MDH) along the lines of Tauchen and Pitts (1983) to measure the liquidity portion of volume. Our approach relies on a structural definition of liquidity frictions arising from the theoretical framework of Grossman and Miller (1988), which explains how liquidity shocks affect the way in which information is incorporated into daily trading characteristics. In addition, we propose an econometric setup exploiting the volatility–volume relationship to filter the liquidity portion of volume and infer the presence of liquidity frictions using daily data. Finally, based on FTSE 100 stocks, we show that the extended MDH model proposed here outperforms that of Andersen (1996) and that the liquidity frictions are priced in the cross-section of stock returns.     

10kV开关设备检修要点分析及应用

在配电系统中,开关设备是非常关键的部分。它若出现故障,可能引发大面积停电事故,会增加运行成本,降低设备的使用功能,而且有损电力公司的社会形象。本文基于现代电力系统运行要求,重点分析了10kV开关设备检修要点,旨在积累更多运行维护的技术经验,在保证设备功能的前提下,降低运行成本,提高电力系统运行的安全性和可靠性。     

Adaptive learning and distributional dynamics in an incomplete markets model

Recent research shows that several DSGE models provide a closer fit to the data under adaptive learning. This paper extends this research by introducing adaptive learning in the model of Krusell and Smith (1998) with uninsurable idiosyncratic risks and aggregate uncertainty. A first contribution of this paper establishes that the equilibrium of this framework is stable under least-squares learning. The second contribution consists of showing that bounded rationality enhances the ability of this model to match the distribution of income in the US. Learning increases significantly the Gini coefficients because of the opposite effects on consumption of the capital-rich and of the capital-poor agent. The third contribution is an empirical exercise that shows that learning can account for increases in the income Gini coefficient of up to 25% in a period of 28 years. Overall, these findings suggest that adaptive learning has important distributional repercussions in this class of models.     

Twenty Years of Expenditure Inequality in Indonesia, 1993–2013

In this article, we consider the recent increase in inequality in Indonesia. We make new, consistent estimates of expenditure inequality for 1993–2013, using several measures that draw on household expenditure data from the National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) for 1993–2013. In doing so, we note that the central statistics agency, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), used grouped data for its estimates of inequality until 2009 and that this underestimated inequality up to then. Thus the rise in inequality reported since 2009 actually has a longer history. We argue that Indonesia experienced divergence and convergence at the same time: the magnitude of the rise in inequality was significant (divergence), but the rise was greatest in provinces or districts with low initial levels of inequality (convergence). We consider the literature on drivers of changes in inequality and identify a set of hypotheses, with an empirical basis, which we introduce as potential Indonesian-specific drivers of rising inequality for future exploration.