Trade Structure and Trade liberalization: The emerging pattern between the EU and Transition Economies

The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence for the assumption that trade liberalization unlocks the potential of the Transition Economies (TEs) to achieve technological upgrading, productivity progress and catching-up (in terms of income). The study examines the trade structure now emerging between the European Union (EU) and the TEs in the light of two sets of differently liberalized trade items identified by the European Agreements. The aim is to determine whether trade liberalization has helped to supersede the structures – reflected mainly in the low quality of products – inherited by the TEs from the command economy. The empirical results are interpreted in the light of the Flam-Helpman quality-cycle model. We find evidence of an ongoing division of labor between high quality products (EU) and low quality products (TEs) according to a cycle. The first stage comprises the already well established dominance of quality advantage products by EU countries producing and exporting high-quality products, which crowd out the TEs' production of similar products. The second stage is the exploitation of cost-advantages by TEs in less liberalized trade, and there they appear to achieve better results. All these results may be taken as support for an active government in TEs.     

从唐甄的旅游观看中国文化的转型

本文从人们较少注意的旅游这种特殊的行为方式及其相应的观念意识上去探讨文化转型的具体进展。认为唐甄提出的“好游者人之恒情也”的旅游观具有自然人性论的哲学基础,是对农本社会和儒家传统伦理束缚旅游的否定,是在明清之际中国手工商业（原初工业化）发展的经济土壤上,在市民阶级兴起和大众化产生的社会关系和生活方式中,形成的一种带有近代倾向的旅游观念,具有文化转型的意义。     

Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries

We study a sample of nine developed and nine developing countries to evaluate the questions of how foreign income uncertainty and real exchange rate (RER) uncertainty impact international trade and how those impacts vary according to stage of development. RER uncertainty has a negative and significant impact on export growth for six of the nine less developed countries in our sample, while it has an insignificant effect for a majority of the developed countries. In both groups, foreign income uncertainty has a more pervasively significant (and frequently larger) influence on trade than does RER uncertainty.     

证券市场成交量对收益率波动性影响的实证分析

本文根据上海证券市场上证综合指数2005年1月1日到2006年1月1日的复合收益率和日成交量。用GARCC模型描述日成交量对复合收益率的波动性影响。在GARCH模型中加入当期交易量、滞后一期的交易量，结果表明当期交易量变化率能明显削弱收益率条件方差的波动性，而滞后一期的成交量只通过对当期的成交量间接的影响复合收益率。     

危机后期经济增长方式转变、指导思想与实践路径——必须依据马克思主义理论为指导克服危机

经济增长理论是社会经济增长的一种理论反映,源于斯密和李嘉图为代表的古典经济学,是二战后在发达国家广泛流行的经济理论。但是发达国家经济学家自身存在的认识论缺陷使其不可能科学完整的建立经济增长理论及模型,因此必须遵循马克思的方法论从理论为实际的反映入手建立科学模型,并指导中国经济结构以及产业结构的调整,特别是经济增长方式的转变实践中经济结构及产业结构的优化升级。     

Smooth Transition ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing

In this paper, we suggest an extension of the ARCH model, the smooth-transition autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (STARCH) model. STARCH models endogenously allow for time-varying shifts in the parameters of the conditional variance equation. The most general form of the model that we consider is a double smooth-transition model, the STAR-STARCH model, which permits not only the conditional variance, but also the mean, to be a function of a smooth-transition term. The threshold ARCH model, the Markov-ARCH model and the standard ARCH model are special cases of our STARCH model. We also develop Lagrange multiplier tests of the hypothesis that the smooth-transition term in the conditional variance is zero. We apply our STARCH model to excess Treasury bill returns. We find some evidence of a smooth transition in excess returns, but in contrast to previous studies, we find almost no evidence of volatility persistence once we allow for smooth transitions in the conditional variance. Thus, the apparent persistence in the conditional variance reported by many researchers could be a mere statistical artifact. We conduct in-sample tests comparing STARCH models to nested competitors; these suggest that STARCH models hold promise for improved predictions. Finally, we describe further extensions of the STARCH model and suggest issues in finance to which they might profitably be applied.     

上市公司产业转型的风险管理

产业转型是我国很大一部分上市公司不得不面对的艰难选择,其中蕴涵着极大的风险,转型成功率极低。产业转型的本质是产业创新,通过产业创新实现产业转型是企业转型成功的基本保证。     

上海股市收益与波动的周内效应研究

股市周内效应一直是金融投资者关注的焦点问题，许多学者已做了大量研究，但多数文献将收益与波动的周内效应分开来进行研究和检验，忽视了波动与收益的共生性，其结果缺乏严密性和说服力。针对这种情况，提出平行数据GARCH模型并给出了参数的极大似然估计方法，进而对上海股市收益和波动的周内效应进行检验，既反映收益与风险存在共生关系，又避免了分别判断收益和波动的周内效应所致的缺点。     

信息冲击对收益波动的影响--基于交易量的实证研究

文章首先将交易量分解为信息交易量和非信息交易量，然后将信息交易量加入广义自回归条件异方差模型（GARCH模型），来分析信息对收益波动的影响。结果发现，信息冲击对收益波动的影响十分显著，投资者对信息到达的反应存在过度反应、过度矫正、适度反应的过程。