基于时间序列的山东省人均GDP分析与预测

人均国内生产总值综合考虑了一个地区经济总量和人口基数,能够较好地反映一个地区经济增长和居民经济生活水平。本文以1978—2013年的山东省人均GDP数据为样本,用时间序列分析方法建立自回归预测模型。根据预测,山东省“十二五”期间人均GDP呈现出先慢后快的增长特点,可能原因是前期受金融危机影响较大,后期影响逐渐减弱。政府应保持宏观经济政策连续性稳定性,不断扩大开放,实施创新驱动,加快转方式调结构促升级,深化国民收入分配体制改革,实现经济持续健康发展和社会和谐稳定。     

福建省GDP时间序列模型建立及实证分析

根据福建省1981—2011年GDP数据,利用Eviews6.0计量经济学软件和时间序列理论,建立了求和回归移动平均模型ARIMA(4,1,1),并根据模型进行实证分析,结果表明GDP预测效果较好,平均误差9.91%,并预测2014年GDP产值为22 569.578亿元。     

Effects of time processing orientation, agreement preferences and attitude towards foreign businessmen on negotiation adaptation

An experiment was conducted among Singaporean executives to determine how they adapt to a foreign partner depending on the partner's time processing orientation and agreement preferences, and their attitude towards businessmen from the country the foreign partner was from. Results showed that Singaporean executives tended to have monochronic time processing and preferred written to oral agreements. Further, when a foreign partner exhibited a monochronic processing orientation, these executives had greater liking for and were more willing to accept this trait than when he had a polychronic processing orientation. Liking for the foreign partner was also enhanced. In terms of agreement preferences, the executives showed greater liking for and willingness to accept the trait when the foreign partner had a written than an oral preference. Finally, willingness to accept the foreign partner as a business partner was enhanced once they knew where the foreign partner came from, regardless of their attitude towards businessmen from that country. Implications are discussed and directions for future research furnished.     

加强系统培训,提高入境旅游接待水平——发展浙江入境旅游对策之一

本文以中国入境旅游发展成就与问题并存为大背景,在对浙江省入境旅游发展与人才供求现状分析基础上,提出了加强系统培训,提高入境旅游接待水平的对策,从政府、学校、企业、语言培训和培训模式等5 个方面进行了比较详尽的阐述,期望有助于提高浙江省入境旅游接待质量,发展入境旅游事业。     

Pricing assets with stochastic cash-flow growth

We model the time series behavior of dividend growth rates, as well as the profitability rate, with a variety of autoregressive moving-average processes, and use the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the appropriate discount rate. One of the most important implications of this research is that the rate of return beta changes with the time to maturity of the expected cash flow, and the degree of mean reversion displayed by the growth rate. We explore the consequences of this observation for three different strands of the literature. The first is for the value premium anomaly, the second for stock valuation and learning about long-run profitability, and the third is for the St. Petersburg paradox. One of the most surprising results is that the CAPM implies a higher rate of return beta for value stocks than growth stocks. Therefore, value stocks must have higher expected returns, and this is what is required theoretically in order to explain the well-known value premium anomaly.     

基于相空间重构及自适应支持向量机的短期风速预测

风速具有较强的随机性和间歇性,导致大规模风电接入电网会严重影响电力系统的安全稳定运行以及电能质量。较为准确的风速预测可以降低风能对电网的不利影响,为电网运行调度提供可靠的依据。在对风速进行混沌属性分析及相空间重构的基础上,采用自适应支持向量机进行短期风速预测,结果表明该方法的预测精度高于BP、RBF等预测模型。     

Time is not money

In an ultimatum bargaining experiment, we study how subjects bargain over the returns to their investments of money and time. The most notable finding is that a third of the subjects demand no compensation for their time investments, whereas almost all subjects demand compensation for equally costly monetary investments.     

Women’s investment in career and the household division of labour

This paper examines how partners in a couple share domestic work according to the woman’s investment in career. Investment is measured relatively to other women or to the partner. While previous studies mainly focused on the influence of wages and earnings, we extend them by considering more dimensions describing the intensity of the woman’s attachment to the labour market. We use the 2010 French Time Use survey to estimate a model of household division of labour in dual earner couples. We find that the more women are invested in career, the less domestic work they perform during weekdays, which is partly substituted by their partners but only on weekend days. The sharing of tasks is thus less unequal in those couples. However, women still spend more time than their partners on average performing domestic work, even when the woman outperforms him in career, implying no role reversal in the division of labour.     

Working Time as Gendered Time

Household-labor time and market-labor time are organized in part through the social structure of unequal gender relations. Generally, women do more household work than men, women's market work is undervalued, and the greatest rewards for market work accrue to men. The career model of employment is biased in favor of men who have few household responsibilities. Even noncareer seniority-sensitive job paths assume male incumbency with limited competition from household responsibilities. In this article we discuss the gendered underpinnings of the organization of time in contemporary Western society by critically examining household-labor time and the masculine models of career and noncareer employment. In addition to the important feminist goal of pay equity, we argue for a feminist politics of time that promotes alternative work-time arrangements for women and men to foster gender equality in the market and at home.