证券市场流动性综合指标及计量理论

证券市场流动性包含了价格因素、量因素和交易时间因素三方面内容，但现有的众多流动性测度指标只衡量市场的某一方面因素。本文提出了等流动性概念，并以此为理论基础构造综合性流动性指标的计量模型。综合性的指标能够克服单一指标的缺陷，全面地刻画价、量和时间的三方面因素。本文使用上交所的指令数据对该模型进行了实证和检验，得到的综合指标和模型参数有明确的理论和现实意义，对各类传统的流动性指标也有较好的解释力，为理论和实务提供了一个具有分析力的理论框架。     

Economic significance of predictability in Australian equities

This paper examines evidence of predictability in Australian equities using both statistical and economic metrics of significance. A probit‐based predictive model is used to forecast the probability that the 1 month ahead excess market return will be positive. Funds under management are then switched between equities and fixed income on the basis of this forecast. Although the statistical evidence of the model's predictive ability is mixed, the results suggest convincing evidence of an economically significant degree of return predictability. A $A1 investment in the switching strategy (market) in January 1980 grows to over $A55 ($A39) by June 2007. Although the economic significance of the switching strategy remains even in the presence of high transaction costs, robustness checks suggest that the seemingly impressive full‐sample results might be sample specific. The apparent superiority of the portfolio‐switching strategy can be traced to a handful of observations early in the study during which the predictive model provides a timely signal to exit equities. There is little evidence that the predictive model has forecasting ability across the entire sample. As such, this paper serves both to illustrate how alternate metrics of return predictability can lead to divergent conclusions, and to emphasize the importance of subjecting apparent findings of predictability to robustness checks.     

Realism Versus Statistical Efficiency: A Note on Contingent Valuation with Follow-up Queries

This paper shows that we can improve the statistical efficiency of dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys by asking a second open question (anchored open-ended approach) instead of the traditional double-bounded approach. The former approach is shown to be more efficient than conventional single and double-bounded approaches using a Monte Carlo experiment, even when we allow for strategic behavior from respondents such as protest votes and yea-saying behavior.

A new method for assessing the sustainability of land-use systems (II): Evaluating impact indicators

In the past decade, numerous indicators and indicator sets for sustainable agriculture and sustainable land management have been proposed. In addition to their interest in comparing different management systems on an indicator by indicator basis, land managers are often interested in comparing individual indicators against a threshold, or, in order to study trade-offs, against each other. To this end it is necessary to (1) transform the original indicators into a comparable format, and (2) score these transformed indicators against a sustainability function.This paper introduces an evaluation method for land-use-related impact indicators, which was designed to accomplish these tasks. It is the second of a series of two papers, and as such it links into a larger framework for sustainability assessment of land use systems.The evaluation scheme introduced here comprises (1) a standardisation procedure, which aims at making different indicators comparable. In this procedure indicators are first normalised, by referencing them to the total impact they contribute towards, and then they are corrected by a factor describing the severity of this total impact in terms of exceeding a threshold. The procedure borrows conceptually from Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Impact Analysis methodology; (2) a valuation procedure, which judges the individual standardised indicators with regard to sustainability.This methodology is then tested on an indicator set for the environmental impact of a spinach production system in Northwest Germany. The method highlights mineral resource consumption, greenhouse gas emission, eutrophication and impacts on soil quality as the most important environmental effects of the studied system.We then explore the effect of introducing weighting factors, reflecting the differing societal perception of diverse environmental issues. Two different sets of weighting factors are used. The influence of weighting is, however, small compared to that of the standardisation procedure introduced earlier.Finally, we explore the propagation of uncertainty (defined as a variable's 95% confidence limits) throughout the standardisation procedure using a stochastic simulation approach. The uncertainty of the analysed standardised indicator was higher than that of the non-standardised indicators by a factor of 2.0 to 2.5.     

Human appropriation of natural capital: A comparison of ecological footprint and water footprint analysis

The water footprint concept introduced in 2002 is an analogue of the ecological footprint concept originating from the 1990s. Whereas the ecological footprint (EF) denotes the bioproductive area (hectares) needed to sustain a population, the water footprint (WF) represents the freshwater volume (cubic metres per year) required. In elaborating the WF concept into a well-defined quantifiable indicator, a number of methodological issues have been addressed, with many similarities to the methodological concerns in EF analysis. The methodology followed in WF studies is in most cases analogous to the methodology taken in EF studies, but deviates at some points. Well-reasoned it has been chosen for instance to specifically take into account the source and production circumstances of products and assess the actual water use involved, thus not taking global averages. As a result one can exactly localise the spatial distribution of a water footprint of a country. With respect to the outcome of the footprint estimates, one can see both similarities and striking differences. Food consumption for instance contributes significantly to both the EF and the WF, but mobility (and associated energy use) is very important only for the EF. From a sustainability perspective, the WF of a country tells another story and thus at times will put particular development strategies in a different perspective. The paper reviews and compares the methodologies in EF and WF studies, compares nation's footprint estimates and suggests how the two concepts can be interpreted in relation to one another. The key conclusion is that the two concepts are to be regarded as complementary in the sustainability debate.     

基于“两型社会”视角的城市化质量研究——以湖南为例

采用聚类分析、相关分析、因子分析等方法,构建了湖南城市化质量评价体系,并运用综合评价方法对湖南的城市化质量进行了分析,结果表明:建立具有"两型社会"理念的城市化质量综合评价体系对提升湖南城市化的质量将起到十分重要的促进作用.     

基于AHP的旅游供应链绩效评价实证研究

旅游市场竞争由旅游企业之间的竞争逐渐转变为旅游供应链之间的竞争,层次分析法(AHP)为旅游供应链绩效评价提供了思路.在分析旅游供应链绩效评价内涵基础上,构建了一个适用于层次分析法的旅游供应链绩效评价指标体系和绩效评价模型,并以罗定市快乐天旅行社为例,对它的上游旅游供应企业的产品价格、生产能力、信用、投诉率、管理水平进行研究,来检测AHP对旅游供应链绩效评价的效用.     

中国新经济:作用、特征与挑战

在创新发展理念和创新发展战略的引领下,在一系列政策措施的推动下,新经济正在中国迅速成长,对经济发展和人民生活产生了巨大影响。本文首先从宏观角度阐述了新经济迅速发展的情况及其在减缓传统经济增速下行压力、促进经济结构转型升级、推动高质量发展、转变人们生活方式等方面发挥的重要作用;其次,根据对全国9省市的29家新经济企业的调研情况,从微观角度对新经济企业的发展状况和重要特征,在高质量发展中的作用、遇到的困难和问题等进行了研究。本文进一步探讨了新经济给政府统计带来的挑战,并就如何应对这些挑战提出了若干思考。最后,本文提出了促进新经济持续健康发展的政策建议。     

试论房地产市场的过热与泡沫

近期房价过高已引起各个方面的关心和重视,由此引发了关于我国房地产市场是否存在过热和泡沫的问题的讨论,本文就此问题展开初步的讨论。文章从房地产市场的过热与泡沫问题的概念出发,在对我国房地产市场的“国房景气指数”、开发投资指标、商品房空置率指标和房价收入指标的基础上分析,我们可以得到我国房地产不存在房地产泡沫,但要警惕泡沫出现的结论。     

“农民工城市融合度”评价指标体系研究——对欧盟社会融合指标和移民整合指数的借鉴

农民工的城市融合是一个多维度的概念,它并非仅指农民工单方面融入城市的过程,更重要的是农民工和城市居民之间的相互接纳和认同的过程。农民工城市融合度的测量应该从城市层面和个体层面两个层次进行。其中,城市层面的城市融合包括政策融合和总体融合两个方面：政策融合是从城市与农民工相关的政策角度去测量农民工的城市融合状况,总体融合是从整个城市农民工总体来评价农民工的城市融合状况;而个体层面,既要考察农民工主观融合感受和评价,又要观察农民工客观融合状态。因此,＂农民工城市融合度＂评价指标体系应该从＂农民工城市融合政策指数＂、＂农民工城市融合总体指数＂和＂农民工城市融合个体指数＂三个方面进行构建。