Knife-edge conditions in the modeling of long-run growth regularities

Balanced (exponential) growth cannot be generalized to a concept which would not require knife-edge conditions to be imposed on dynamic models. Already the assumption that a solution to a dynamical system (i.e. time path of an economy) satisfies a given functional regularity (e.g. quasi-arithmetic, logistic, etc.) imposes at least one knife-edge assumption on the considered model. Furthermore, it is always possible to find divergent and qualitative changes in dynamic behavior of the model – strong enough to invalidate its long-run predictions – if a certain parameter is infinitesimally manipulated.     

Why did US air pollution decline after 1970?

US economic growth and air pollution were decoupled after 1970. Possible explanations include regulation, oil price shocks, technology and income growth. This paper uses VAR analysis to show that the 1970 Clean Air Act (CAA) may have actually increased pollution in the short run but led to accelerated improvements in abatement technology. Gross domestic product and consumption growth had little direct effect while oil price increases caused small but significant emissions reductions. Recursive simulation shows that overall, the CAA, by accelerating improvements in abatement technology, reduced total emissions as of 1998 to 46% of what they would have been.      

论科学发展视角的市场经济行动规律与经济发展方式转变

科学发展观实质上揭示了中国模式市场经济的行动规律。转变经济发展方式必须符合以人为本、全面协调可持续的科学发展理念,尤其应关注资源有限和市场经济复杂性的双重约束,探索符合中国国情的可持续适度规模。从市场经济行动规律的视野把握科学发展理念,促进加快转变经济发展方式,有助于实现中国经济的平稳较快发展。     

论又好又快发展

又好又快发展是全面落实科学发展观的本质要求,是经济发展理念的重要变化。本文首先回顾了新中国成立初期在提出"多快好省"社会主义建设总路线过程中所进行的艰辛探索;回顾了改革开放以来在"又快又好"思想指导下所取得的举世瞩目成就;着重分析了现在为什么提出又好又快发展和怎样实现又好又快发展。     

Financial crisis and sustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry

Sub-prime lending crisis has become an international financial crisis, which is evolving into an economic recession sweeping across the West. Financial crisis leads to the demand reduction in western countries, and as the largest manufacturing country, China must face overproduction. The role of China as ＂world factory＂ determines that financial crisis will severely attack Chinese manufacturing industry. The unsustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry is mainly reflected in the following aspects： heavy dependence on export, low-level manufacturing link, lack of modern service industry and high-tech industry, weak independent innovative ability, unsustainable exploration of heavy-pollution resources, and lack of international famous brands. How to transform crisis to opportunities is an urgent research topic. Under the circumstance of financial crisis. Chinese manufacturing industry has more external drives to change the current situation. Therefore, financial crisis becomes not only an opportunity for Chinese manufacturing industry to improve itself based on the existing accumulation but also a chance for China to transform from ＂world factory＂ into a powerful nation of manufacturing industry in the world.     

论产品结构调整与企业核心竞争力

企业产品结构调整是企业保持创新特征并赢得竞争优势、获得持续发展的关键。本文通过对产品结构调整的基本理论和研究状况以及企业核心竞争力理论的研究,指出在我国社会主义市场经济的不断推进和工业化进程地不断加速的环境中实施基于企业核心竞争力的产品结构调整必要性。     

From the Ground Up: Quality of Life Indicators and Sustainable Community Development

In the search for accessible, understandable, and useful criteria for the evaluation of community sustainability initiatives, quality of life indicators have proven to be appealing. Currently, in Ontario, there are several ongoing efforts to develop quality of life indicators for use at the municipal level. Methodologies useful in rural communities must meet some important challenges, including a lack of small area statistics and an absence of paid staff assistance. This article discusses volunteer-driven efforts by rural Woolwich Township's Healthy Communities Project to develop quality of life indicators for use in developing a local State of the Community Report.     

Computers And Growth

The purpose of this paper is to describe the impact of investment in computers on the growth of the U.S. economy. The economic literature on computers is relatively rich in information on the decline in computer prices and the growth of computer investment. Constant quality price indices for computers have been included in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) since 1986. These indices employ state of the art methodology to capture the rapid evolution of computer technology.

While the annual inflation rate for overall investment has been 3.66 percent for the period 1958 to 1992, computer prices have declined by 19.13 percent per year! Similarly, overall investment grew at 3.82 percent, while investment in computers increased at an astounding 44.34 percent! These familiar facts describe growth in the output of computers. The objective of this paper is to complete the picture by analyzing the growth of computer services as inputs.

In a pioneering paper Bresnahan (1986) has focused on pecuniary externalities arising from the rapid decline in computer prices. Griliches (1992, 1994) has emphasized the distinction between pecuniary and nonpecuniary externalities in the impact of computer investment on growth. This paper is limited to pecuniary externalities or the impact of reductions in computer prices on the substitution of computer services for other inputs. As Griliches (1992) points out, this is an essential first step in identifying nonpecuniary externalities or ‘spill-overs’ through the impact of a decline in computer prices on productivity growth. ^{* *}Brynjolfsson (1993) has proveded a detailed survey of studies of nonpecuniary externalities or ‘spill overs’. Recent studies include those of Brynjolfsson and Hitt (1994a, 1994b) and Lichtenberg (1993).

In two important papers Stephen D. Oliner (1993, 1994) has introduced a model of computer technology that greatly facilitates the measurement of computer services as inputs. In this paper we estimate computer stocks and flows of computer services for all forms of computer investment included in NIPA. We construct estimates of computer services parallel to NIPA data on computer investment by combining these data with information on computer inventories. For example, the International Data Corporation (IDC) Census of Computer Processors includes an annual inventory of processors in the U.S.

In Section 1 we present data on investment in computers and constant quality price indices from NIPA. These data incorporate important innovations in modeling computer technology stemming from a joint study by IBM and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) completed in 1985. This study utilized a ‘hedonic’ methodology for constructing an econometric model of computer prices that accurately reflects rapid changes in computer technology. This methodology generates an index of computer prices that holds the quality of computers constant.

In Section 2 we present the model of computer services originated by Oliner (1993,1994). This differs in important respects from the model of capital services used in the previous studies of U.S. economic growth surveyed by Jorgenson (1989,1990). The model employed in previous studies is based on the decline in productive capacity with the chronological age of a capital good. Oliner assumes that computers maintain their productive capacity until they are retired. Decline in productive capacity occurs only through removal of used computers from the inventory through retirement.

In Section 3 we construct estimates of stocks of computers that incorporate IDC data on computer inventories and derive the implied flow of computer services. While output of computer investments has grown very rapidly, the input of computer services has grown even faster. The price of these services has declined at 23.22 percent per year over the period 1958 to 1992, while the input of these services has grown at 52.82 percent! This is prima facie evidence of an important role for computer price declines as a source of pecuniary externalities.

In Section 4 we combine computer services with the services of other types of capital to produce a measure of capital input into the U.S. economy. We link this with labor input to obtain the contributions of both inputs to U.S. economic growth, arriving at the growth of productivity as a residual. We find that the contribution of computer services to input into the U.S. economy is far more important than the contribution of computer investments to output. This is a significant step toward resolution of the Solow paradox: ‘We see computers everywhere except in the productivity statistics. ^{* *}Robert M. Solow, quoted by Brynjolfsson (1993). Declines in computer prices generate very sizable pecuniary externalities through the substitution of computer services for other inputs. By contrast Solow focuses on nonpecuniary externalities that would appear as productivity growth.

In Section 5 we conclude that information on inventories of computers is critical in quantifying the role of computer services as inputs. The constant quality price indices for computers incorporated into NIPA are also essential. A price index for computers that reflects only general trends in inflation would result in a highly distorted perspective on the growth of GDP and capital services, especially during the past decade. To capture the contribution of all forms of investment to U.S. economic growth, similar price indices should be included in NIPA for capital goods with rapidly evolving technologies, as proposed by Gordon (1990).

The long term goal should be a unified system of income. product, and wealth accounts, like that proposed by Laurits Christensen and Jorgenson (1973) and Jorgenson (1980). This incorporates capital stocks, capital services, and their prices. Achieving this goal will necessitate much greater elaboration of the accounting system described in Section 3. These accounts would incorporate data on prices and quantities of investment, stocks of assets, and capital services for all forms of capital employed in the U.S. economy.     

企业成长性与创新能力研究

对32家创业板上市公司的研究表明,管理创新、技术创新和制度创新是构成上市公司整体创新能力三大主要因素,并且技术、管理、制度创新越强的企业,整体创新能力越强;创业板上市公司的成长性水平与创新能力呈显著的正相关关系,并且在管理创新、技术创新、制度创新协同发挥作用时,上市公司的成长性更为显著。     

论人地关系危机与地球科学

人类一经出现，就与地球环境发生了关系，即＂人地关系＂。随着生产和科学技术的发展，人类越来越多地对自然环境产生影响，人地关系呈现出全球性的危机，出现了环境污染，生态破坏和承载力不足等一系列环境问题。人地关系危机的实质就在于人类与地球环境的矛盾对立，其表现形式是多方面的。解决人地关系危机的根本途径是走可持续发展之路。为了创造物质资源丰富的社会和美好安全的生存环境，协调人与自然的关系，地球科学面临着艰巨而紧迫的任务。２１世纪将是地球科学的世纪。