传统组景序列调查反映的中国古代游憩偏好

中国古代的大量组景序列实例提供了研究中国古代游憩偏好和游憩行为的大量史料.本研究已收集200套组景序列案例,包括中国、日本的实景以及绘画实例.其中已有明确定位的142组中国实景实例,分布在与北宋疆域大致相符的范围内.本研究采用随机选出的100套组景序列共812个单独景观进行分析,显示出自然景现在中国古代游憩欣赏中所占的重要比重,同时表明了中国传统游憩偏好不同于西方的几点特性.     

U.S. Virgin Islands National Park:

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Forecasting in Short-Term Planning and Management for a Casino Buffet Restaurant

SUMMARY

Demand fluctuation accounts for an important consideration in a restaurant's daily operational decisions. Good short-term planning and management require accurate forecasts of daily demand. The objective of this study is three-fold: (1) to apply, evaluate, and compare different methods of forecasting customer counts for an on-premises buffet restaurant of a local casino in Las Vegas, (2) to describe and propose a combined forecasting approach for this casino buffet restaurant, and (3) to explore the concept of revenue and capacity management for this buffet restaurant. Eight forecasting models were tested and evaluated by two common error measures. The results suggest that a double moving average model was the most accurate model with the smallest MAPE and RMSPE. Extensive discussions on forecasting and planning/management in buffet operations are provided along with recommended future research.     

Spiritual Functions of Leisure and Spiritual Well-Being: Coping with Time Pressure

The purpose of this study was to develop a model of leisure style and spiritual well-being relationships, and the processes (spiritual functions of leisure) by which leisure can influence spiritual well-being. Also, the role of leisure in ameliorating the effects of time pressure on spiritual well-being was examined. Structural equation modeling using AMOS was employed to test direct and indirect effects models of the relationships among components of leisure style (leisure activity participation, leisure motivation, and leisure time), spiritual functions of leisure (sacrilization, repression avoidance, sense of place) and spiritual well-being (both behavioral and subjective). The model developed suggests that some components of people's leisure styles lead to certain behaviors and experiences (spiritual functions of leisure) that maintain or enhance spiritual well-being. These spiritual functions of leisure may also serve as coping strategies to ameliorate the negative influence of time pressure on spiritual well-being.     

Experiential Marketing and Long-Term Sales

This study investigates the ability of winery tasting rooms to create brand awareness and build long-term brand loyalty. Specifically, we test the conjecture that if tasting rooms create brand awareness and a pleasurable tasting room experience, then those visitors are more likely to recognize and seek out those brands once they leave the tasting room. To measure these effects, we exploit differences in tasting room characteristics to conduct a series of natural experiments from which we analyze differences in off-premise retail sales away from the tasting room. We use scan data on wine sold off-premise through traditional retail outlets to then test for differences among tasting room characteristics. Our results indicate that tasting rooms act as a form of experiential marketing for wineries, creating brand awareness and generating greater growth in off-premise retail sales. Finally, we address issues of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity as potential sources of bias.     

Do perceptions of time affect outbound-travel motivations and intention? An investigation among Chinese seniors

How people conceptualise time can play a critical role in their travel intention. However, relatively little research attention has been directed to the links between time perspective, outbound-travel motivation and outbound-travel intention. In this study, survey data from a sample of Chinese seniors were analysed to test hypotheses regarding these links. The results showed that present-time perspective and future-time perspective were directly related to travel motivation, and that the associations between present and future perspectives and travel intention were fully mediated by travel motivation. These findings not only highlight the relevance of time-perspective styles to travel research, but also have specific implications for tourism-destination marketers with senior audiences.     

Modifying and applying time and cost blocks: The case of E-Da theme park,Kaohsiung, Taiwan

The main purpose of this study is to modify and apply a management tool called time and cost blocks (TCB). The model was modified to adjust how the “benefit indicator” was measured and further enhanced by inclusion of visitor satisfaction scores and revisiting intention. Data collection was accomplished by means of a diary-type semi-structured questionnaire, which was administered in face-to-face interviews with 655 visitors of the E-Da World theme park in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. The results indicate that participation intensity (PI) and benefit indicator (BI) have a significant relationship with satisfaction and revisiting intention.     

Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the use of several parametric and nonparametric forecasting techniques for predicting tourism demand in selected European countries. We find that no single model can provide the best forecasts for any of the countries in the short-, medium- and long-run. The results, which are tested for statistical significance, enable forecasters to choose the most suitable model (from those evaluated here) based on the country and horizon for forecasting tourism demand. Should a single model be of interest, then, across all selected countries and horizons the Recurrent Singular Spectrum Analysis model is found to be the most efficient based on lowest overall forecasting error. Neural Networks and ARFIMA are found to be the worst performing models.     

A management orientated approach to combination forecasting of tourism demand

Volatility, exponential smoothing, regression and Naïve 2 models are considered singly and in combination in terms of forecasting demand for international tourism. These models generate accurate predictions of tourism flows, but their prime utility is when combined with other models. Usually, models are combined by means of purely statistical criteria. We show that goal programming (GP) offers an alternative, flexible approach to model combination. GP offers planners a practical solution to tourism forecasting problems, since the method is more adaptable than conventional minimisation of prediction error, by permitting practitioners to prioritise a series of management related goals. Forecasters can focus on longer- and short-term goals, minimising forecast under- and over-estimation and/or concentrate on prediction errors in tourism flows at various times of the year.     

Evaluating portfolio Value-at-Risk using semi-parametric GARCH models

In this paper we examine the usefulness of multivariate semi-parametric GARCH models for evaluating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio with arbitrary weights. We specify and estimate several alternative multivariate GARCH models for daily returns on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes. Examining the within-sample VaRs of a set of given portfolios shows that the semi-parametric model performs uniformly well, while parametric models in several cases have unacceptable failure rates. Interestingly, distributional assumptions appear to have a much larger impact on the performance of the VaR estimates than the particular parametric specification chosen for the GARCH equations.