基于面向对象编程的串行通信技术的实现

主要介绍了如何利用Visual basic和Vc 在不同环境下实现对串口的控制，并分析了window环境下的常用串行通信编程方法。     

城市货运发展统计数据分析与建模

21世纪的物流在上海的经济活动中扮演着重要的角色,货运在城市交通中所占的比重日益增 加,如何科学地预测货运总量的发展趋势,对上海城市交通规划有着重要的意义。本文采用基于时间序列的 ARIMA模型,构建了上海货运总量发展模型,并对上海中短期的货运发展情况进行预测。     

非对称信息下商业银行资本配置研究——基于PCA理论模型分析

资本配置是银行风险管理的核心,是决定银行竞争力的重要因素.经典的资本配置理论均以信息在银行内部各机构完全对称作为基本假设,忽略了总分行问的委托代理关系.鉴于此,本文借鉴PCA模型,在商业银行内部构建一套资本配置的优化机制,以提高银行资本配置的有效性.     

房地产价格波动与投机行为--对中国14城市的实证研究

本文首先构建了适合中国的房地产投机理论模型,然后利用该模型对中国14个城市房地产价格波动与投机行为的关系进行实证研究.对14城市的时间序列数据研究结果表明各城市房地产投机水平都很高,个别城市更加突出.通过对14城市的截面数据分析,可以看出可支配收入对房地产价格没有显著影响,这些城市房地产价格的上升,主要是由投机来推动的,而且整体投机度非常高,说明房地产价格极大的偏离长期均衡值,市场出现了非理性繁荣,政府和产业部门应该采取适当的措施,积极引导消费者和投资者,为建立均衡的房地产市场提供良好的宏观和微观环境.     

In search of marginal environmental valuations — ecosystem services in Finnish forest accounting

There is currently substantial interest in valuing various services provided by different ecosystems. Concurrently economists have ascribed substantial effort on expanding traditional forest accounting systems by environmental services. This paper contributes to curtailing the existing gap between green accounting theory and applications for valuing forest ecosystem services. The multitude of links between forest ecosystem services and economy are characterized by the theoretical model for forest-economy interactions. By utilizing recently updated data we also incorporate empirical value estimates of these services comparable to other goods into Finnish forest accounting system. Finally, we discuss some problems encountered and clarify the interpretation of some value estimates incorporated to national forest account.     

Monitoring the mean and the variance of a stationary process

We deal with the problem of how deviations in the mean or the variance of a time series can be detected. Several simultaneous control charts are introduced which are based on EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average) statistics for the mean and the empirical variance. The combined X − S² EWMA chart is extended to time series. Further simultaneous charts are considered. The comparision of these schemes shows that the residual attempt must be favored if a variance change is present.     

A modified logit model for time series with an application to the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms in Australia

The modified logit model (Amemiya and Nold, 1975) is generalised to the case where the error term is autocorrelated. The asymptotic distribution (as n →∞ and T →∞) of a feasible GLS estimator of β is derived. Tests of linear restrictions on β and the significance of ρ are presented. The results of the applied work suggest that the factors which explain the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms, as reported in the tendency survey conducted by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Westpac Banking Corporation, include historical inflation rates of up to 7 quarters and capacity utilisation. First version received: March 2001/Final version received: July 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  The first draft of this paper was written while the author was on study leave at the Department of Econometrics, University of Sydney, Australia.     

浅析长拳类套路演练中的节奏

掌握节奏是套路演练中的关键环节,本文从长拳类套路演练中节奏的涵义、节奏在套路演练中所体现的价值以及演练中如何更好地掌握节奏这三个方面出发,在查找相关文献资料、总结自身教学经验的基础上,运用总结、归纳等方法进行了分析论述.     

企业物流绩效评价的主成分分析(PCA)方法

以企业物流绩效为研究对象,建立了物流绩效评价的指标体系,利用主成分分析方法对物流绩效进行综合评价,实例分析表明该方法能有效地评价企业物流绩效,符合客观实际,评价结果全面、合理。     

Impatience and equilibrium indeterminacy

This paper extends the neoclassical one-sector optimal growth model by postulating that individual agents’ time preference (impatience) depends on the economy-wide average consumption and average income, which are social factors taken as external by individual agents. The paper shows that with the socially determined individual time preference local equilibrium indeterminacy can arise. Moreover, local indeterminacy can also be associated with global indeterminacy in many cases. The results hold in models with bounded and unbounded growth.