工程投标报价的优化

在报价低者为优的评标规则下，报价、中标可得利润与中标概率总是成反比，最优报价为中标可得利润与中标概率的乘积最大时所对应的报价。结合案例详细分析了只有一个具体竞争对手，有若干具体竞争对手，已知对手数目但不知具体对象，既不知对手数目也不知具体对象四种情况下的报价决策方法。     

新股投资实证分析

本文以2002年7月初至2003年6月底一年间在沪市首次发行上市的56只新股为样本,运用灰色关联度分析方法对影响新股初始收益率的各因素进行了分析,并对初始收益率与新股短中期收益率关系进行了研究。     

行为公司财务的最新发展及其启示

行为金融学目前已逐渐成为金融学研究中的一个重要领域,在它的影响下,公司财务领域内也形成了行为公司财务的研究范式。与经典的公司财务理论相比,行为公司财务引入了行为因素的影响,它认为外部市场的非有效性和内部管理者的非理性影响着公司的财务决策和公司价值最大化的行为。文章简单总结了行为公司财务的最新研究进展,也就是市场的非有效性和管理者的非理性对公司的融资政策、投资政策、股利政策和并购行为等各方面的影响。针对目前我国资本市场的非有效性,文章认为在我国上市公司的财务研究中应该引入行为公司财务的理论范式和研究方法,才能使得研究前提和结果符合我国的实际经济情况。     

自卸汽车加伍德式举升机构优化设计数学模型

文章建立了自卸汽车加伍德式举升机构优化设计数学模型,给出了其优化设计目标函数min(KO)=min[(XG·DAEC)/(DOEC·DAEB)]和其评价指标α=Pmax/P-1,并介绍了约束条件的给出方法以及本优化设计数学模型的应用注意事项,为企业的自卸汽车设计提供了一套良好的设计方法。     

模糊综合评判在ERP实施时机决策中的应用

文章研究了利用模糊数学方法,将模糊综合评判理论应用于对ERP实施时机决策,建立影响ERP实施的因素体系,构造隶属函数建立数学模型,通过数据处理与分析确定最佳ERP实施时机,克服了传统决策方法的种种弊端,对于ERP的实施时机决策提供了一条新的可行途径。     

Linear learning in changing environments

The decision maker receives signals imperfectly correlated with an unobservable state variable and must take actions whose payoffs depend on the state. The state randomly changes over time. In this environment, we examine the performance of simple linear updating rules relative to Bayesian learning. We show that a range of parameters exists for which linear learning results in exactly the same decisions as Bayesian learning, although not in the same beliefs. Outside this parameter range, we use simulations to demonstrate that the consumption level attainable under the optimal linear rule is virtually indistinguishable from the one attainable under Bayes’ rule, although the respective decisions will not always be identical. These results suggest that simple rules of thumb can have an advantage over Bayesian updating when more complex calculations are more costly to perform than less complex ones. We demonstrate the implications of such an advantage in an evolutionary model where agents “learn to learn.”     

Are hyperinflation paths learnable?

Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized model. Our main focus is on stationary hyperinflationary paths near the high-inflation steady state. These paths are shown to be stable under least-squares learning if agents can utilize contemporaneous data. In an economy with a mixture of agents, some of whom only have access to lagged data, stable hyperinflationary paths emerge only if the proportion of agents with access to contemporaneous data is sufficiently high.     

Value and liquidity under changing market conditions

Papers studying the liquidity of a market tend to focus on decisions involving the trade-off between the selling price and the time-till-sale for a given set of market conditions. This paper characterizes market conditions using a price-probability locus; a change in market conditions is some combination of changes in the level and/or slope of this locus. I show how the effect of either type of change on price and on the probability-of-sale can be decomposed into those commonly associated with an increase in the value and those which involve a substitution between price and probability. Two adding-up conditions restrict the set of possible predictions. Though the discussion focusses on real estate market, where scarcity is rationed by a mechanism which combines search and bargaining, the same ideas apply to markets with other types of selling mechanisms.     

基于北部湾经济区物流环节协同的桂北物流体系构建研究

北部湾经济区发展的首要定位是建成我国西南地区的物流中心,物流是北部湾经济区的首要发展产业。作为广西的桂北地区,北部湾经济区如何抓住历史机遇,充分发挥自己的优势,融入经济快速发展的潮流中,是一个非常值得研究的课题。文章从物流环节的角度,提出了桂北物流企业与北部湾经济区物流企业协同发展的3种模式,分析了构建协同模式的途径,对桂北物流的发展具有一定的指导意义。     

Benefit of Employees and Motivation for Earnings Manipulation—— A Case Study of Employee Shares

The employee shares of Guilin Jiqi became tradable in stock exchanges from June 2000. The firm coincidently made up her profit disclosed in the semi-annual report. After ruling out other explanations, we find that the fraud of Guilin Jiqi seems to be intended to help her employees （not including top managers） to reap profits at the expense of misled investors. Our findings offer a potential insight into relating employee shares to insider selling.