二阶自回归效应有限时间最优相对保费稳健性

在汽车保险奖惩系统相对保费研究中,需要考虑随机效应的动态异质性。在假设随机效应是一个二阶自回归随机序列的条件下,李俊海、赵振英、常沙沙(2011)给出了有限时间下最优相对保费计算公式,但是没有研究该公式的稳健性。在相同条件下,可以证明该文保费公式的稳健性。     

Term structure and the estimated monetary policy rule in the Eurozone

In this paper we estimate a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure in order to analyze two issues. First, we analyze the effect of introducing an explicit term structure channel in the NKM model on the estimated parameter values of the model, with special emphasis on the interest rate smoothing parameter using data for the Eurozone. Second, we study the ability of the model to reproduce some stylized facts such as highly persistent dynamics, the weak comovement between economic activity and inflation, and the positive, strong comovement between interest rates observed in actual Eurozone data. The Sect. 3 implemented is a classical structural method based on the indirect inference principle. We are grateful to Eduardo Ley, two anonymous referees and seminar participants at the XXXI Simposio de Análisis Económico (Oviedo, Spain) and Bank of Spain for their useful comments. Financial support from Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología and Universidad del País Vasco (Spain) and Fundación Séneca through projects SEJ2004-04811/ECON, 9/UPV00035.321-13511/2001 and I02937/PHCS/05, respectively, is gratefully acknowledged. The first author also thanks Fundación Ramón Areces for financial support.     

基于CAPM的黄金风险溢价研究

运用CAPM理论中的边际风险价格的概念,通过分析一个包含了黄金市场和股票市场在内的市场资产组合,定量给出了黄金的风险溢价。同时检验了黄金收益是否在CAPM框架内有效。在与我国股市进行比较之后,得出投资者可将黄金包括到投资组合中去,以取得更好的风险收益比。     

The risk–return relation in the corporate loan market

This paper analyzes the hypothesis that returns play a risk-compensating role in the market for corporate revolving lines of credit. Specifically, we test whether borrower risk and the expected return on these debt instruments are positively related. Our main findings support this prediction, in contrast to the only previous work that examined this problem two decades ago. Nevertheless, we find evidence of mispricing regarding the risk of deteriorating firms using their facilities more intensively and during the subprime crisis.     

The Fama-French model for estimating the cost of equity capital: The impact of real options of investment projects

We use the classic and modified Fama-French models to estimate the cost of capital of stock portfolios listed on selected markets. We compare four highly developed markets (US, EU, Japanese and global) and the Polish market as an alternative investment opportunity and a CEE emerging market. The performance of the applied procedures for estimating the cost of capital for company projects is examined and cost of capital is assessed with and without real option adjustment. We adjust the portfolios’ returns using the firms’ book-to-market ratios and idiosyncratic volatility as option proxies. The variability of cost of capital is evaluated using bootstrap methods. Our study shows a clear difference between bootstrapped distributions of cost of capital for the tested developed market and the Polish market portfolios. Wider confidence intervals of the estimated cost of capital of the studied Polish portfolios may result from political motivations in managing state-controlled companies. Our findings also indicate a clear difference between the cost of capital for tested portfolios with and without option adjustment. The widths of the estimated confidence intervals increase after option adjustment. The highest/lowest values of the cost of capital both with and without option adjustment are found for the US/Japanese market portfolios.     

New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation

This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements from twenty-two monthly and quarterly indicators to identify these three components. The results indicate that the sharp declines in the 10-year and 5-year break-even inflation rates in 2009 reflect a substantial increase in liquidity risk rather than a decrease in inflation expectations. Break-even inflation rates underestimate inflation expectations over nearly the entire sample due to the liquidity risk premia carried by the inflation indexed bond yields. Also, the model-implied inflation expectations show better forecast performance for the average annual inflation rates than raw break-even inflation rates, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Surveys of Consumers inflation forecasts.     

Long-term interest rates,risk premia and unconventional monetary policy

We study two kinds of unconventional monetary policies: announcements about the future path of the short-term rate and long-term nominal interest rates as operating instruments of monetary policy. We do so in a model where the risk premium on long-term debt is, in part, endogenously determined. We find that both policies are consistent with unique equilibria, that, at the zero lower bound, announcements about the future path of the short-term rate can lower long-term interest rates through their impact both on expectations and on the risk premium and that long-term interest rate rules perform as well as, and at times better than, conventional Taylor rules. With simulations, we show that long-term interest rate rules generate sensible dynamics both when in operation and when expected to be applied.     

Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market

This paper studies the predictive ability of a variety of models in forecasting the yield curve for the Brazilian fixed income market. We compare affine term structure models with a variation of the Nelson–Siegel exponential framework developed by Diebold and Li [Diebold, F., & Li, C. (2006). Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Yields. Journal of Econometrics, 130, 337–364]. Empirical results suggest that forecasts made with the latter methodology are superior, and appear to be more accurate at long horizons than other different benchmark forecasts. These results are important for policy-makers, as well as for portfolio and risk managers. Further research could study the predictive ability of such models in other emerging markets.     

频繁并购重组与异常审计收费

以2012—2017年A股上市公司为样本,采用异常审计费用衡量审计师对上市公司频繁并购重组的风险溢价,探究企业频繁并购重组与审计师风险溢价收费的关系,研究发现企业频繁并购重组会导致审计师风险溢价提高。从商誉和盈余管理角度探究其路径机制发现,商誉和真实盈余管理是频繁并购重组导致更高审计师风险溢价两个重要中介变量,而应计盈余管理并没有发挥中介作用,即频繁并购重组企业操纵利润的手段倾向于采用真实盈余管理,而非应计盈余管理。     

Equity premium prediction and optimal portfolio decision with Bagging

We propose using the statistical method of Bagging to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample for multivariate regression models. Bagging allows for the flexible and efficient extraction of valuable informational content from a large set of predictors, leading to statistically and economically significant gains relative to not only the historical mean, but also other soft-threshold methods such as forecast combinations and shrinkage estimators in our empirical results. Furthermore, we find that the source of economic gains for Bagging primarily comes from the fact that it encourages the investor to actively manage portfolio by flexibly utilizing short selling or leveraging to better time the market following correctly prognosticated trends. However, other strategies such as forecast combinations keep the equity shares nearly fixed regardless of the predicted market prospect.