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91.
92.
Andrew Hughes Hallett Christian Richter 《International Economics and Economic Policy》2009,6(2):85-101
This paper makes three contributions. First we present a technique by which the monetary transmission mechanism of Germany,
France, the UK and the Eurozone can be decomposed into its component cycles, compared across economies and across time. As
a result, we found that the individual data generating processes have varied over time. Second we show that Germany has now
converged on the rest of Europe and not vice versa, although Germany had dominated monetary policy making in Europe for many
years. Third, we show that the UK as an outsider has behaved like a peripheral EMU country, even when EMU was not in place.
In other words, the transmission mechanisms of Germany and the UK were fundamentally different. Hence, when that German monetary
policy dominated Europe in a way that was not in line with the rest of Europe, never mind the UK, it is no surprise that the
UK eventually left the ERM (1992). The current financial crisis may enforce the trend of convergence of the transmission mechanism.
But there have been signs of a divergence between core and periphery, to some extent involving the UK, so this general convergence,
as opposed to tighter convergence in the core, may not last.
相似文献
Christian RichterEmail: |
93.
房地产价格传导货币政策效果的实证研究 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
货币政策作为调控宏观经济的重要政策手段,它的经济效果需要通过诸多渠道传导来得到体现。国内外学者关于房地产价格对货币政策传导的研究还处于起步阶段,特别是国内的研究还存在着较大的争议。为了进一步检验房地产价格对我国货币政策传导的效果,本文选取2001年3月至2005年12月的月度数据,运用Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、向量自回归模型(VAR)、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解检验等多种计量方法,对我国房地产价格传导的货币政策效果进行实证分析,结果表明房地产价格传导我国货币政策存在着阻碍,并没有表现出显著的财富效应和投资效应,利率也不能充分发挥对房地产市场的调节作用,为完善房地产价格对货币政策的传导提供了理论依据。 相似文献
94.
人民币汇率的变动会影响中国的国际收支,进而对人民币供给形成冲击,即产生人民币汇率的货币供给效应。本文从静态和动态两个层面对人民币汇率的货币供给效应强度及其传递效果进行实证研究。结果表明,人民币汇率变动具有比较稳定的货币供给效应,这一效应随着人民币汇率弹性的增大而有所增强;从传递效果来看,人民币汇率对国际收支的作用效力较弱,而国际收支与货币供给的关联性很强,说明人民币汇率的货币供给效应在人民币汇率作用于国际收支这一传递环节发生了较大减损。为控制人民币汇率变动对货币供给的不利扰动,近期首先要加强对资本流入的监管,增强人民币汇率变动对国际收支影响的预期的准确性和可控性;其次是推进中国的外汇储备形成机制改革,切断或弱化国际收支影响货币供给的传递路径。从长远来看,要增强人民币汇率的调节作用,促进国际收支平衡。 相似文献
95.
96.
汇率波动、货币政策传导渠道及有效性——兼论"不可能三角"在我国的适用性 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文尝试把人民币汇率波动纳入货币政策中介目标监控体系,采用1996年1季度至2008年2季度的季度数据进行实证检验。研究表明:(1)我国货币政策是通过货币渠道来影响实际经济总量的,并且狭义货币供应量更能实现对实际产出目标的传导和调控;(2)人民币汇率波动的扩大会减少货币供应量;(3)不可能三角在我国是成立的;(4)将人民币汇率波动纳入货币政策中介目标监控体系能提高货币政策的有效性。 相似文献
97.
《Food Policy》2013
Price transmission models are estimated using recursive methods across 100 food commodities. From the individual commodities, short- and long-run price transmission coefficients are estimated for rising and falling prices. These coefficients are classified into five commodity categories and expressed as one vector while coding for causality, market levels, rising/falling prices, short and long run, and time period. Then the impact of each variable is estimated and inferences are drawn about the degree of price transmission. Results show that price linkages are strong but slightly declining over time, with some evidence of asymmetric behavior. Long-run rising prices are passed through more than long-run falling prices, except for fruits and vegetables. 相似文献
98.
99.
A theoretical analysis of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is provided, formulating the conditions under which the
NKPC coincides with a real-world relation that is not spurious or misspecified. A time-varying-coefficient (TVC) model, involving
only observed variables, is shown to exactly represent the underlying “true” NKPC under certain conditions. In contrast, “hybrid”
NKPC models, which add lagged-inflation and supply-shock variables, are shown to be spurious and misspecified. We also show
how to empirically implement the NKPC under the assumption that expectations are formed rationally.
We are grateful to C. D. Aliprantis, Harris Dellas and Arnold Zellner for helpful comments. The questions and comments of
an anonymous referee were extremely stimulating. The views expressed are the authors’ own and do not constitute policy of
their respective institutions. 相似文献
100.
This paper shows that a spurious regression can occur between two stationary generalized fractional processes, as long as their generalized fractional differencing parameters sum up to a value greater than 0.5 and their spectral densities have poles at the same location. This theoretical finding is supported by simulations. 相似文献