Risk,uncertainty, and leverage

Using mostly theoretical models and traditional risk/uncertainty measures (VIX index, panic, precaution, scary bad news, etc.), the current literature tries to clarify the risk/uncertainty-deleveraging pattern. The findings are not sufficient to explain the dynamic empirical relationship between modern risk/uncertainty indicators and leverage. We fill this gap in the literature by using US quarterly data, from 1985:1 to 2018:4, Granger causality tests, and a structural vector autoregression model. We find that commercial bank leverage rises when geopolitical risk and macroeconomic, policy, and equity uncertainty increase. Client-based business relationships of banks and high government borrowing from banks during crises periods are responsible for this relationship. We find that the leverage of broker-dealers and shadow banks declines when Chicago risk and macroeconomic, policy, financial, and equity uncertainty increase. We argue that the vulnerability of broker-dealers and shadow banks to the risk/uncertainty of the entire market system is responsible for this relationship.     

Employing structural topic modelling to explore perceived service quality attributes in Airbnb accommodation

This study employs the structural topic model to extract service quality attributes from 242,020 Airbnb reviews in Malaysia. 22 service related topics were extracted from the corpus and four topics have not appeared in previous Airbnb studies. A widely used modified SERVQUAL questionnaire (MSQ) is cross-validated in this study by comparing its service quality attributes with the results of the topic modelling, which indicates that this MSQ can cover general Airbnb service quality attributes. This study also examines the different preferences of Malaysian and international Airbnb users and the changing patterns of the top six service quality attributes during a five-year period. The findings reveal that Malaysian Airbnb users care more about the appearance and location of the property, and international Airbnb users pay more attention to whether the property can accommodate a group of people. In addition, communication with the host is found to play an increasingly important role in Airbnb users’ lodging experiences.     

Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation

This paper examines whether the explanatory power of exchange rate models can be improved by allowing for cross-country asymmetries and non-linear effects of fundamentals. Both appear to be crucial. The samples include the USD versus pound and yen from 1982:10 to 2013:10, and automated model selection is conducted with indicator saturation. Several non-linear effects are significant at 1%. Further, many of the indicators present in the linear models are eliminated once allowing for non-linearities; suggesting some of the structural breaks found in previous work were an artifact of the misspecified linear functional form. These conclusions are robust to estimation using principal components.     

审视新结构经济学:一个多维视角

要素禀赋论又被称为要素比例理论,被誉为国际贸易理论的一大柱石. 新结构经济学以要素禀赋理论为基础,将一国的产业结构变迁归因于要素禀赋结构的变化.本文的分析表明:新结构经济学忽视了某些重要的历史因素和现实因素;如果按照新结构经济学的建议来制定一国的发展战略,企业在要素使用结构上将会高度一致,从而可能导致一国经济在面临外部冲击时产生巨大波动.     

Global imbalances and dynamics of international financial markets

We provide an overview of the special issue “Global Imbalances and dynamics of international financial markets”. This special issue, which is associated with the 7th International Finance Conference, features research papers dealing with the impact of global imbalances, market complexity, and the impact of the recent global financial crisis on the conduct of monetary policies, financial market dynamics, financial stability, and risk management models.     

A theory of supplier network-based innovation value

To understand how a supplier helps a buying company create value through innovations, studies have focused on a supplier's internal resources or its relationship with a buying company. Building upon this body of literature, we develop a theory of supplier network-based innovation value in this conceptual paper. This theory explains how a supplier's upstream and downstream value network can be a source of competitive advantage for a buying company. Specifically, it proposes that the levels and types of supplier innovation value is contingent on the configuration of a dual-ego value network, characterized by the locus and degree of buyer-supplier structural equivalence. This theory also explains how a supplier's ties with a buying firm's competitors can pose both opportunity and risk to buying company innovation. This theory contributes to the literature by showing when “seemingly undesirable” suppliers, due to a lack of technical capability or strong relationship with a buying company, might still be valuable to a buying company's innovation.     

Cointegration in China's log import demand: Price endogeneity and structural change

The monthly data of China's log import from January 2000 to December 2013 are used to estimate the import demand elasticities, with the consideration of possible price endogeneity due to China's large share of the international log market, and structural break caused by global financial crisis in 2008. To address the possible structural break, cointegration tests allowing for a deterministic shift in the level of the variables are employed, and a two-stage estimation with top-down sequential elimination algorithm is performed on the restricted subset VECM. The results demonstrate that there exists a long-run cointegration relationship between China's log import and the explanatory variables. The import elasticities of macroeconomic development and import price are around 0.76 and −0.81, respectively. Other things being equal, the structural break would induce a 29.6% decline in China's log import. All the above parameters are significant at the 1% risk level. Furthermore, the contribution decomposition analysis suggests that China's macroeconomic development plays a dominant role in determining its log import, which implies that China's log import would not increase as quickly as before, given that its economy is shifting into the “New Normal State”. This conjecture is supported by our simulations, which indicate that, by 2020, the growth rate of China's log import will be lower than it has been in the past and the import volume would be approximately 1.1–1.6 times greater compared to imports in 2013.     

Integration of financial and management accounting systems: The mediating influence of a consistent financial language on controllership effectiveness

Two fundamental options exist for management accounting system (MAS) design: Either financial records can be used as a database for management accounting (integrated accounting system design), or the MAS can be based upon a separate system, i.e., a third set of books beside financial and tax accounting records. Since the 1990s, many German-speaking firms have changed from the second to the first option, which has instigated a highly controversial debate.Our paper contributes to this debate by empirically analyzing (1) whether the integration of financial and management accounting has a positive impact on controllership effectiveness, and (2) what causal inferences relate both variables. We use structural equation modelling for a sample of 149 dyads surveyed from German top 1500 firms. We identify no significant effect of the technical aspects of MAS integration, but a fully mediating influence of a consistent financial language on controllership effectiveness. Our results thus imply that consistency with financial reporting is an important property of MAS design from management's point of view.     

Renewable energy and low-carbon policy spillover effects on natural gas demand

Recent legislation intended to increase the use of renewable energy sources and lower the amount of carbon dioxide emissions from energy has changed the structure of energy markets. The effect of these policies on carbon-intensive fuel sources is rather obvious. For natural gas, though, the effect is not immediately clear. This letter uses a structural model of natural gas demand to uncover whether these policies have led to increased demand because natural gas is a relatively clean source of energy that couples well with renewables or if these policies have crowded out natural gas on net.     

e-banking culture: A comparison of EU 27 countries and Portuguese case in the EU 27 retail banking context

The aim of this research is two-fold. Firstly we conducted a wise comparative analysis of EU 27 countries and secondly we identified distinct e-banking user segments of Portuguese citizens. We used a questionnaire for data collection (n=2358) and Latent Class Models (LCM) for data analysis. LCM revealed three segments in EU 27 (Portugal is in the poorest cluster, concerning the indicators used, with Greece, Spain and Cyprus) and two e-banking user segments in Portuguese citizens: Those who do not risk (49%), and Those who risk (51%). Our findings enable e-banking managers for taking appropriate strategic decisions.