Cross-ownership as a structural explanation for over- and underestimation of default probability

Based on the work of Suzuki, we consider a generalization of Merton’s asset valuation approach in which two firms are linked by cross-ownership of equity and liabilities. Suzuki’s results then provide no arbitrage prices of firm values, which are derivatives of exogenous asset values. In contrast to the Merton model, the assumption of lognormally distributed assets does not result in lognormally distributed firm values, which also affects the corresponding probabilities of default. In a simulation study we see that, depending on the type of cross-ownership, the lognormal model can lead to both over- and underestimation of the actual probability of default of a firm under cross-ownership. In the limit, i.e. if the levels of cross-ownership tend to their maximum possible value, these findings can be shown theoretically as well. Furthermore, we consider the default probability of a firm in general, i.e. without a distributional assumption, and show that the lognormal model is often able to yield only a limited range of probabilities of default, while the actual probabilities may take any value between 0 and 1.     

中哈原油管道两国计量输差数学模型分析

用流体的连续性方程并结合质量守恒定律对中哈管道阿塔苏站-阿拉山口站的参数进行分析后建立了计量输差的数学模型关系,通过数据验证了该模型。结果说明两国之间毛重计量输差的主要影响因子是输送过程中两站间管道中油品密度变化率,从而为解决两国间流量计计量数据争议提供了重要参考。     

Rural–urban migration,urban unemployment and the structural transformation of a dual economy

This paper restructures the Harris–Todaro model in such a way that rural–urban migration in the presence of urban unemployment brings in the structural transformation desired for a developing dual economy by expanding the industrial sector before any policy is introduced to cure the domestic factor market distortion. Furthermore, migration may also help to eliminate unemployment as well as the wage gap in the economy. When international trade is introduced in this restructured dual economy, trade policies would have new implications; for example, unlike in the original Harris– Todaro structure, the import tariff may bring full employment and eliminate wage gaps between the sectors.     

Testing purchasing power parity for Japan and the US: A structural-break approach

In this work we empirically assess the weak and strong forms of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for the economies of Japan and US. Monthly data for the, traded-goods price indices and the JPY/USD exchange rate are employed for the, period from January 2000 to October 2012. This period includes large shocks, such as, the US subprime crisis and the 2011 Tsunami in Japan. We take into account possible, structural shifts and breaks by employing the class of Lee and Strazicich, 2003, Lee and Strazicich, 2004 unit, root tests. Empirical analysis suggests that a break corresponding to the start of the US subprime crisis is not rejected. Furthermore, utilizing the Gregory and Hansen (1996) and, Hatemi (2008) cointegration methodologies, the weak form of PPP is not rejected. We, also test the strong PPP hypothesis by using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, (DOLS). The empirical evidence rejects the strong form of PPP for the period, preceding the US subprime crisis in contrast to the period after.     

Structural Change in Advanced Nations: A New Set of Stylised Facts*

We provide new evidence on patterns of structural change in advanced economies, reconsidering the stylised facts put forward by Kaldor (1963) , Kuznets (1971) , and Maddison (1980) . Since 1980, the services sector has overwhelmingly predominated in the economic activity of the European Union, Japan, and the US, but there is substantial heterogeneity among services. Personal, finance, and business services have low productivity growth and increasing shares in employment and GDP. By contrast, shares of distribution services are constant, and productivity growth is rapid. We find that the labour share in value‐added is declining, while the use of ICT capital and skilled labour is increasing in all sectors and regions.     

协整还是协变:来自中国进出口时间序列的经验证据(1950-2004)

结构突变是经典计量经济学所面临的难题之一,也是当前国际计量经济学界的一个前沿热点问题.本文采用带有内生结构突变的单位根检验,判定我国进出口时间序列服从具有两次结构变动的趋势平稳过程,而不是单位根过程.在此基础上进一步建立了同期协同结构突变向量自回归模型,即协变模型,得出了一些与常规的协整分析不同的结论,该模型具有更强的解释能力和更好的预测效果.     

Econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change

A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometricmodel in the presence of structural change of an evolutionarytype. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn fromthe self-organisation approach and operationalised in the contextof the logistic diffusion growth model. The latter is augmentedto allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusionrate and boundary limit. We show how the hypothesis of augmentedlogistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods.An illustrative case study is used, namely the growth and declineof Australian Building Society Deposits. With the aid of thisexample, it is shown how the approach could be of use to botheconomic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structuralchange where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate.     

Contagion effects of electronic commerce diffusion: Perspective from network analysis of industrial structure

This study presents a quantitative method for investigating the diffusion of e-commerce adoption using social network analysis methodologies. The contagion effects on innovation diffusion are examined by two different social network models: the cohesion model, which is based on diffusion by direct communication, and the structural equivalence model, which is based on diffusion by similarity of network position. This study then empirically examines a sample of e-commerce diffusion taken from the Taiwan's industrial structure in 2001. The analytical results show that e-commerce diffusion among firms in Taiwan exhibits both contagion effects, but that the mimetic behavior is predicted better by network position than by interactions with others.     

The European economy at the cross roads: Structural reforms, fiscal constraints, and the Lisbon Agenda

This paper studies the incentives to sustain and extend a monetary union under alternative assumptions about the extent of market reform within the union and accession countries. Lack of labour mobility, or wage/price flexibility, or fiscal reform, brings costs for both new entrants and in the existing union. Countries will therefore want a union where there has been sufficient reform, and also one where markets are more flexible than their own. But existing members will want the same properties of their partners. Fiscal restrictions may exaggerate this incentive mismatch and could therefore delay the necessary reforms. Similarly, too large costs up front may also delay those reforms.