Commodity price cycles and heterogeneous speculators: a STAR–GARCH model

We propose an empirical commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators. While the power of trend-extrapolating chartists is constant over time, the symmetric impact of stabilizing fundamentalists adjusts endogenously according to market circumstances: Using monthly data for various commodities such as cotton, sugar or zinc, our STAR–GARCH model indicates that their influence positively depends on the distance between the commodity price and its long-run equilibrium value. Fundamentalists seem to become more and more convinced that mean reversion will set in as the mispricing enlarges. Commodity price cycles may thus emerge due to the nonlinear interplay between different trader types. The paper represents the authors’ personal opinion and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank.     

Government as a discriminating monopolist in the financial market: the case of China

We show that the many unusual features of China’s financial markets are consistent with a government choosing regulations to maximize a standard type of social welfare function. Under certain conditions, these regulations are equivalent to imposing explicit taxes on business and interest income, yet should be much easier to enforce. The observed implicit tax rates are broadly in line with those observed in other countries. The theory also forecasts, however, that China will face increasing incentives over time to shift to explicit taxes.     

Illicit drug markets and economic irregularities

Markets for illicit drugs present an interesting case study for economics, combining non-standard characteristics such as addiction and product illegality. One response has been to argue the generality of economic principles by suggesting that they apply even in the extreme case of markets for addictive substances, e.g., by showing that demand for illicit goods is responsive to price [1] [Reframing health behavior change with behavioral economics. Hillsdale, NJ:Lawrence Earlbaum Associates; 2000. p. 89-111.] and even by modeling addiction as rational [2] [J Political Econ 1988;96:675-700]. This paper sketches examples of an alternative reaction, focusing on idiosyncrasies of drug markets that might plausibly create counter-intuitive effects, including supply curves that slope downward because of enforcement swamping and/or a good serving as the only available store of wealth for its producer, demand reduction programs that increase demand, and consumption by “jugglers” possibly increasing rather than decreasing as prices rise. This analysis yields non-obvious policy recommendations; for example, source country control programs should concentrate on growing regions with a healthy banking sector.     

On the Non-Existence of Redundant Options

In a seminal paper, Ross (Q J Econ 90:75–89, 1976) shows that if security markets are resolving, then there exist (non-redundant) options that generate complete security markets. Complementing his work, Aliprantis and Tourky (2002) show that if security markets are strongly resolving and the number of primitive securities is less than half the number of states, then every option is non-redundant. Our paper extends Aliprantis and Tourky’s result to the case when their condition on the number of primitive securities is not imposed. Specifically, we show that if there exists no binary payoff vector in the asset span, then for each portfolio there exists a set of exercise prices of full measure such that any option on the portfolio with an exercise price in this set is non-redundant. Since the condition that there exists no binary payoff vector in the asset span holds generically, redundant options are thus rare. I am grateful to an anonymous referee for very helpful comments. Research support from the School of Business at The George Washington University is gratefully acknowledged     

Capacity constrained firms in (labor) markets with adverse selection

Summary. We discuss a competitive (labor) market where firms face capacity constraints and individuals differ according to their productivity. Firms offer two-dimensional contracts like wage and task level. Then workers choose firms and contracts. Workers might be rationed if the number of applicants exceeds the capacity of the firm. We show that under reasonable assumptions on the distribution of capacity an equilibrium in pure strategies (by the firms) exists. This result stands in contrast to the case of unlimited capacity. The utility level is uniquely determined in equilibrium. No rationing occurs in equilibrium, but it does off the equilibrium path. Received: December 29, 1999; revised version: November 30, 2000     

Market clearing and derivative pricing

Summary. We develop a method of assigning unique prices to derivative securities, including options, in the continuous-time finance model developed in Raimondo (2001). In contrast with the martingale method of valuing options, which cannot distinguish among infinitely many possible option pricing processes for a given underlying securities price process when markets are dynamically incomplete, our option prices are uniquely determined in equilibrium in closed form as a function of the underlying economic data.Received: 14 April 2003, Revised: 7 January 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: G13, D52.This paper is dedicated to Birgit Grodal, whose strength and character we greatly admire. We are very grateful to Darrell Duffie, Steve Evans, Botond Koszegi, Roger Purves, Jacob Sagi, Chris Shannon, Bill Zame and an anonymous refereee for very helpful discussions and comments. The work of both authors was supported by Grant SES-9710424, and Andersons work was supported by Grant SES-0214164, from the National Science Foundation.     

Two-settlement Systems for Electricity Markets under Network Uncertainty and Market Power

We analyze welfare and distributional properties of a two-settlement system consisting of a spot market over a two-node network and a single energy forward contract. We formulate and analyze several models which simulate joint dispatch of energy and transmission resources coordinated by a system operator. The spot market is subject to network uncertainty, which we model as a random capacity derating of an important transmission line. Using a duopoly model, we show that even for small probabilities of congestion (derating), forward trading may be substantially reduced, and the market power mitigating effect of forward markets (as shown in Allaz and Vila 1993) may be nullified to a great extent. There is a spot transmission charge reflecting transportation costs from location of generation to a designated hub whose price is the underlying for the forward contract. This alleviates some of the incentive problems associated with the forward market in which spot-market trading is residual. We find that the reduction in forward trading is due to the segregation of the markets in the constrained state, and the absence of natural incentives for generators to commit to more aggressive behavior in the spot market (the strategic substitutes effect). In our analysis, we find that the standard assumption of no-arbitrage across forward and spot markets leads to very little contract coverage, even for the case with no congestion. We present an alternative view of the market where limited intertemporal arbitrage enables temporal price discrimination by competing duopolists. In this framework, we assume that all of the demand shows up in the forward market (or that the market is cleared against an accurate forecast of the demand), and the forward price is determined using a market clearing condition.     

论中国期货市场价格操纵行为监控体系的构建

为防范我国期货市场的价格操纵行为，在详细剖析期货市场价格操纵行为的具体表现形式及其成因的基础上，采用定性与定量相结合的方法系统构建了防范期货市场价格操纵行为的监控体系，包括监控组织机构、监控数据库系统、价格和仓单自动监控系统、大户监控报告系统、不当交易举报系统和监控反应机制六个部余对扼制我国期货市场的价格操纵行为给出具体的对策建议。     

Tradeable permits,missing markets,and technology

This paper examines the effects of missing markets, heterogeneous pollutants, and the pollution technology of firms on the efficacy of transferable pollution permits. Under the assumption of perfect competition in all markets, we show that if firms can substitute among pollutants, then setting the optimal number of permits for only one pollutant will not, in general, lead to an efficient outcome. The degree of the inefficiency will depend on the information set available to the regulator and the substitutability among pollutants by firms. When establishing transferable pollution rights regulators should, therefore, consider the technology of firms. If firms discharge pollutants in the same fixed proportions, then the regulator need only set a market for one of the pollutants to ensure an efficient outcome. Where firms can substitute among pollutants, however, establishing a market for only one pollutant provides an incentive for firms to substitute to unregulated ones. This is an important policy issue as substitutability among pollutants within and across production processes may dampen the dynamic advantages of a tradeable permit policy.