Testing for convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient in Europe

Without convergence of macroeconomic parameters representative of the nature of adjustment mechanisms, even a common shock to members of a monetary union can lead to different macroeconomic consequences across the union and, eventually, to the need for more or less co-ordinated specific policies. In this paper, we test for the presence of convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient (OLC) among several alternative groupings of European economies. The empirical strategy adopted is based on the evaluation of the time path of rolling regression estimates of the OLC for European countries. We then use a testing procedure suggested by Evans [Evans P (1996) J Econ Dynam Control 20:1027–1049] to investigate the convergence, or non-convergence, of the OLC in several groups of European countries by examining how the cross-country variance of the OLC evolves over time in these groups. A hypothesis of medium-term convergence of the OLC is rejected for most of the European country groups examined.      

地区经济收敛实证研究方法评述

收敛假说和世界范围内地区经济增长差距持续存在的反差,使得国内外许多学者采用各种分析方法研究国家或地区经济增长的收敛性,相关文献非常丰富。本文试图通过对纷繁文献的总结和梳理,对研究地区经济收敛的四种实证研究方法(横截面回归分析法、时间序列分析法、分布动态法及统计指标法)进行比较分析,介绍相关实证研究方法的最新进展,为我国地区经济增长收敛性的进一步深入研究提供借鉴和参考。     

Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence

We offer a theory of economic fluctuations based on intertemporal increasing returns: agents who have been active in the past face lower costs of action today. This specification explains the observed persistence in individual and aggregate output fluctuations even in the presence of i.i.d shocks because individuals respond to the same shock differently depending on their recent past experience. The exact process for output, the sharpness of turning points and the degree of asymmetry are determined by the form of heterogeneity. Our general formulation, under certain assumptions, reduces to a number of popular state space (unobserved components) models. We find that on US data our general formulation performs better than many of the existing econometric models, largely because it allows sharper downturns and more pronounced asymmetries than linear models, and is smoother than discrete regime shift models. Our estimates imply that only modest intertemporal returns are needed for our model to explain US GNP, and that heterogeneity across agents plays an important role in the propagation of business cycle shocks.     

Conditional convergence and the dynamics of the capital-output ratio

Output per worker can be expressed as a function of technological efficiency and of the capital-output ratio. Because technology is exogenous in the Solow model, all of the endogenous convergence dynamics take place through the adjustment of the capital-output ratio. This paper uses the empirical behavior of the capital-output ratio to estimate the speed of conditional convergence of economies towards their steady-state paths. We find that the conditional convergence speed is about seven percent per year. This is somewhat faster than predicted by the Solow model and is significantly higher than reported in most previous studies based on output per worker regressions. We show that, once there are stochastic shocks to technology, standard panel econometric techniques produce downward-biased estimates of convergence speeds, while our approach does not. The views expressed in this paper are our own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland or the ESCB.     

中国农村居民收入增长及空间差异演变

考虑到惯用的可分解组合的锡尔系数的缺点，故用独立锡尔系数对中国改革开放以来不同地理空间单元的农民收入差异情况进行测度。研究认为：农民收入差异在拉大，大部分省域农民收入水平都低于全国平均值，农民收入水平从东向西呈阶梯状分布；1995年以来．不同地理空间范围内的农民收入差异具有分层现象，差异程度由高到低依次是东西部、南部、全国、北部、东中部、东部、中西部、西部、中部；中部、西部、中西部的省际差异不大，其余层次的省际差异突出。全国、南部、北部、东部、东中部、东西部省际差异的演变轨迹高度相关，它们与中部、西部、中西部省际差异的演化轨迹负相关。     

一种新的移动卫星综合信息网构架

移动卫星综合信息网与现有的移动卫星通信网有着很大的区别。本文提出一种可反映移动卫星综合信息网特点的天基信息综合系统（SI^3），给出SI^3的网络模型，分析了这种分层网络模型的优缺点，并给出一个具体的参考星座组网例子，最后分析了SI^3建设中面临的技术问题。     

长江流域板块结构分异的制度成因与区域空间结构的重组

本文认为长江流域区域板块结构的形成与分异是各地区不同程度的市场化进程对区域空间结构产生非对称影响的结果。并论证了制度的创新与协调将有助于区域板块常规动力的耦合与外生动力的内在化。为促使长江流域区域的板块融合，应结合不同层次城市区域的空间结构特征和重组驱动力．制定与技术变革和全球化现实背景相适应的、以产业空间与城市空间相协同为目标、以区域治理体制为保障的空间结构政策。     

Merger,Partial Collusion and Relocation

We set up a three-firm model of spatial competition to analyse how a merger affects the incentives for relocation, and conversely, how the possibility of relocation affects the profitability of the merger, particularly for the non-participating firm. We also consider the cases of partial collusion in either prices or locations. Under the assumption of mill pricing, we find that a merger will generally induce the merger participants to relocate, but the direction of relocation is ambiguous, and dependent on the degree of convexity in the consumers transportation cost function. Furthermore, we identify a set of parameter values for which the free-rider effect of a merger vanishes, implying that the possibility of relocation could solve the merger paradox.Acknowledgement We thank Jonathan Cave, Frode Meland, participants at the Royal Economic Society Conference 2003 and an anonymous referee for valuable comments.     

我国宏观经济运行的分级分区调控研究述评

本文着重对我国宏观经济运行分级调控和分级分区调控的空间间组织类型与区域单元的研究进行了全面的评述,指明了这一研究的实际进展,阐释了有关宏观经济运行分级调控问题争论的原因以及因操作性强和体制的束而采用的现行分级分区调控模式－“中央一省区”调控模式所造成的弊端。作者指出,该模式实施具有物壹的历史规定性,按照我国经济体制改革的目标,宏观经济运行分级分区调控逐步过渡到符合市场是规律和区域经济发展规律的、按     

What drives long-term capital flows? A theoretical and empirical investigation

What drives capital inflows in the long run? This paper illustrates how capital movements conform surprisingly well to the predictions of a neoclassical model with credit constraints. The most intriguing prediction of this class of models is that, contrary to a pure neoclassical model, domestic saving should act as a complement rather than a substitute to capital inflows. Nevertheless, this class of models keeps the neoclassical prediction that capital should flow to countries where it is most scarce. Using foreign debt data from 1970 to 1998, I find qualitative and quantitative evidence that supports these predictions.