Analyzing tactical control strategies for aircraft arrivals at an airport using a queuing model

This paper proposes to analyze control strategies for arrival air traffic at an airport using a classical queuing model. The parameters of our model are estimated by means of a data-driven analysis of two years of radar tracks and flight plans for arrival flights at Tokyo International Airport from 2016 to 2017. Our results show that increasing the capacity with one or two more aircraft in the airspace up to 60 NM around the airport significantly mitigates arrival delays, even when assuming future, increased arrival traffic volumes. The outcomes of this study provide insights into the effectiveness of arrival control strategies and are seen as a means to recommend scenarios to be further analyzed with human-in-the-loop simulations.     

The role of lifetime activity cues in customer base analysis

This paper develops the notion of lifetime activity cues in customer base analysis. The authors first discuss the impact of lifetime indicators, such as customers' conceptual response to marketing activities, and then demonstrate how such lifetime cues can be embedded into the Pareto/NBD model. The authors theoretically analyze the implication of this additional behavioral indication on the model's predictions. In an illustrative example, they aim to establish an intuitive understanding of the effects of such information. Evidence from the cellular phone industry supports the relevance of this concept: The empirical study finds a substantial improvement in predictive accuracy in two independent holdout samples. The study concludes with a discussion of the managerial relevance of the proposed approach and opportunities for further research.     

Interpreting cross-section and time-series tests of convergence: the case of labor productivity in manufacturing

This paper investigates whether a disaggregated measure, labor productivity in manufacturing, is converging across eight OECD countries during the period 1950–1998 using both cross-section and time series tests of convergence. The evidence indicates convergence using either test for the full sample, but tests over subperiods suggest that the dynamics of the underlying series change from economies in transition in the early years to economies in balanced, but parallel, growth paths in the later period. The results confirm that the appropriate test for convergence depends on the underlying structure of the data.     

试析媒介融合背景下二维码对广告业的影响

在媒介融合的时代背景下,手机广告作为一种新兴的广告形式日益引起人们广泛关注。相对于传统媒体广告,二维码广告具有受众卷入程度高、传播内容立体化、较强的伴随性和互动性等特点。本文从精确测定广告效果、精准定位消费者、拓宽广告营销渠道、改变广告传播方式等四方面探讨了二维码对广告业的影响,并预测随着互联网的发展、智能手机的普及、3G服务的渗透,手机直接访问互联网将越来越便利,二维码这一新型广告形式将大有作为。     

Hands-off? Lessons from high-touch professionals about going virtual

The COVID-19 crisis has fundamentally changed how many businesses operate and connect with their customers. Previously unheard-of government restrictions and sheltering-in-place requirements forced most professional services to transition to remote delivery methods (e.g., email, telephone, video consults, Shopify storefronts). Providers of low-touch services (e.g., lawyers, accountants) naturally lent themselves to remote delivery; however, those that offer high-touch services, particularly those in healthcare (e.g., doctors, chiropractors, physical therapists), experienced a drastic change in working conditions when going virtual. Despite a long history of resistance to virtual delivery, the pandemic created an unprecedented incentive for these high-touch professionals to experiment with underutilized care models such as telehealth: the provision of healthcare services remotely using telecommunications technologies. We examine the rapid adoption of telehealth during COVID-19 through the coming together or convergence of previously unrelated technologies, spaces, and practices. Our analysis reveals opportunities and challenges associated with going hands-off that apply to many other professionals providing high-trust services. Specifically, we offer nine guiding principles for building and protecting cognitive and affective trust in virtual and hybrid delivery models. This is important given the pace of compounding technology convergences that lie ahead for service professionals.     

The nexus between competition and efficiency: The European banking industries experience

In this paper, we investigate competition in banking systems in the EU27 as a whole for the period 2004–2010, but also for old members’ banking systems compared with new members’ banking systems and for banking systems from countries member of euro zone compares with banking systems from countries non-member of euro zone. In order to investigate this issue, we estimate a non-structural indicator of banking competition, using the H-statistic indicator that is estimated using bank-level data. Also, we apply two tests of convergence, β- and σ-convergence, for assessing competition evolution during the specified period. We want to fill the gap in the banking literature testing the validity of the Competition–Efficiency Hypothesis, analysing the impact of the banking competition measures on two alternative measures of efficiency, cost and profit efficiency, in the European banking systems in a Granger-causality manner. The results confirm us that in the EU the convergence process occur from the banking systems with higher competition level than the mean score of all countries. The evidence for all groups of countries, except non-euro zone group, where results are not statistically significant, confirm the Competition–Efficiency Hypothesis in terms of cost and profit efficiency.     

Optimal high-frequency trading with limit and market orders

We propose a framework for studying optimal market-making policies in a limit order book (LOB). The bid–ask spread of the LOB is modeled by a tick-valued continuous-time Markov chain. We consider a small agent who continuously submits limit buy/sell orders at best bid/ask quotes, and may also set limit orders at best bid (resp. ask) plus (resp. minus) a tick for obtaining execution order priority, which is a crucial issue in high-frequency trading. The agent faces an execution risk since her limit orders are executed only when they meet counterpart market orders. She is also subject to inventory risk due to price volatility when holding the risky asset. The agent can then also choose to trade with market orders, and therefore obtain immediate execution, but at a less favorable price. The objective of the market maker is to maximize her expected utility from revenue over a short-term horizon by a trade-off between limit and market orders, while controlling her inventory position. This is formulated as a mixed regime switching regular/impulse control problem that we characterize in terms of a quasi-variational system by dynamic programming methods. Calibration procedures are derived for estimating the transition matrix and intensity parameters for the spread and for Cox processes modelling the execution of limit orders. We provide an explicit backward splitting scheme for solving the problem and show how it can be reduced to a system of simple equations involving only the inventory and spread variables. Several computational tests are performed both on simulated and real data, and illustrate the impact and profit when considering execution priority in limit orders and market orders.     

Valuing executive stock options: performance hurdles, early exercise and stochastic volatility

Accounting standards require companies to assess the fair value of any stock options granted to executives and employees. We develop a model for accurately valuing executive and employee stock options, focusing on performance hurdles, early exercise and uncertain volatility. We apply the model in two case studies and show that properly computed fair values can be significantly lower than traditional Black–Scholes values. We then explore the implications for pay-for-performance sensitivity and the design of effective share-based incentive schemes. We find that performance hurdles can require a much greater fraction of total compensation to be a fixed salary, if pre-existing incentive levels are to be maintained.     

A case study of condition based maintenance modelling based upon the oil analysis data of marine diesel engines using stochastic filtering

This paper presents a case study of condition based maintenance modelling based on measured metal concentrations observed in oil samples of a fleet of marine diesel engines. The decision model for optimising the replacement time of the diesel engines conditional on observed measurements is derived and applied to the case discussed. We described the datasets, which were cleaned and re-organised according to the need of the research. The residual time distribution required in the decision model was formulated using a technique called stochastic filtering. Procedures for model parameter estimation are constructed and discussed in detail. The residual life model presented has been fitted to the case data, and the modelling outputs are discussed.     

The market price of risk of the variance term structure

In this paper I examine the market price of risk of the variance term structure. To this end, the S&P 500 option implied variance term structure is used as a proxy for aggregate variance risk. Principal component analysis shows that time variation in the variance term structure over the 1996–2012 period can be explained mainly by two factors which capture changes in the level and slope. The market price of risk of each factor is estimated in the cross-section of stock returns. The slope of the variance term structure is the most significant factor in the cross-section of stocks returns and carries a negative risk premium. The slope factor has also some predictive ability over long horizon equity returns.