消费领域的量化自我:研究述评与展望

量化自我是指消费者对自我数据进行收集并经由数据获得自我知识的过程。量化自我能增强消费者的自我精准管控和行为理性,驱动消费者行为方式的转变。数据驱动的量化自我时代正在来临,全新的商业逻辑正在被建立起来。消费者的行为正从非标准化向精准化转变。鉴于此,越来越多学者开始围绕量化自我展开研究,在清晰界定量化自我概念的基础上,分析量化自我的参与动机与阶段性过程,关注量化自我带来的消费者精准化消费方式转变。本文系统回顾了量化自我相关研究,阐释了量化自我的概念与本质,从量化自我的类型与效用、动机与过程等方面对相关研究进行了述评,整理提炼了量化自我在消费领域的应用现状,并在此基础上明确了量化自我研究尚需解决的问题和未来的研究方向。     

Atypical work: a threat to labour productivity growth? Some evidence from Italy

Various theories suggest the existence of a negative relationship between the use of atypical employment contracts and productivity growth, arguing that firms’ utilisation of atypical contracts may reduce the incentive to innovate and internal training, inducing firms to follow a ‘low-road’ to competitiveness, based upon cost-cutting strategies.

This paper aims to provide new evidence on the occurrence of these effects in the Italian economy, where changes in labour legislation from the mid-Nineties onwards, associated with an ‘institutional’ wage moderation period, have brought about a significant process of job creation, but also an appreciable slowdown in labour productivity.

This issue is investigated using a microeconomic approach, taking a rich source of microdata for firms and estimating a dynamic model for labour productivity on a pseudo-panel of firms for the period 2003-2008.

The results support the hypothesis of a negative impact of external labour flexibility on labour productivity growth at firm level, such effect proving stronger for small and medium than for large enterprises and of varying magnitude for the different atypical contracts.     

FDI是否促进了中国城市的郊区化?--基于卫星夜间灯光数据的实证检验

城市郊区化是国内外城市发展过程中不可避免的现象。伴随着城市化的不断发展,中国的城市郊区化问题也受到了越来越多的关注,但FDI 作为各个地方旧城改造和新区开发的重要力量,其对中国城市空间的形态塑造作用却被忽视了。文章基于单中心城市模型的理论假设,将FDI 因素纳入分析城市郊区化的框架,通过全球夜间灯光数据、Landscan 人口分布数据和中国行政区域矢量数据构造了中国城市市辖区层面的郊区化指数和蔓延指数,并利用2003-2013年中国地级及以上城市市辖区面板数据检验了FDI 对城市郊区化的影响。研究表明：(1)FDI 是促进我国城市郊区化的关键因素,FDI 占GDP 的比重每提高1%,我国城市郊区化的水平会相应地提高0.1%;(2)由于FDI 在我国存在区域分布的不平衡性,因此其对不同区域的城市郊区化的促进作用有所差异,外资进入显著地促进了东部地区的城市郊区化发展,但外资进入对中西部地区的城市郊区化的影响并不显著。因此,各地方政府应格外关注FDI 可能带来的城市低密度蔓延现象,并检视自身的城市发展战略。     

Bootstrap J-Test for Panel Data Models with Spatially Dependent Error Components,a Spatial Lag and Additional Endogenous Variables

We develop a bootstrap J-test method for testing a panel model against one non-nested alternative when the competing specifications are estimated by Feasible Generalised Spatial Two Stage Least Squares/Generalised Method of Moments (FGS2SLS/GMM). Both models incorporate spatially correlated error components, thus accounting for spatial heterogeneity via random effects, and accommodate endogenous regressors other than the spatially lagged dependent variable. The proposed scheme is applied to a testing problem involving non-nested wage equations as motivated by the Wage Curve literature and the New Economic Geography theory. Results show that our bootstrap test is a reliable and effective procedure for correcting asymptotic reference critical values and distinguishing between the two rival hypotheses.     

Do women borrowers augment financial performance of MFIs?

There is some consensus that depth of outreach and financial performance of Microfinance Institutions (MFI) are positively correlated. A majority of microcredit borrowers are women and since the prevalence of female borrowers is even greater among the very poor, there should be a positive correlation between female borrowers and financial performance. Most of the MFIs target women as preferred borrowers. However, no study to date has investigated the relationship between targeting women and MFI’s sustainability with respect to profitability and yield. Utilizing a panel of 892 MFIs over a period of 10 years, this study shows that increased proportion of women borrowers has a statistically significant positive impact on yield and financial performance of MFIs. Consequently, this article also analyses the implication as to whether female borrowers have better repayment rate than male borrowers.     

Explaining divorce rate determinants: new evidence from Spain

This article examines the main determinants of divorce rates in Spain for the period 1995 to 2010. According to the results, the so-called Express Divorce Law (passed in 2005) seems to be positively associated with divorce rates in the short term. Income level and growth, female employment rate, and the proportion of foreign population are also positively related to divorce rates. However, as expected, the percentage of conservative vote seems to have a negative impact.     

Heterogeneous determinants of local unemployment in Poland

We identify determinants of large disparities in local unemployment rates across Poland. Using an extensive panel data-set on the NUTS-4 level (i.e. the poviats level, or districts or counties level) we examine a wide range of determinants of local unemployment. Our research examines two groups of the determinants: one related to equilibrium theory and the other related to disequilibrium theory of local unemployment. We find that demographics, education and sectoral employment composition exert a stronger impact over rates of local unemployment than various demand factors. The impact of the determinants, while robust for outliers, is not homogeneous across Polish regions. In particular, in the most depressed local labour markets, skill improvement programmes do not appear to work and unemployment rates are relatively less responsive to investment. Our research suggests that there is no easy cure for local unemployment in Poland, but a few policies have the potential to slightly reduce existing disparities.     

机构投资者影响我国股价波动的实证研究

采用 TGARCH 模型对机构投资者与我国股指波动的关系进行研究,实证结果表明：无论是否考虑宏观经济因素对股票市场的影响,机构投资者对我国股票市场波动均产生正向影响。进一步用面板数据模型对机构投资者与上市公司股价波动的关系进行研究,发现机构投资者在不同宏观经济环境下也均未起到稳定上市公司股价波动的作用。     

Population Structure and Housing Prices: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

This study analyzes the relationship between the proportion of the economically active population aged 15–64 to total population and housing prices. A panel of 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2014 is used in our analysis. We find empirical evidence that the impact of the population structure on housing-price growth increases as the population growth rates rise. This observation suggests that, to understand provincial housing price movements in China, one should consider the ratio of working-age population to total population in a province. The main policy implication is that Chinese policymakers need to ensure a moderated population growth to effectively promote stability in housing prices and the economy.     

The influence of intraday seasonality on volatility transmission pattern

Using data on a five-minute interval basis, this article analyses the effects of intraday seasonality on volatility transmission between the spot and futures markets of the CAC40, DAX30 and FTSE100. Remarkable differences in the impulse response analysis and in the dynamic and directional measurement of volatility spillovers are encountered depending on whether the intraday periodic component is considered. Thus, the convenience of removing intraday seasonality seems to be critical to reduce the risk of spurious causality when employing high-frequency data in volatility transmission. Moreover, the impact of market microstructure noise seems negligible when using an optimal frequency of observations.