On cross-country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates

Previous findings of long-run purchasing power parity come mainly from data for industrial countries, raising the issue of whether the results suffer sample-selection bias and exaggerate the general relevance of parity reversion. This study uncovers substantial cross-country heterogeneity in the persistence of deviations from parity. The results show that it is more likely, rather than less likely, to find parity reversion for developing countries than industrial countries. Although some persistence variations may partly reflect country differences in structural characteristics such as inflation experience and government spending, a considerable portion of those variations seems unaccounted for.     

Structural Change in Chile: 1960–90

This paper attempts to analyze compositional structural change in Chile, especially during the period around 1974–90, when the most overt ‘neo-liberal’ experiment was forced on the country's economy and society. The main conclusion is that, while the service sector has moved in the correct direction, setting up important industries for the dynamic development of the country, the manufacturing sector has not performed equally well. The manufacturing sector has significantly shrunk its most sophisticated base, and relies mostly on traditional manufacturing that grows sluggishly. Export expansion is in manufacturing still a small proportion of exports. The primary sector is still the main export earner, but has significantly diversified. It appears that the economy has not moved fast enough towards, and does not appear to be geared by, the type of exports that may sustain a dynamic industrial development, based on external markets.     

关系契约下的公私伙伴关系稳定性研究

公私伙伴关系泛指公共部门与私营部门间通过共享收益、共担风险、协同参与,发挥比较优势以提升公共物品与服务的供给水平.缔约的公私各方不仅受正式契约规制,而且受非正式契约调节,后者对公私合作尤其是持续合作有着重要影响.基于此,本文在关系契约框架下运用因子分析及结构方程模型对公私伙伴关系稳定性影响因素展开研究,显示风险是影响公私伙伴关系稳定性最为重要因素,而信息公开、相互信任、内部诱因与外部监管是影响合作稳定性的重要特征表现等结论.     

Links between economic liberalization and rural resource degradation in the developing regions

This paper examines evidence of the effects of economic liberalization and globalization on rural resource degradation in developing countries. The principal resource effects of concern are processes of land use change leading to forestland conversion, degradation and deforestation. The main trends in globalization of interest are trade liberalization and economy-wide reforms in developing countries that have 'opened up' the agroindustrial sectors, thus increasing their export-orientation. Such reforms have clearly spurred agroindustrialization, rural development and economic growth, but there is also concern that there may be direct and indirect impacts on rural resource degradation. The direct impacts may occur as increased agricultural activity leads to conversion of forests and increased land degradation from 'unsustainable' production methods. However, there may also be indirect effects if agroindustrial development displaces landless, near-landless and rural poor generally, who then migrate to marginal agricultural lands and forest frontier regions. This paper explores these direct and indirect effects of globalization and agroindustrialization on rural resource degradation both generally, plus through examining case study evidence. The paper focuses in particular on the examples of structural adjustment, trade liberalization and agricultural development in Ghana, and maize sector liberalization in Mexico under North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).     

The convergence of inflation rates in the EU-12 area: A distribution dynamics approach

This paper provides an assessment of Euro area inflation dynamics based on the distribution dynamics approach. It is found that raw series and trends have converged, although the convergence process has not been constant over time. Inflation cycles still lack of synchronization over short time horizons. In search for an economic explanation for cyclical inflation dynamics, the paper suggests that country-specific labor market institutions are likely to affect inflation outcomes above all in high inflation countries. Moreover, the cyclical inflation divergence arises from output fluctuations.     

日本"泡沫经济"破灭后的税收政策评析

“泡沫经济”破灭后,日本采取包括税收制度改革在内的多种调节政策,试图尽快走出经济泥潭。但是,受多种因素制约,税收制度对经济的调节作用十分有限,税收功能发挥“微效”。税收结构性调整缓慢是日本经济增长的制约因素之一。日本税收政策调整对我国当前税收制度改革具有一定的启示意义。     

粉煤灰碱熔融分解制备合成4型沸石的原料

研究了粉煤灰和碳酸钠助剂混合后在高温下焙烧,碱熔融分解制备合成沸石原料的新方法。通过正交试验选定了最佳分解条件,该条件下粉煤灰中的大部分硅、铝等有效成分能够溶出为合成4A沸石的原料。分解产物为霞石。     

Structural change and long-range dependence in volatility of exchange rates: either, neither or both?

In this paper, we test for the existence of long memory and structural breaks in the realized variance process for the DM/US$ and Yen/US$ exchange rates. While long memory is evident in the actual processes, a structural break analysis reveals that this feature is partially explained by unaccounted changes in regime. We then compare the forecasting performance of Markov switching models with that of an ARFIMA model. The results indicate that neglecting the break process is not important for very short term forecasting once it is allowed for a long memory component in the model, but that superior forecasts can be obtained at longer horizons by modelling both long memory and structural change.     

Occupational Segregation and its Effect on Estimates of the Gender Wage Differential: Evidence from Brunei

This paper investigates the impact of the different occupational distributions of the gender groups on the gender wage differential in Brunei. We disaggregate occupational differences into explained and unexplained portions as this can provide better estimates of across-occupation and within-occupation wage differentials. Using data from the Brunei 1995 Labor Force Survey report, results indicated that the gender wage difference is approximately 60%. Unlike other studies, it is found that in Brunei the unexplained portion of occupational segregation has had an impact on gender wage differentials and accounts for approximately one-third of the observed gap. Interestingly, the unexplained component of the within-occupation gap is relatively less than in some developed economies. This is attributed to the effects of the large public sector in Brunei and its regulated pay scales.