CURRENCY BOARD ARRANGEMENTS AS A SUPER‐FIXED ALTERNATIVE IN THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME1

Currency board arrangements (CBAs) are currently widely proposed as a super‐fixed exchange rate solution to exchange rate volatility. This paper researches the nature, operation, benefits and disadvantages of CBAs. Benefits comprise improved policy credibility, lower inflation and interest rate levels, increased economic growth, increased foreign capital flows, and sharply reduced currency speculation. These are compared with the shortcomings of CBAs, such as the absence of a lender of last resort, real exchange rate misalignments and their consequences for the economy. The paper identifies the type of country that would be the most likely candidate to benefit from a CBA.     

An Error Component Logit Analysis of Corporate Bankruptcy and Insolvency Risk in Australia

This paper introduces a four-state failure model to depict a wider range of distress scenarios that public companies typically face in the real world. We use a multinomial error component logit model to analyse firm failure, a major advance on the modelling techniques used in previous research. The error component logit model, being an extension of the more familiar mixed logit model, relaxes several questionable statistical assumptions associated with standard models. Using a sample of Australian firms we provide an interpretative illustration of the error component logit model and contrast its behavioural performance with the standard logit model widely used in previous research.     

The Inflationary Consequences of a Currency Changeover on the Catering Sector: Evidence from the Michelin Red Guide*

This paper examines the inflationary consequences of a currency changeover in the catering market. Empirical evidence from the Michelin Red Guide shows that: (i) differently from restaurants in non‐euro countries, restaurants in the euro area experienced abnormal price increases just after the changeover; and (ii) among restaurants in the euro area, tourist restaurants are responsible for most of the abnormal price increases. These results suggest that proposed explanations for the changeover effect, such as menu adjustment and rounding up, are only part of the story. We present a simple model of the catering market that is consistent with the evidence.     

Luther and the Girls: Religious Denomination and the Female Education Gap in Nineteenth‐century Prussia*

Martin Luther urged each town to have a girls' school so that girls would learn to read the Gospel, thereby evoking a surge of building girls' schools in Protestant areas. Using county‐ and town‐level data from the first Prussian census of 1816, we show that a larger share of Protestants decreased the gender gap in basic education. This result holds when using only the exogenous variation in Protestantism due to a county's or town's distance to Wittenberg, the birthplace of the Reformation. Similar results are found for the gender gap in literacy among the adult population in 1871.     

Basel II and bank lending to emerging markets: Evidence from the German banking sector

This paper investigates whether the new Basel Accord will induce a change in bank lending to emerging markets using a comprehensive new data set on German banks’ foreign exposure. We test two interlinked hypotheses on the conditions under which the change in the regulatory capital would leave lending flows unaffected. This would be the case if (i) the new regulatory capital requirement remains below the economic capital and (ii) banks’ economic capital to emerging markets already adequately reflects risk. On both accounts the evidence indicates that the new Basel Accord should have a limited effect on lending to emerging markets.     

Privatization when the public firm is as efficient as private firms

The literature on mixed oligopoly shows that when production costs are quadratic the public firm is privatized if the competition in the product market is high enough. Similarly, when the public firm is less efficient than private firms and the marginal costs of production are constant, the government privatizes the public firm if its efficiency is low enough. In this paper we analyze this issue assuming that the public firm maximizes the weighted sum of consumer surplus, private profit and the profit of the public firm. If all firms have the same marginal cost of production we obtain that for some value of parameters the government does not privatize the public firm regardless of how many private firms are competing in the product market. We also obtain that the consumer surplus can be lower in the mixed oligopoly than in the private oligopoly.     

Some Ethnic Dimensions of Income Distribution from Pre- to Post-reform New Zealand, 1984–1998*

Based on unit record data from four household surveys conducted by Statistics New Zealand for the years 1983/1984, 1991/1992, 1995/1996 and 1997/1998, this paper addresses some ethnic dimensions of income inequality among New Zealanders over the period of the surveys. It applies alternative techniques of decomposition of the Gini coefficient of inequality by subgroups of population. It then analyses how changes in the incomes of specific population subgroups affect the overall inequality. The results help quantify the economic distances among the different ethnic populations of New Zealand, and indicate how and why these distances have been changing over time.     

THE SOURCES OF AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: US MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, 1958–1996

The sources of aggregate productivity growth are explored using detailed data for four‐digit US manufacturing industries during 1958–96 and a decomposition formula that allows us to quantify the contribution of structural change. Labour productivity as well as total factor productivity are considered with either value‐added or employment shares serving as aggregation weights. It is shown that structural change generally works in favour of industries with increasing productivity. This effect is particularly strong in the years since 1990, in high‐tech industries and in durable goods producing industries. The impact of the computer revolution can be clearly identified.     

The role of boundary solutions in principal-agent problems of the Holmström-Milgrom type

The paper extends the Holmström-Milgrom [B. Holmström, P. Milgrom, Aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives, Econometrica 55 (1987) 303-328] analysis of intertemporal incentive provision to allow for the implementation of actions on the boundary of the feasible set. Boundary actions provide the principal with some freedom in choosing incentive schemes. This can be used to reduce premia. The paper characterizes optimal incentive schemes for the continuous-time Brownian-motion model and its discrete-time approximations. Linearity of incentive schemes in “accounts” is confirmed. However, for models with effort costs depending only on mean returns, the availability of boundary actions destroys the linearity of optimal incentive schemes in profits.     

Measuring Value‐at‐Risk in Project Finance Transactions

Despite the remarkable importance of project finance in international financial markets, no quantitative models to measure and quantify the risk associated with a deal for the project's lenders have been developed yet. The topic has recently become crucial, since the New Basle Capital Accord gives banks a choice of whether to adopt simpler (but possibly higher) standard capital requirements or to develop internal rating models for project finance transactions. The paper proposes how Monte Carlo simulations may be used to derive a Value‐at‐Risk estimate for project finance deals and discusses the critical issues that must be considered when developing such a model.