中国的经济发展战略与地区收入差距

本文认为 ,当前中国大陆各省区市之间发展水平差距的主要原因在于 ,重工业优先发展的赶超战略下形成的生产要素存量配置结构 ,与许多省区市的要素禀赋结构决定的比较优势相违背 ,从而导致大量的赶超企业缺乏自生能力。基于各省区市的数据进行的实证研究与我们的假说相容。     

A semi-analytic method for valuing high-dimensional options on the maximum and minimum of multiple assets

Valuing high-dimensional options has many important applications in finance but when the true distributions are unknown or complex, numerical approximations must be used. Approximation methods based on Monte-Carlo simulation show a steep trade-off between estimation accuracy and computational efficiency. This article presents an alternative semi-analytic approximation method for pricing options on the maximum or minimum of multiple assets with unknown distributions. Computational efficiency is shown to improve significantly without sacrificing estimation accuracy. The method is illustrated with applications to options on underlying assets with mean-reverting prices, time-dependent correlations, and stochastic volatility The authors would like to thank the two anonymous referees, the associate editor, and Dr. Jess H. Chua at the University of Calgary for valuable comments and insights on this research. This research was partly supported by NUS grant R-146-000-059-112     

中国与东南亚国家贸易潜力及影响因素研究——基于随机前沿引力模型

运用时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型,以1998-2016年中国及东南亚九个国家面板数据为样本,测度中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力,并分析其主要影响因素。结果表明：1998-2016年中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力呈现先上升后下降趋势,依然有较大提升空间,中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力差异较大。航空运输货运量、货币自由度、财务自由度、商业自由度及世界贸易组织成员国均对出口贸易非效率具有显著的影响。     

The market price of risk of the variance term structure

In this paper I examine the market price of risk of the variance term structure. To this end, the S&P 500 option implied variance term structure is used as a proxy for aggregate variance risk. Principal component analysis shows that time variation in the variance term structure over the 1996–2012 period can be explained mainly by two factors which capture changes in the level and slope. The market price of risk of each factor is estimated in the cross-section of stock returns. The slope of the variance term structure is the most significant factor in the cross-section of stocks returns and carries a negative risk premium. The slope factor has also some predictive ability over long horizon equity returns.     

Convergence analysis and optimal strike choice for static hedges of general path-independent pay-offs

In this paper, we propose a new algorithm to find the optimal static replicating portfolios for general path-independent nonlinear pay-off functions and give an estimate for the rate of convergence that is absent in the literature. We choose the static replication by designing an adaptation function arising in the error bound between the nonlinear pay-off function and the linear spline approximation and derive the equidistribution equation for selecting the optimal strikes. The numerical tests for variance swaps, swaptions, static quadratic hedges and also for a jump-diffusion process, allowing for the default of the underlying asset, show that the proposed iterative equidistribution equation algorithm is simple, fast and accurate. The paper generalizes and improves the results on static replication and approximation in the literature.     

高技术服务业与资源型产业融合对资源型企业两阶段创新效率的影响

基于新技术与新知识的高技术服务业跨界融合是传统企业实现创新资源优化配置、创新研发和商业转化的重要因素。因此，运用熵指数测度全国各省区高技术服务业与资源型产业融合水平，并利用2014—2017年资源型上市公司面板数据检验两大产业融合对资源型企业两阶段创新效率的影响，同时探讨企业吸收能力的调节作用。结果表明：现阶段高技术服务业和资源型产业融合程度不高，但发展态势良好，处于从失调走向协调的转变期；产业融合对资源型企业创新研发效率短期无显著影响，长期存在抑制作用，资源型企业技术能力刚性导致对新技术的排斥，且较大的产业间认知差距削弱了产业间良性互动带来的技术扩散效应；产业融合对创新转化效率呈先抑制、后促进效应，就长期而言，产业融合具有良好的创新转化推动力；资源型企业吸收能力分别在产业融合与滞后一期创新研发效率及滞后三期创新转化效率的关系中起正向、负向调节作用，表明资源型企业吸收能力构建尚不全面。     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

A general endogenous grid method for multi-dimensional models with non-convexities and constraints

The endogenous grid method (EGM) significantly speeds up the solution of stochastic dynamic programming problems by simplifying or completely eliminating root-finding. We propose a general and parsimonious EGM extended to handle (1) multiple continuous states and choices, (2) multiple occasionally binding constraints, and (3) non-convexities such as discrete choices. Our method enjoys the speed gains of the original one-dimensional EGM, while avoiding expensive interpolation on multi-dimensional irregular endogenous grids. We explicitly define a broad class of models for which our solution method is applicable, and illustrate its speed and accuracy using a consumption–saving model with both liquid assets and illiquid pension assets and a discrete retirement choice.     

Short-time at-the-money skew and rough fractional volatility

The Black–Scholes implied volatility skew at the money of SPX options is known to obey a power law with respect to the time to maturity. We construct a model of the underlying asset price process which is dynamically consistent to the power law. The volatility process of the model is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter less than half. The fractional Brownian motion is correlated with a Brownian motion which drives the asset price process. We derive an asymptotic expansion of the implied volatility as the time to maturity tends to zero. For this purpose, we introduce a new approach to validate such an expansion, which enables us to treat more general models than in the literature. The local-stochastic volatility model is treated as well under an essentially minimal regularity condition in order to show such a standard model cannot be dynamically consistent to the power law.