Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily dollar exchange rates

We perform out-of-sample predictions on several dollar exchange rate returns by using time-delay embedding techniques and a local linear predictor. We compared our predictions with those by a mean value predictor. Some of our predictions of the exchange rate returns outperform the predictions of the same series by the mean value predictor. However, these improvements were not statistically significant. Another interesting result in this paper which was obtained by using a recently developed technique of nonlinear dynamics is that all exchange rate return series we tested have a very high embedding dimension. Additionally, evidence indicates that these series are likely generated by high dimensional systems with measurement noise or by high dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems, that is, nonlinear deterministic systems with dynamic noise.     

Evaluation of American option prices in a path integral framework using Fourier–Hermite series expansions

In this paper we review the path integral technique which has wide applications in statistical physics and relate it to the backward recursion technique which is widely used for the evaluation of derivative securities. We formulate the pricing of equity options, both European and American, using the path integral framework. Discretising in the time variable and using expansions in Fourier–Hermite series for the continuous representation of the underlying asset price, we show how these options can be evaluated in the path integral framework. For American options, the solution technique facilitates the accurate determination of the early exercise boundary as part of the solution. Additionally, the continuous representation of the state variable allows the relatively accurate and efficient evaluation of the option prices and the delta hedge ratio.     

On de-seasonalising adjusted-average formulae

The techniques of Borgan (1979) are extended to cover data with seasonal variations. Examples are given, and it is suggested that the formulae presented here give smoother results than those traditionally employed to deal with economic time series subject to seasonal variations.     

A time‐series approach to the determination of savings rates

Time series analysis is used to study the savings rate and its determinants. The real effective exchange rate is introduced as a new independent variable in the savings function. Borrowing constraints, the current account balance, real rate of interest, macroeconomic stability, and age dependency are shown to be significant determinants of the savings rate. In addition, the real effective exchange rate is found to be significant across countries. Violations of Purchasing Power Parity are shown to explain some of the differences in savings rates between Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.     

Econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change

A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometricmodel in the presence of structural change of an evolutionarytype. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn fromthe self-organisation approach and operationalised in the contextof the logistic diffusion growth model. The latter is augmentedto allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusionrate and boundary limit. We show how the hypothesis of augmentedlogistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods.An illustrative case study is used, namely the growth and declineof Australian Building Society Deposits. With the aid of thisexample, it is shown how the approach could be of use to botheconomic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structuralchange where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate.     

Experiential Marketing and Long-Term Sales

This study investigates the ability of winery tasting rooms to create brand awareness and build long-term brand loyalty. Specifically, we test the conjecture that if tasting rooms create brand awareness and a pleasurable tasting room experience, then those visitors are more likely to recognize and seek out those brands once they leave the tasting room. To measure these effects, we exploit differences in tasting room characteristics to conduct a series of natural experiments from which we analyze differences in off-premise retail sales away from the tasting room. We use scan data on wine sold off-premise through traditional retail outlets to then test for differences among tasting room characteristics. Our results indicate that tasting rooms act as a form of experiential marketing for wineries, creating brand awareness and generating greater growth in off-premise retail sales. Finally, we address issues of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity as potential sources of bias.     

The Psychological Influences of Threat on B2C E-commerce Adoption: An Extended Study and Explanatory Framework

In order to better understand how internet users actually decide to conduct business transactions or related activities in a B2C e-commerce environment, this article adds a new lens of study by investigating the roles of Threat Appraisal (TA) and Perceived Coping Appraisal (PCA) from the end user's perspective. Based on established academic theories and relevant industrial practices, it is suggested that TA and PCA are critical behavioral components influencing the user's intentions to participate in online transactions. These functions serve as important inputs to formalizing our understanding of how services offered by e-commerce websites are utilized.     

FDI流量变化对中国宏观经济的影响分析

改革开放以来,我国利用FDI的总额不断增长,规模不断扩大,为经济发展作出了极大贡献。为了解FDI对我国经济的具体影响,文章利用我国1983—2008年统计资料中的时间序列数据,利用VAR模型分析FDI对我国经济发展的影响和贡献。