日本物流园区规划建设及对我国的启示

日本是物流园区发展较快的国家,同时也是世界上物流发达国家,本文以日本物流园区作为研究对象,通过分析其物流园区实践,从而为探讨我国物流园区发展模式提供思路。     

中国金融部门间系统性风险溢出的监测预警研究——基于下行和上行ΔCoES指标的实现与优化

为了对我国金融部门间的系统性风险溢出进行实时监测和有效预警,本文基于Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) 的CoES指标构想,在左尾视角的基础上进一步引入右尾视角,构建下行和上行ΔCoES分别作为系统性风险的同期度量指标和前瞻预警指标,并提出了更为有效合理且同时适用于下行和上行ΔCoES的计算方法。本文一方面采用下行和上行ΔCoES对我国银行、证券、保险三个金融部门间的系统性风险溢出进行监测预警研究,另一方面还基于我国的经验数据检验上行和下行ΔCoES的性质。研究结果显示,我国金融部门间具有显著的系统性风险溢出效应,且三个部门间的风险溢出存在非对称性,银行部门是系统性风险的主要发送者,证券部门是系统性风险的主要接收者;三个部门两两间的风险溢出水平表现出明显的协同性和周期性,且上行的风险溢出水平高于下行。同时,基于我国的经验数据发现,上行ΔCoES对下行ΔCoES具有显著的先导性、前瞻性,上行ΔCoES可以作为系统性风险的前瞻预警指标。此外,下行ΔCoES能够引领ΔCoVaR和基于MES估计方法计算的短期ΔCoES指标,表明本文构建的下行ΔCoES实时性更强,更适合作为系统性风险的实时监测指标。     

“以医促养”还是“以养促养 ”:医疗保险与养老金的健康绩效比较

CLHLS2014年数据的结构方程模型估计结果显示,养老金收入能显著提高老年人的主观健康,并且主观健康还能显著增进生理健康。路径模型进一步检验发现养老金能通过显著改善受访者的居住条件、水果摄入量、及时就医、经济状况等途径来提高老年人的生理健康。而医疗保险支出与老年人主观健康、生理健康之间都呈显著负相关关系。相比医疗保险支出,养老金能带来更正面更积极的健康绩效,且促进老年人健康的途径更为丰富。实证结果说明,相比“以医促养”,“以养促养”的老年人健康绩效更优。本文建议我国从以疾病治疗为中心转为依托养老金购买养老服务,提高老年人生活质量的健康保障体系。     

Dory & Nemo Early Learning Center

The case requires students to evaluate the current situation and growth options of a small business, Dory & Nemo Early Learning Center (D&N), which provides intergenerational programming to preschool children at a retirement home. The learning center was opened in September 2014, and it was able to make a small profit each year. However, it is projected that there would be a 75 percent decrease in net income from $8,072 in Fiscal 2016 to $1,819 in Fiscal 2017. Davis and Nathans, business partners of D&N, met to discuss the following growth options: (i) Mosaic Retirement Residences' proposal to set up two learning centers at their retirement homes each year for a total of six in three years and (ii) Harmony Retirement Residences' proposal for leasing space to set up learning centers at their retirement homes, one new learning center a year for a total of three in three years. Furthermore, Davis and Nathans had decided to increase the program fee from $320 to $350 per week for the 2017–18 academic session in September. They would also like to reduce their workload from 50 to 40 hours per week, increase their vacation time from two to three weeks, and increase their salaries and bonuses. Students must consider personal objectives of business partners and mission of D&N in the analysis. They learn to identify relevant information for decision making, apply appropriate analytical tools for quantitative analysis, integrate qualitative and quantitative factors in decision making, and make recommendations consistent with analysis.     

老年协会参与对老年虐待的影响

本文基于第三期全国妇女社会地位调查老年专项调查数据, 使用倾向值分析和工具变量方法,研究老年协会参与对老年虐待的影响及其作用机制。研究发现老年协会参与能有效抑制老年虐待。从作用机制来看,老年人在家庭私人生活领域之外的社会参与程度越高,参加文娱活动、志愿服务、互帮互惠等社会交往活动越频繁,法律意识越强,遭受家庭成员虐待的风险越小。但是目前广大老年人群特别是非精英的普通弱势老年人参加各类社会组织的积极性和广泛性还不够。对此,政府有关部门应强化城乡基层老年社会组织建设,为广大老年群体尤其是普通老人积极参与创造条件。针对家庭赡养中的虐老问题,老年社会组织应从法律、社会治理等方面开展鉴别、预防和干预工作,提升老年人法律素养,实施家庭支持策略强化延续家庭养老功能,维护弱势老年人合法权益。     

西藏国内贸易与本地经济增长关系的计量分析

基于2006～2015年时间序列数据,利用计量经济统计方法,考察了西藏国内贸易与本地经济增长之间的关系。经研究发现,西藏国内贸易与本地经济增长的关系是长期均衡的发展关系,且西藏国内贸易是本地经济增长的原因;同时,在影响西藏经济增长的三大需求中,国内贸易的占比最大,由此说明,在促进西藏经济增长的"三驾马车"中,消费比投资、净出口更为显著。     

GPT3模型计算中国大陆对流层天顶延迟精度分析

为了评估GPT3模型计算中国大陆对流层延迟改正的精度和可靠性,利用2017-2018年欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA-Interim大气廓线资料和中国地震局提供的陆态网对对流层延迟产品进行了对比验证分析。结果表明,在中国大陆,GPT3-ZTD模型值的年均偏差(Bias)小于0.6 cm,均方根误差(RMSE)优于3.53 cm。ZTD模型值的精度总体呈现出从中国西北(RMSE3 cm)到东南地区(RMSE5 cm)逐渐降低的趋势;在中国东南地区,GPT3模型低估了对流层天顶延迟,其量级处于-2.0～0.5 cm。ZTD模型值的精度与测站高程呈非线性相关,随着高程增加而精度不断提升。此外,GPT3-ZTD的精度具有明显季节性变化,RMSE基本维持在1～6 cm,ZTD模型值精度的季节性变化与大气中水气含量和变化剧烈程度相关。GPT3模型对中国大陆的对流层天顶延迟计算有较好的精度和可靠性,可为中国大陆对流层延迟改正建模提供一定参考。     

$$\mathcal{D}$$-optimal Minimum Support Mixture Designs in Blocks

An easy method to construct efficient blocked mixture experiments in the presence of fixed and/or random blocks is presented. The method can be used when qualitative variables are involved in a mixture experiment as well. The resulting designs are -optimal in the class of minimum support designs. It is illustrated that the minimum support designs are more efficient than orthogonally blocked mixture experiments presented in the literature and only slightly less efficient than -optimal designs.     

The tactical and strategic value of hedge fund strategies: a cointegration approach

This paper analyzes long-term comovements between hedge fund strategies and traditional asset classes using multivariate cointegration methodology. Since cointegrated assets are tied together over the long run, a portfolio consisting of these assets will have lower long-term volatility. Thus, if the presence of cointegration lowers uncertainty, risk-averse investors should prefer assets that are cointegrated. Long-term (passive) investors can benefit from the knowledge of cointegrating relationships, while the built-in error correction mechanism allows active asset managers to anticipate short-run price movements. The empirical results indicate there is a long-run relationship between specific hedge fund strategies and traditional financial assets. Thus, the benefits of different hedge fund strategies are much less than suggested by correlation analysis and portfolio optimization. However, certain strategies combined with specific stock market segments offer portfolio managers adequate diversification potential, especially in the framework of tactical asset allocation.

纽约与上海市知识服务业比较研究

本文通过对知识服务业含义的界定及纽约与上海市可比性的论述,应用大量详实的数据,采用实证方法对纽约、上海市知识服务业发展情况进行比较分析,得出上海市知识服务业中咨询业和广告业有很好的发展势头,而法律产业、健康服务产业等潜力巨大并有很强的发展空间等结论,并提出对策建议。