建立我国贸易调整援助制度的构想

随着我国加快融入全球贸易自由化的进程,日趋激烈的进口竞争致使国内相关产业的安全问题越来越突出,所以我国需要制定新的贸易制度以有效应对因进口贸易自由化而产生的产业损害和结构调整问题。作为制度选择之一,美国贸易调整援助制度给我国带来了重要的经验启示,某些具体规则对构建符合国情的TAA制度具有重要的借鉴价值。在当下加快产业结构调整的背景下,构建我国TAA制度不仅是必要的,而且是可行的。因此,必须对该制度的几个基础性、根本性的问题进行深入研究,从立法定位、立法目标、基本原则与立法模式的角度提出制度设计的基本设想。     

Modeling how institutional investors allocate business to brokers

A model of how institutional investors evaluate and allocate business to brokers shows a complex pattern of influences. The broker's ability to execute transactions at appropriate prices is basic, but this combines with research and sales force performance to build a relationship that affects over-time allocation of business. It is difficult to separate relationship and selling performance, and relationship is subject to considerable decay. Research ability has a weak effect on business allocated on the basis of trading, while trading ability does affect business allocated on the basis of research.     

结构变化下中国股市单位根现象研究

本文使用含结构变化的单位根检验理论来分析上证综指、上证A指、上证B指和深证成指日收盘价格对数过程的特征.本文的实证结果表明,上证综指、上证A指、上证B指和深证成指日收盘价格对数过程存在结构变化,结构中断点位置表明交易费用调整事件和利率调整事件对A股市场有较深刻影响,这和一些文献将"1995年01月01日实行T 1交易制度"或"1996年12月16日实行涨跌停板"作为分界点有所不同;在考虑结构变化因素后,深市的有效性不如沪市.     

Global Value Chains in the Era of 4IR: New Paradigm of Business Models for SMEs

This paper presents a brief literature review of previous studies methodologies,models,and contexts in studying firms’upgrading in Global Value Chains(GVCs).The...     

中国碳金融发展:决定于经济还是环境?——基于结构方程模型

气候变化为全球带来严峻考验,碳金融是对气候变化的有效应对,碳金融的发展在我国究竟决定于经济还是环境?采用结构方程模型对碳金融发展的影响因素做出实证分析。结果表明:现阶段我国的经济因素和居民因素对碳金融发展有抑制作用;居民因素在经济因素对碳金融发展影响的路径中起到中介作用,对环境因素产生负效应;环境因素与碳金融发展存在互惠关系,在碳金融发展中起突出作用。最后从科学顶层设计、依法治理,推动低碳经济产业的优化,强化居民、企业环保意识,加强污染防治与生态建设等方面给出建议。     

“互联网+创业”服务平台用户使用意愿影响机理研究——基于D & M模型和计划行为理论视角

针对互联网创业服务特点,基于计划行为理论信息系统成功模型构建新的理论模型,使用结构方程模型进行数据分析,以解释互联网创业服务平台用户持续使用意愿。通过模型分析发现,兼容性和线上线下互动通过知觉行为控制正向显著影响用户满意度和用户使用意愿,信息品质直接影响用户对互联网创业服务平台的使用意愿,而用户满意度在平台信息品质、系统品质、服务品质与使用意愿之间具有中介效应。基于此,提出完善互联网创业服务平台和提升用户使用意愿的对策建议。     

Complexity and the limits to learning

In this paper we look at the manner in which ideas coming from complexity science change our understanding of the cognitive powers of agents that is really necessary to explain the evolution of markets and of firms. The general ideas behind complex systems dynamics and evolution are presented and then two examples are treated in detail. The first in an evolutionary model of a market in which some new product is developed by competing firms and their “task” is to find a strategy in terms of quality and price that will be sustainable. This essentially requires agents/firms to discover mutually compatible strategies, and to create thereby sustainable market niches. The second example considers the internal structure of firms, in terms of their constituent working practices and skills. It demonstrates that it is precisely their ignorance of the consequences of adopting any particular practice that generates diversity in the emergent capabilities of firms, exploring the dimension of potential demand and therefore leading to a successful and sustainable business sector. The work supports the notion that the cognitive abilities that are involved are not about deduction and logic, as a traditional view of rationality might suggest, but are about the development and contraction of interpretive frameworks, which will be different for each player. The paper links these examples to a general recognition of the idea that complex, multi-agent systems evolve through successive “structural attractors”—multi-dimensional dynamical systems—with temporary structural stability. Because real systems contain both the structure and deviations from it, then there is a constant probing of structural stability and the possibility of qualitative change to a new structural attractor. This resembles the ideas in biological evolution related to “punctuated equilibria,” but it also links this to the idea of emergent and evolving networks of interaction, never of course near thermodynamic equilibrium.      

关于综合国力评价克莱因理论模型的缺陷性分析

随着我国经济的迅速发展和国际地位的迅速提高,国际上出现了许多版本的"中国威胁论":中国经济威胁论、中国军事威胁论、中国人口威胁论、中国能源威胁论……等等.在众多版本的"中国威胁论"中,它们的依据之一就是综合国力评价克莱因理论模型.文章从分析克莱因模型的缺陷入手对"中国威胁论"进行反驳,并提出应对"中国威胁论"的几点建议.     

基于MRCI的中国能源消费变动及驱动因素分析

如何减缓能源消费的过快增长是应对能源安全和气候变化的重要课题。通过对投入产出分析原理和无残差的完全结构分解法（MRCI）量化分析发现,产出规模效应和生产结构效应对中国能源消费增长起到主导作用,是主要驱动因素,而中国能源强度效应能有效抑制中国能源消费的增长;人口规模效应和人均生活能耗效应对中国能源消费增长的影响相对较小,但也有一定的促进作用。因此,依靠技术创新、提高能源使用效率,控制人口增长、引导居民向低能耗方向发展有利于减少中国能源消费水平。     

计量经济学应用研究的总体回归模型设定

本文从计量经济学应用研究中总体回归模型设定的任务和目标出发,通过对总体模型设定的研究目的导向、经济学理论导向、数据关系导向的分析与评价,提出总体模型设定的唯一性、一般性、现实性和统计检验必要性原则;最后,提出总体回归模型设定的"经济主体动力学关系导向"原则和框架。