财政政策、货币政策调控与宏观经济稳定——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析

本文基于包含金融加速器的新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争框架,研究了财政政策和货币政策冲击对我国宏观经济的影响。实证结果表明,财政政策能够解释部分就业、消费和资本存量波动;货币政策冲击则能够解释大部分通货膨胀、就业波动,以及部分产出、消费和投资波动。总体上,模型能够较好地刻画中国宏观经济波动特征。本文认为今后一段时期内,应当将财政政策更多转向民生领域和基础设施建设,重视货币政策调控,从而更有效地调控宏观经济运行。     

THE BIAS OF THE MULTIPLIER MATRIX WHEN SUPPLY AND USE TABLES ARE STOCHASTIC

The literature on stochastic input–output (I–O) analysis has paid considerable attention to the bias in the Leontief inverse. This paper extends previous studies by assuming supply and use tables (SUTs rather than I–O tables or input coefficients matrices) to be stochastic. This is a natural starting point because SUTs have become the basic data sources for I–O applications. In a Monte Carlo simulation experiment, a given SUT is randomized in two different ways and the effects are determined for eight different multiplier matrices. The analysis is carried out for Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and Finland, using their SUTs for 2006. The findings indicate that, in general, biases are statistically significant but negligibly small. This corroborates earlier findings obtained for stochastic I–O tables.     

税收优惠政策与高技术产业创新效率

研究目标：分析税收优惠政策对创新效率的影响以及创新效率的收敛性,测度税收优惠政策对创新带来的实际贡献。研究方法：构建随机前沿模型测度高技术产业的创新效率,采用σ收敛和β收敛检验方法检验创新效率收敛性,并采用反事实计量方法测度税收优惠政策对创新带来的实际贡献。研究发现：税收优惠政策对研发效率有显著正影响,对市场转化效率的影响为正但不显著,政策实施后效率分布也更集中;研发效率的收敛主要是由东中西地区内部之间差距的缩小造成的,而市场转化效率的收敛是由三大地区内部差距的缩小以及中西部和东部地区的差距缩小共同造成的;税收优惠政策使研发效率大约上升了8%～10%,带来的创新产出占总产出的比重也一直维持在10%以上。研究创新：从效率水平和收敛性两个角度来定量分析税收优惠政策对创新效率的影响。研究价值：为更好地采取措施提高创新效率和减小地区创新效率差距提供经验证据。     

技术效率、资本深化与地区差异——基于随机前沿模型的中国地区收敛分析

本文提出了基于随机前沿生产函数的地区增长差异分析框架,将各地区劳均产出差距分解为劳均资本差异、经济规模差异和全要素生产率差异三个部分。利用改革时期的省级数据,本文发现尽管要素投入仍然是中国经济增长的主要源泉,但全要素生产率是造成地区差异的重要原因,在地区劳均产出差异中的贡献份额不断提高,将成为今后中国地区增长差异的主要决定力量。而且,1990年以来中国地区全要素生产率呈现出绝对发散趋势,严重的技术扩散壁垒加剧了体制转轨过程中的“马太效应”,短期内地区差距不会随经济发展而缩小,政府需要通过适当的政策对地区发展进行调节,尤其要促进地区间技术扩散,使各地区更好地分享技术创新和体制创新的成果。     

Consistent inference in fixed-effects stochastic frontier models

The classical stochastic frontier panel data models provide no mechanism to disentangle individual time invariant unobserved heterogeneity from inefficiency. Greene (2005a, b) proposed the so-called “true” fixed-effects specification that distinguishes these two latent components. However, due to the incidental parameters problem, his maximum likelihood estimator may lead to biased variance estimates. We propose two alternative estimators that achieve consistency for $n\to \infty$ with fixed $T$. Furthermore, we extend the Chen et al. (2014) results providing a feasible estimator when the inefficiency is heteroskedastic and follows a first-order autoregressive process. We investigate the behavior of the proposed estimators through Monte Carlo simulations showing good finite sample properties, especially in small samples. An application to hospitals’ technical efficiency illustrates the usefulness of the new approach.     

Stochastic Route Choice Equilibrium Assignment for Travelers with Heterogeneous Regret Aversions

Most route choice models assume that people are completely rational. Recently, regret theory has attracted researchers’ attentions because of its power to depict real travel behavior. This paper proposes a multiclass stochastic user equilibrium assignment model by using regret theory. All users are differentiated by their own regret aversion. The route travel disutility for users of each class is defined as a linear combination of the travel time and anticipated regret. The proposed model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved by using the self-regulated averaging method. The numerical results show that users’ regret aversion indeed influences their route choice behavior and that users with high regret aversion are more inclined to change route choice when the traffic congestion degree varies.     

A stochastic cost efficiency analysis of international tourist hotels in Taiwan

The one-stage stochastic frontier approach (SFA) is used in this study to simultaneously estimate cost efficiency scores and factors of cost inefficiency for 66 international tourist hotels in Taiwan during 1997–2006. An SFA model with three outputs and three inputs is defined. The three outputs are room revenue, food and beverage revenue, and other operation revenue while the three inputs are price of labor, price of other operation, and price of food and beverage. This model also takes into account five environmental variables, including dummy variable of the hotels located in non-metropolitan area, dummy variable of chain hotels, the number of tourist guides, the minimum distance from each hotel to Taoyuan international airport and the minimum distance from each hotel to Kaohsiung international airport. Empirical results show that international tourist hotels in Taiwan are on average operating at 91.15% cost efficiency. All nominal variables are transformed into real variables in 1997 prices by GDP deflators. Chain systems, tourist guides, and international transportation can significantly improve the cost efficiency of international tourist hotels in Taiwan.     

Impact of land fragmentation and resource ownership on productivity and efficiency: The case of rice producers in Bangladesh

The paper analyzes the impact of land fragmentation and ownership of resources on productivity and technical efficiency in rice production in Bangladesh using farm level survey data. Results reveal that land fragmentation has a significant detrimental effect on productivity and efficiency as expected. The elasticity estimates of land fragmentation reveal that a 1% increase in land fragmentation reduces rice output by 0.05% and efficiency by 0.03%. On the other hand, ownership of key resources (land, family labour, and draft animals) significantly increases efficiency. The mean elasticity estimates reveal that a 1% increase in family labour and owned draft animal improve technical efficiency by 0.04% and 0.03%, respectively. Also, a 1% increase in the adoption of modern technology improves efficiency by 0.04%. The mean technical efficiency in rice production is estimated at 0.91 indicating little scope to improve rice production per se using existing varieties. Policy implications include addressing structural causes of land fragmentation (e.g., law of inheritance and political economy of agrarian structure), building of physical capital (e.g., land and livestock resources), improvements in extension services and adoption of modern rice technology.     

我国城市医院经营效率影响因素分析——基于省际面板数据的随机前沿分析

本文利用2003年-2008年我国31个省市自治区医院的面板数据,运用随机前沿模型（SFA）及一阶段估计方法对我国城市医院经营效率的影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明,药品收入比例、卫生技术人员占医院工作人员总人数比例、三级医院占医院总数比例、二级医院占医院总数比例均对医院效率造成影响。而且,通过东、中、西部地区子样本分析得出,在不同地区医院效率及其影响因素之间存在差别,地理因素也应该考虑在医疗改革的政策制定中。因此,医院体制改革应考虑地区间差异,优先改革对一地区造成突出影响的因素。     

CEV模型下有交易成本和随机波动率的亚式期权定价问题的文献综述

随着金融衍生品的发展,对其进行定价成为理论和实务操作中的重点。亚式期权作为一种强依赖路径的衍生品,在金融市场中有套期保值作用,在管理中有经理股票期权激励作用。因此,设计出更加切合市场实际的定价模型非常重要。本文选取了相比较B-S模型更加实际的CEV模型作为标底资产的路径过程,加入随机波波动率服从有限Markov链的情况下有交易成本的亚式期权定价公式。在已有的相关文献参考下,可以得出其偏微分方程。并且通过二叉树算法,实现定价计算。