The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility

Stock prices reflect the value of anticipated future profits of companies. Since business cycle conditions impact the future profitability of firms, expectations about the business cycle will affect the current value of firms. This paper uses daily and monthly data from July 1986 to December 2000 to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of US technology stock price conditional volatility. Technology share prices are measured using the Pacific Stock Exchange Technology 100 Index. One of the novel features of this paper is to incorporate a link between technology stock price movements and oil price movements. The empirical results indicate that the conditional volatilities of oil prices, the term premium, and the consumer price index each have a significant impact on the conditional volatility of technology stock prices. Conditional volatilities calculated using daily stock return data display more persistence than conditional volatilities calculated using monthly data. These results further our understanding of the interaction between oil prices and technology share prices and should be of use to investors, hedgers, managers, and policymakers.     

Mood and Judgment of Subjective Probabilities: Evidence from the U.S. Index Option Market

Numerous psychological studies show that weather conditions affect people'smood and that mood states are correlated with people's subjective evaluationof future probabilities. In this paper, a new approach is developed and assetmarket data are employed to test the mood-subjective probability relation. Cloudcover and precipitation volume serve as two mood proxies. Our statistical analysissuggests that bad mood states are characterized by investors placing higher probabilitieson adverse events.     

Process implications of the use of the Internet in new product development: a conceptual analysis

New product development requires a long and detailed process with numerous activities such as product line planning, strategy development, concept generation and screening, business analysis, development, testing and validation, manufacturing development and commercialization. Furthermore, each of these activities has its own unique requirements, some requiring information collection from the market, whereas others requiring the collaboration of different people who are involved in the new product development activities. This paper investigates the Internet's role in these activities and develops research propositions. In addition, it discusses how the impact of the Internet might change based on different products and different organizational conditions.     

我国涉外企业外汇交易风险研究

随着世界经济逐步向全球一体化的方向发展以及我国对WTO相关条款的逐步履行,我国与其他国家的经济往来也变得更加频繁。更为重要的是,我国外汇管理体制改革的进一步深化和外汇市场的发展和完善,使得人民币汇率开始走向市场,汇率变动的频率和范围将大大增强。因此,在这一背景下,本文以科学性和前瞻性为指导原则,通过阐述我国涉外企业面临的外汇交易风险现状和问题,揭示这类企业加强外汇交易风险管理的必要性,在此基础上,来探讨外汇交易风险对我国涉外企业净利润的影响,最终结合我国外汇管理体制改革的实践,提出有效防范和规避外汇交易风险的建议和对策。     

我国国家助学制度的问题分析与财政对策选择

国家助学制度是解决大学生入学机会公平的一种有效的手段,在我国已有50多年的历史,目前已形成了多元混合的制度体系,为我国教育改革和发展提供了前提条件,但也存在不足和缺陷。本文从我国国家助学制度现行状况入手,对存在的问题进行了剖析,提出了若干可行的解决建议。     

论股权配给作用于宏观经济波动的机理

当宏观经济进入衰退阶段时,由于融资企业的股权配给,融资企业投资的边际破产成本上升,这将导致融资企业的投资下降,在投资乘数原理和加速数原理的相互作用下,会使宏观经济衰退更加严重,宏观经济陷入经济衰退与股权配给相互作用的恶性循环中,宏观经济衰退的程度会进一步加大。当宏观经济进入繁荣阶段时,具有与上述相类似的过程,会导致宏观经济持续过度繁荣。因此,股权配给是宏观经济波动的加速器。我国的现实是,从微观上看,上市公司具有强烈的股权融资偏好;从宏观上看,政府进行股权配给。两者的共同作用,使股权配给具有平抑宏观经济波动的功能。     

论中国政府预算管理改革的优先序--兼议绩效预算在中国的适用性

绩效预算是西方国家实践证明了的先进的预算管理模式。但绩效预算的实行需要社会相关制度环境的配套。中国目前尚不具备实施绩效预算的基本条件。中国预算制度改革的当务之急是建立控制取向的预算管理模式,解决财务合规性问题。待相关条件具备后,再选择绩效预算管理模式。     

发挥政府采购政策效应促进中小企业发展

经过几十年的发展,中小企业已经成为我国科技创新、增加就业的重要力量,在市场经济体制的建立和城镇化的过程中有着举足轻重的作用,为整个国民经济的持续、健康发展做出了重要贡献,是社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分。但是,由于种种主客观原因,中小企业的发展困难重重,其中以资金不足为最。与此同时,我国政府采购的规模不断扩大,估计在今年要达到3000亿,这对我国企业的发展会起到非常大的促进作用,但从总体看,中小企业参与政府采购的程度很低,政府采购本身对中小企业的关注还很不够,这将是中小企业丧失很多难得的发展机会。为此,本文将从中小企业的现状和作用入手,分析政府采购支持中小企业发展的理论依据和法律依据,并着重提出发挥政府采购促进我国中小企业发展的对策建议。     

中国国有银行改革的理论与实践问题

当前对国有银行改革的讨论应立足于其初始条件,国有独资银行与商业银行不相容,国有银行具有特殊的职能边界———金融支持国家经济增长;在我国特定的历史阶段,国有银行改革应遵循两种截然相异的路径:完全的股份制或国有独资,而国有控股将导致较高的道德风险;机构利益的独立性并非国有银行的专有问题,通过激励机制设计应该保持国有独资银行的利益从属于中央政府的经济金融政策;国有银行的分支机构和人力资源在不同的改革思路下会具有“历史包袱”和“历史财富”的或然双重性质,关键在于能否从时间序列上观察银行绩效;银行改革成本只能是因支持经济增长和经济体制改革所付出的代价,这一代价的跨期承担优于即期摊销。     

浅谈西藏社会主义新农村建设

目前,西藏正在进行着社会主义新农村建设的伟大实践。西藏社会主义新农村建设具有划时代的重要意义。但由于历史和社会的种种因素影响,西藏社会主义新农村建设中面临很多困难和问题,文章针对这些问题进行了西藏社会主义新农村建设的着力点分析。