An Analysis of WellBeing in Secondary School with Multilevel Growth Curve models and Multilevel Multivariate Models

This paper reports on an exploration of student wellbeing in secondary school. A wellbeing questionnaire was administered four times to the same students. Multilevel models were applied in which measurements are grouped within students within schools. Differences between students are large, but there are only minor differences between schools regarding the wellbeing. Two methods of analysis of longitudinal data are compared: a multilevel multivariate approach and a multilevel growth curve analysis. It is shown that the estimation of individual growth curves is an elegant and parsimonious way of modelling. The multivariate approach on the other hand is a more modest model. The assumptions, advantages and disadvantages of both perspectives are listed.     

世界城市化规律:文献综述

深入研究世界城市化运动规律,不仅有助于加速中国的城市化进程,纠正理论上的偏差,更主要的是有助于加快中国经济发展的步伐,缩小中国与世界的差距.因此,这里就世界城市化运动规律问题作一综述.     

Forms of Scale Curves and Differential Inverse Demand Systems

This article provides a new interpretation of the scale effects in differential inverse demand systems. A scale curve is defined as a curve that shows how the expenditure share of a good or service changes as the consumption level changes. It is shown that Brown, Lee, and Seale's synthetic model has the same scale effects as do the Box–Cox scale curves. In this light, their model is not a mere composite but a model in its own right. An empirical illustration given for Japanese fresh food demand suggests that the underlying scale curves differ from both linear and loglinear forms.     

Arbitrage bounds for the term structure of interest rates

This paper proposes a methodology for simultaneously computing a smooth estimator of the term structure of interest rates and economically justified bounds for it. It unifies existing estimation procedures that apply regression, smoothing and linear programming methods. Our methodology adjusts for possibly asymmetric transaction costs. Various regression and smoothing techniques have been suggested for estimating the term structure. They focus on what functional form to choose or which measure of smoothness to maximize, mostly neglecting the discussion of the appropriate measure of fit. Arbitrage theory provides insight into how small the pricing error will be and in which sense, depending on the structure of transaction costs. We prove a general result relating the minimal pricing error one incurs in pricing all bonds with one term structure to the maximal arbitrage profit one can achieve with restricted portfolios.     

Note

Functional classes of Lorenz curves are derived from a generalization of a relative poverty notion. All these Lorenz curves compare individual income to the average of all larger or all smaller incomes. The parameters of the Lorenz curves are effectively computed from empirical income data by least square regressions. Best fits are analyzed and resulting functional Gini indices are compared to empirical Gini indices.First version received: September 2002/Final version received: April 2003     

Peaking of fiscal sizes of government

Transfers, spending, and tax revenue peaked as percentages of the gross national product (GNP) in most OECD countries during 1972–1992. The evidence suggests that a number of countries pushed transfers close to or perhaps beyond sustainable limits imposed by the Laffer curve. Namely: (i) stylized calculations of Laffer limits suggest peak fiscal sizes in the range of observed peaks in the countries with the greatest peak sizes; and (ii) the countries with the greatest peak sizes had the greatest declines in fiscal sizes from peaks until 1992.     

Market Structure,Learning and Product Innovation: Evidence for the EPROM Market

The study analyses the market for semiconductor memory chips, in particular EPROMs. Semiconductors are very interesting industry for studying empirically the dynamics of innovation. Given the short product life cycles of generations of chips, the market dynamics unfold much more rapidly than in other industries and are therefore better amenable to empirical observation. One of the aims is to shed more light on the link between learning and the dynamics of product innovation, as well as their influence on market structure. Learning with an old generation turns out to be an important determinant for product innovation. The further down the firm has moved on the learning curve, the higher its market share, and the larger becomes the probability that the firm is an early innovator. The results are consistent with the persistence of leadership hypothesis.     

垂直地震勘探深度测量的可靠性分析

介绍了在垂直地震勘探中主要的深度测量方法，对比了各种方法的精度，分析了不同方法的可靠性，归纳了增强深度测量可靠性的措施，指出了计数器检验工作中存在的不足，得出了垂直地震深度测量方法综合应用的结论。     

实证分析:我国菲利普斯曲线失灵与应对财政政策就业效应

1998年至今我国经济呈现出GDP高速增长的态势,但是这种经济的高速增长伴随着的是宏观经济运行的两大不稳定因素,一是物价持续上涨,二是就业形势日益严峻,宏观经济呈现出菲利普斯曲线失灵的特点。本文在运用GDP增长率、失业率和通货膨胀率等相关指标来论证、描述和解析我国菲利普斯曲线失灵现象的基础上,主要对近几年我国政府在应对菲利普斯曲线失灵时所采取的相关反失业财政政策及其就业效应进行了分析,从而为我国政府今后如何继续完善和实施治理失业的财政政策起到一个抛砖引玉的作用。     

The New Keynesian Phillips curve and the role of expectations: Evidence from the CESifo World Economic Survey

We provide evidence on the fit of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve for selected Euro zone countries, the US and the UK. Instead of imposing rational expectations and estimating the Phillips curve by the Generalized Method of Moments, we use direct measures of inflation expectations from the CESifo World Economic Survey. Our main findings are as follows: (i) The use of survey data gives empirical results, which are more reliable than those obtained from the GMM approach. (ii) The purely forward-looking Phillips curve can be rejected in favor of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. (iii) The estimated coefficients on past inflation are higher when using survey expectations than when using the rational expectations GMM approach. (iv) It remains unclear whether real unit labor costs or a measure of the output gap should be used as a proxy for real marginal costs. (v) Theory-based restrictions lead to an improvement of the empirical results.