基于灰色预测模型的铁路客运量预测研究

在介绍灰色预测基本原理和算法的基础上,应用灰色预测理论开发了基于MATLAB的铁路客运量预测程序,主要功能是以交互的方式输入数据,动态输出显示模型曲线图形和方程。通过建立株洲站旅客发送量的灰色预测模型,说明利用灰色模型预测铁路客运量具有良好的精度,可以为客流组织提供依据。     

铁路行包运量预测模型研究

铁路行包运量预测是以运输需求和内部供给为导向,综合考虑各种影响因素,对行包运量现状和发展的正确把握.探讨利用人工神经网络结合主成分分析的方法,建立铁路行包运量预测模型,解释并预测行包专列开行后铁路行包运量的增长趋势.实例分析的仿真结果表明,采用主成分分析法的广义回归神经网络模型结构简洁、预测精度高、收敛速度快,对相关铁路部门和企业的决策具有参考意义.     

The effect of the car-parazzi system on traffic accidents in Korea

In 2001 and 2002, the Korean government rewarded around $3 to civilians who photograph and report violations of traffic rules. This so-called ‘car-parazzi system’ was such a success with well over 4 million cases reported until its abolition. Our empirical results found that the car-parazzi system was much effective in significantly reducing the death tolls by traffic accidents.     

Considerations in the diffusion of a public traffic app for Metro Manila

The proliferation of apps enabling motorists to access traffic information on the move introduces several intriguing possibilities for transportation authorities. In the expectation that public demand for these apps will increase as both road traffic and smartphone ownership rise, these tools invite consideration alongside other traffic management tools. Traffic app-specific considerations include increased motorist interactivity, consumer technology diffusion, and institutional factors affecting the rollout of e-government initiatives. This article uses the introduction of the MMDA Traffic Navigator—a Manila-based, publicly developed traffic app—to illustrate these considerations. Additionally, app usage among residents of nearby cities constituting Manila’s extended metropolitan region is considered. These considerations are subsequently classified using a 4E framework under economy, effectiveness, efficiency, and equity to inform other authorities’ efforts to either incorporate traffic apps into overall transport planning or even take the initiative in developing them.     

“四阶段法”中运量分配的路网断面剖切技术研究

针对四阶段法的运量分配过程中存在对路网动态变化的适应性反应迟钝、相关径路双向交流产生的大量回流量重复计算、通道交流量缺乏总量控制调节关键环节等问题,提出采用路网断面动态剖切技术,给出具体操作步骤和基本算法,并与传统运量分配方法进行优劣分析。通过宝中线运量预测的实例计算分析,说明断面剖切技术的实际应用。     

Tradable travel credits for congestion management with heterogeneous users

This paper carries on the recent work of Yang and Wang (2011) on tradable credit schemes by considering heterogeneous users with different value of time (VOT). Given a tradable credit scheme, the user equilibrium (UE) and market equilibrium (ME) conditions with heterogeneous users are formulated into a variational inequalities (VI) problem. Sufficient conditions for uniqueness of the aggregate UE link flows and then the ME credit price are established. Appropriate tradable credit schemes are developed to decentralize system optimal and Pareto-improving network flow patterns. Extension is made to the elastic demand case.     

铁路编组站布局的双层规划方法研究

运用双层规划对编组站布局问题进行描述,上层规划表示决策者为了达到车流组织最优而采取的最优投资策略,下层规划为给定编组站布局方案条件下的车流组织优化。通过对上层和下层问题分别剖析,构建了编组站布局的双层规划模型,考虑到模型的复杂性,提出应用遗传算法求解,并给出了求解策略。研究结果表明,双层规划方法适用于实际编组站布局问题决策。     

The distinction between commercial and non-commercial bus services in Germany: Given by nature?

German public transport services by bus are characterized by a regulatory framework that distinguishes between commercial and non-commercial services. Contrary to the apparent views of legislators, this paper shows that costs and revenues are not the only parameters determining whether or not operators are able to provide services in a commercially viable way.Apart from the local characteristics of the specific service, we show that the classification of services as commercial versus non-commercial is determined in large part by the public transport authorities that set minimum quality standards to be provided by operators. Our analysis shows that the authorities awarding the contracts in some cases affect market organization significantly depending on how they make use of this power. Furthermore, market organization differs substantially with respect to the awarding structure and the contractual relationships, thus creating a challenge for operators and authorities in an embryonic market.     

浅析醉酒驾驶行为的刑罚处罚

近年来,各地接连发生由于醉酒驾驶引发的群死群伤交通事故.由于缺少刑罚处罚依据,肇事者往往仅受到行政处罚,群众严惩酒后驾驶的呼声日渐高涨.醉酒驾驶入刑,体现了政府重典治理醉驾,加大对醉驾的执法力度.     

Impact of electronic road pricing on real estate prices in Singapore

Since 1998, Singapore has had an Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system set up with a network of toll gantries to tax vehicles entering designated areas in the city center during peak hours. Using the congestion rate hike with effect from November 1, 2010 as an exogenous shock, we test the effects of the ERP rate hike on retail, office and residential real estate prices. The results show that the November 2010 congestion toll rate increases cause a 19% drop in retail real estate prices within the cordon ERP areas relative to retail real estate prices outside the cordon ERP areas. The results are statistically and economically significant. However, the toll rate hike has no significant impact private office and residential real estate within cordoned ERP areas. The robustness and falsification tests could not reject the negative effects associated with the toll rate hike on retail real estate prices.