中国碳金融发展:决定于经济还是环境?——基于结构方程模型

气候变化为全球带来严峻考验,碳金融是对气候变化的有效应对,碳金融的发展在我国究竟决定于经济还是环境?采用结构方程模型对碳金融发展的影响因素做出实证分析。结果表明:现阶段我国的经济因素和居民因素对碳金融发展有抑制作用;居民因素在经济因素对碳金融发展影响的路径中起到中介作用,对环境因素产生负效应;环境因素与碳金融发展存在互惠关系,在碳金融发展中起突出作用。最后从科学顶层设计、依法治理,推动低碳经济产业的优化,强化居民、企业环保意识,加强污染防治与生态建设等方面给出建议。     

关于综合国力评价克莱因理论模型的缺陷性分析

随着我国经济的迅速发展和国际地位的迅速提高,国际上出现了许多版本的"中国威胁论":中国经济威胁论、中国军事威胁论、中国人口威胁论、中国能源威胁论……等等.在众多版本的"中国威胁论"中,它们的依据之一就是综合国力评价克莱因理论模型.文章从分析克莱因模型的缺陷入手对"中国威胁论"进行反驳,并提出应对"中国威胁论"的几点建议.     

网上购物行为影响因素实证研究

本文在创新接受理论的基础上，从渠道特性和个体特性的角度建立我国网络购物行为影响因素假设模型，并通过网上调查，运用结构方程建模进行实证研究。研究表明，感知网络购物有用性、感知网络购物容易使用、消费者网络经验、收入和体验型购物导向是决定消费者网络购物的关键因素。     

Objective methods for graphical structural learning

Graphical models are used for expressing conditional independence relationships among variables by the means of graphs, whose structure is typically unknown and must be inferred by the data at hand. We propose a theoretically sound Objective Bayes procedure for graphical model selection. Our method is based on the Expected-Posterior Prior and on the Power-Expected-Posterior Prior. We use as input of the proposed methodology a default improper prior and suggest computationally efficient approximations of Bayes factors and posterior odds. In a variety of simulated scenarios with varying number of nodes and sample sizes, we show that our method is highly competitive with, or better than, current benchmarks. We also discuss an application to protein-signaling data, which wieldy confirms existing results in the scientific literature.     

Forecast on silver futures linked with structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect

Silver future is crucial to global financial markets. However, the existing literature rarely considers the impacts of structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect simultaneously on the volatility of silver future price. Based on heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) theory, we establish six new type heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models by incorporating structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect to forecast the volatility. The empirical results indicate that new models’ accuracy is better than the original HAR model. We find that structural breaks and the day-of-the-week effect contain much forecasting information on silver forecasting. In addition, structural breaks have a positive effect on the silver futures’ volatility. Day-of-the-week effect has a significantly negative influence on silver futures’ price volatility, especially in the mid-term and the long-term. Our works is the first to combine the structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect to identify more market information. This paper provides a better forecasting method to predict silver future volatility.     

复杂技术网络化布局三维风险及其规避策略研究

复杂技术如同一个多元技术网络系统,其网络化布局存在潜在的横向风险、纵向风险及结构风险。对应三维度风险分析,从网络合作规则设计、技术网络治理与技术网络资金支撑体系构建以及产权制度创新3个方面,提出了应对复杂技术网络化布局风险的规避策略与制度设计,对了解我国复杂技术创新网络以及加强网络风险治理具有一定的借鉴意义。     

层式创新团队结构效率评价内涵与方法研究

为有效刻画层式创新团队管理效率评价结构化投入产出参数,引入团队能力视角的能力本体与功能对应分析策略,形成了针对其角色倾向、技能匹配、任务协作的效率评价要素解析维度。在此基础上,通过挖掘效率形成、交互与转化过程中衍生的角色、技能与任务维度投入产出要素需求差异,提炼出3个结构效率评价概念,并融合DEMATEL方法和AR-DEA方法,构建了能够整合要素复杂作用关联、反映偏好约束的结构效率综合评价模型。案例应用结果表明,以上理论方法有效、可行,对于提升结构化归纳层式创新组织管理效率内涵、梳理投入产出要素关联、增强评价结论参考价值等具有一定的实践指导意义。     

Is green growth relevant for poor economies?

To be relevant to developing countries, green growth must be reconciled with the two key structural features of natural resource use and poverty in these countries. First, primary products account for the majority of their export earnings, and they are unable to diversify from primary production. Second, many economies have a substantial share of their rural population located on less favored agricultural land and in remote areas, thus encouraging “geographic” poverty traps. If green growth is to be a catalyst for economy-wide transformation and poverty alleviation in developing countries, then it must be accompanied by policies aimed directly at overcoming these two structural features. Policies and reforms should foster forward and backward linkages of primary production, enhance its integration with the rest of the economy, and improve opportunities for innovation and knowledge spillovers. Rural poverty, especially the persistent concentration of the rural poor on less favored agricultural lands and in remote areas, needs to be addressed by additional targeted policies and investments, and where necessary, policies to promote rural-urban migration.     

Entry costs and stock market participation over the life cycle

Several explanations for the observed limited stock market participation have been offered in the literature. One of the most promising is the presence of market frictions mostly in the form of fixed entry and/or transaction costs. Empirical studies point to a significant structural (state) dependence in the stock market entry decision, which is consistent with costs of this type. However, the magnitude of these costs is not yet known. This paper focuses on fixed stock market entry costs. I set up a structural estimation procedure which involves solving and simulating a life cycle intertemporal portfolio choice model augmented with a fixed stock market entry cost. Important features of household portfolio data (from the PSID) are matched to their simulated counterparts. Utilizing a Simulated Minimum Distance estimator, I estimate the coefficient of relative risk aversion, the discount factor and the stock market entry cost. Given the equity premium and the calibrated income process, I estimate a one-time entry cost of approximately two percent of the permanent component of the annual labor income. My estimated model matches the zero median holding as well as the hump-shaped age–participation profile observed in the data.