Do perceptions of time affect outbound-travel motivations and intention? An investigation among Chinese seniors

How people conceptualise time can play a critical role in their travel intention. However, relatively little research attention has been directed to the links between time perspective, outbound-travel motivation and outbound-travel intention. In this study, survey data from a sample of Chinese seniors were analysed to test hypotheses regarding these links. The results showed that present-time perspective and future-time perspective were directly related to travel motivation, and that the associations between present and future perspectives and travel intention were fully mediated by travel motivation. These findings not only highlight the relevance of time-perspective styles to travel research, but also have specific implications for tourism-destination marketers with senior audiences.     

Modifying and applying time and cost blocks: The case of E-Da theme park,Kaohsiung, Taiwan

The main purpose of this study is to modify and apply a management tool called time and cost blocks (TCB). The model was modified to adjust how the “benefit indicator” was measured and further enhanced by inclusion of visitor satisfaction scores and revisiting intention. Data collection was accomplished by means of a diary-type semi-structured questionnaire, which was administered in face-to-face interviews with 655 visitors of the E-Da World theme park in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. The results indicate that participation intensity (PI) and benefit indicator (BI) have a significant relationship with satisfaction and revisiting intention.     

When was the U.S. housing downturn predictable? A comparison of univariate forecasting methods

This paper uses three classes of univariate time series techniques (ARIMA type models, switching regression models, and state-space/structural time series models) to forecast, on an ex post basis, the downturn in U.S. housing prices starting around 2006. The performance of the techniques is compared within each class and across classes by out-of-sample forecasts for a number of different forecast points prior to and during the downturn. Most forecasting models are able to predict a downturn in future home prices by mid 2006. Some state-space models can predict an impending downturn as early as June 2005. State-space/structural time series models tend to produce the most accurate forecasts, although they are not necessarily the models with the best in-sample fit.     

时段基因模式的财务指标分析与应用

本文结合时间序列的概念和遗传算法中的模式原理,提出了时段基因模式概念,将财务指标随时间变化的增减趋势转化为时段基因模式。用统计方法对大规模财务指标进行时间序列分析,得到具有一定特征性的指标时段基因子模式,对我国上市公司的财务危机预警问题预测准确度最高可达95%。     

A management orientated approach to combination forecasting of tourism demand

Volatility, exponential smoothing, regression and Naïve 2 models are considered singly and in combination in terms of forecasting demand for international tourism. These models generate accurate predictions of tourism flows, but their prime utility is when combined with other models. Usually, models are combined by means of purely statistical criteria. We show that goal programming (GP) offers an alternative, flexible approach to model combination. GP offers planners a practical solution to tourism forecasting problems, since the method is more adaptable than conventional minimisation of prediction error, by permitting practitioners to prioritise a series of management related goals. Forecasters can focus on longer- and short-term goals, minimising forecast under- and over-estimation and/or concentrate on prediction errors in tourism flows at various times of the year.     

基于主成分分析法的员工工作满意度分析

针对A企业的员工工作满意度进行了问卷调查,并运用统计学的主成分分析法和层次分析法对问卷回收的相关数据进行分析。结果表明:①A企业员工对其个人发展前景感到满意的比重高于对企业发展前景、工作环境以及收入分配感到满意的比重;②A企业员工对工作感到基本满意的比重只有一半左右。这说明A企业在创造更好的工作条件来提高员工的满意度方面还有很长的路要走。     

Culture and age as moderators in the corporate reputation and loyalty relationship

This study investigates the moderating role of culture and relationship age in the relationship between customer-based corporate reputation (CBR) and customer loyalty using data from two service contexts (retailing and fast-food restaurants) in three countries (France, the U.K., and the U.S.) that differ with regards to two cultural values—uncertainty avoidance and time orientation. Results suggest that CBR has similar effects on affective and intentional loyalty in all three countries. However, culture interacts with relationship age, such that relationship age magnifies the effect of CBR in France, while relationship age suppresses CBR's effect in the U.K. and the U.S. The authors provide explanations for these effects based on cultural theories. Managerial and research implications are developed.     

我国房地产市场的短期量价变化研究及预测

文章在对我国房地产市场走势进行定性分析的基础上,综合运用时间序列方法,对房地产市场的短期量价变化进行了研究和预测。文章认为,应通过加大落实保障性住房建设力度,保障城市中低收入居民利益;加强房地产价格调控力度,坚决打击房地产投机行为;拓宽都市圈系统建设范围,促使更多地区推进城市化建设等措施促进房价稳定以及房地产市场的健康发展。     

龙海市县域农用地整理规划

研究目的:基于农用地质量以及自组织映射神经网络空间聚类模型,研究县域农用地整理规划。研究方法:主成分分析法,自组织映射神经网络空间聚类模型。研究结果:(1)规划近期农用地整理重点应放在农用地质量等级较好的Ⅱ级与Ⅲ级区域,主要分布于角美、海澄、东园等乡镇;(2)规划中期则以农用地质量Ⅳ级区域为主要整理区,分布于白水、东泗、浮宫等乡镇;(3)规划远期以质量等级差的Ⅴ级农用地为规划区域,分布于港尾、隆教、程溪等乡镇的丘陵山地区。研究结论:基于农用地质量PCA主因子和自组织映射神经网络空间聚类模型的农用地规划能客观反映农用地质量的区域差异性,对县域农用地整理规划、精细型基本农田整理规划以及整理重点项目立项等工作均有借鉴意义。     

基于时间竞争的供应链再造模式与策略研究

通过对供应链进行时间价值分析,指出了面向时间竞争的供应链再造的目标和意义;定义了面向时间竞争的供应链再造的两种基本模式,即外延型再造和内涵型再造,分析了两者的特点和差异;给出了面向时间竞争的供应链再造的策略框架,包括结构再造和运行策略再造,最后对物流和信息流两个维度的时间压缩进行了具体分析.