Tourism demand in Hong Kong: income,prices, and visa restrictions

This paper examines the determinants of Hong Kong tourism demand for the top-three major tourist arrival countries, namely Mainland China, Taiwan, and Japan, with an error correction model. Specifically, this paper will examine the effects of relaxing the visa requirement, the launch of the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS), for Mainland Chinese tourists in 2003. Empirical results show that tourists are income-elastic and consider international tourism to be a luxury good. Tourists are more sensitive to changes in the nominal exchange rate than to changes in the foreign pricing level. The positive effect of the launch of the IVS for Mainland Chinese tourists outweighs the adverse impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) on tourism demand for Hong Kong.     

全球视角下农产品价格上涨的原因探析

2006-2008年,以我国粮油为代表的主要农产品价格大幅上涨。在全球化背景下,农产品价格上涨是由下述三个因素共同影响推动而成的:美元贬值和石油价格上涨;需求强烈、供给增加缓慢的国际农产品供求状况;国内"供弱需强"的供求关系和政府保护的"两难悖论"。此外,国内其他因素如经济持续快速增长、流动性过剩、人民币升值等也间接影响着农产品价格的波动程度。     

中国大豆外贸依存度影响因素分析

本文利用年度数据,测算了1988—2007年中国大豆外贸依存度,并对中国大豆外贸依存度的变化趋势特征进行了分析。在此基础上,构建了中国大豆外贸依存度实证模型,定量分析了中国大豆外贸依存度的影响因素。研究结果表明:国内大豆压榨需求和大豆关税税率的变化对中国大豆外贸依存度具有显著影响;而国内外大豆价格差、外汇储备以及实施转基因安全管理条例等因素对中国大豆外贸依存度的影响不显著。     

中国能源需求向量自回归模型的建立与分析

随着我国经济的快速发展,对能源需求日益增加,在未来一段时期内,如何科学地预测我国能源需求量,对于保证经济的可持续发展、小康社会目标的实现与和谐社会的构建具有重要的现实意义。向量自回归模型是基于数据的统计性质建立模型,把系统中每一个内生变量作为系统中所有内生变量的滞后值的函数来构造模型,是处理多个相关经济指标的分析和预测最容易操作的模型之一,常用于预测相互联系的时间序列系统。能源需求量是由煤炭、石油、天然气等一次能源的消费量组成,他们之间存在着密切的联系,基于此,应用VAR模型对我国中长期的能源需求总量、煤炭、石油、天然气的消费量进行预测,为科学地制定能源发展战略提供理论指导。     

扩大居民消费需求的财税政策取向

在国际金融危机引发中国经济波动、出口萎缩的情况下,促进消费、扩大内需,拉动经济增长,已经成为当前经济工作的首要任务。通过对我国居民消费需求现状、存在问题及现行财税体制中不利于消费需求增长的因素分析,提出了通过调整财税政策,扶持中小企业发展;增加居民可支配收入;增加财政支出中保障民生的支出;推进居民消费升级等政策建议。     

The dynamics of parallel economies. Measuring the informal sector in Mexico

The existence of parallel economies that operate in the shadows of informality within most Latin American countries is widely recognized by the economic literature. However, its composition, size and effects on economic growth are still open questions. In this paper, we estimate the size and the evolution of the Mexican informal economy in the last three decades using a vector error correction model. In addition to the standard explanatory variables traditionally used in the currency demand approach, we include remittances given their relevance in the Mexican economic system. The results indicate that informality prior to the late 1980s accounted for at least two thirds of GDP, while stabilizing around one third of GDP in the last decade. Furthermore, our estimates provide evidence of a positive long-run relationship between informality and economic growth.     

Modelling international tourism demand and volatility in small island tourism economies

Small island tourism economies (SITEs) vary in their size, land area, location, narrow resource bases, economic development, overwhelming reliance on tourism and consistent inflow of foreign direct investment for economic growth. Small island tourism economics differ in their ethnic diversity, political systems, economic and environmental vulnerability, ecological fragility and the risks facing investors. Owing to natural disasters, ethnic conflicts, crime and the threat of global terrorism, there have been dramatic changes in the arrivals of international tourists to SITEs. These variations in international tourism demand to SITEs, particularly the conditional variance (or volatility) in international tourist arrivals, have not previously been analysed in the tourism research literature. An examination of the conditional volatility of international tourist arrivals is essential for policy analysis and marketing purposes. This paper models the conditional mean and conditional variance of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and the growth rate (or log‐difference) in the monthly international tourist arrivals for six SITEs, namely Barbados, Cyprus, Dominica, Fiji, Maldives and Seychelles. Diagnostic checks of the regularity conditions of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and their growth rates suggest that the estimated univariate models of trends and volatility are statistically adequate. Therefore, the estimated models are appropriate for purposes of public and private sector management of tourism. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

消费政策与我国的经济增长

现阶段我国经济发展中的主要问题是消费需求不足．走出消费需求不足的关键是消费政策调整,通过鼓励消费、引导消费、不断扩大居民的消费支出来启动消费需求,推动经济增长．     

Addressing shortcomings in the Household Responsibility System: Empirical analysis of the Two-Farmland System in Shandong Province

Despite apparent overwhelming benefits, implementation of the Household Responsibility System (HRS) in China contained a number of flaws. The Two-Farmland System (TFS), which originated in Pingdu City in Shandong Province, sought to address the twin problems of land fragmentation and economies of size. A stochastic frontier production function analysis that isolates the impacts of land allocation reforms suggests that the TFS increased efficiency by around 7%. This article highlights the need for empirical analysis to assess objectively the merits or otherwise of particular reforms.     

我国证券市场长期规范发展的思考与建议

本文分析了我国证券市场发展中面临的问题主要有认识上存在偏差、计划行政驱动色彩浓重、供求关系严重失衡 ,指出我国证券市场长期规范发展的根本之路是纠正认识上的偏差 ,构造合理的供求关系 ,实行市场化改革。