战后美国个人部门金融资产结构发展分析

中国GDP仅占全球7.3%,却掌握着约占全球25%的外汇储备。随着外汇储备不断增长,如何使用以实现效益最大化,已引起各方关注。本研究主要从以下两个视角展开:一是公共财政视角;二是金融视角。我国外汇储备资产具有财政与金融双重属性,决定了我国外汇储备资产运用上的双重功能:一方面,外汇储备的经济属性表明,外汇储备不是政府的财政性资金,不能无偿划拨和使用,需要作为资产来运用与管理;另一方面,在我国特殊的外汇管理体制下,经由外汇占款形成的外汇储备,构成基础货币的一个部分,这部分外汇储备实际上是政府通过货币发行权而获得的铸币税收入,是政府的财政性资金,从公平角度出发,这部分资金应该用于公共领域,以提高国民福利。     

International capital flows and U.S. interest rates

Foreign purchases of U.S. government bonds have an economically large and statistically significant impact on long-term interest rates. While the dramatic reductions in both long-term inflation expectations and the volatility of long rates contributed much to the decline of long rates in the 1990s, more recently foreign flows have become important. Controlling for various factors, we estimate that absent the substantial foreign inflows into U.S. government bonds the 10-year Treasury yield would be 80 basis points higher. Our results are robust to a number of alternative specifications.     

论基本养老保险基金投资国债的流程重塑

本文分析了当前基本养老保险基金投资国债面临的问题。本文认为,根据我国国债市场现状和我国基本养老基金的运行特点,应取消地方社保部门的养老基金管理权,归并养老基金投资账户,由中央政府养老基金管理机构统一招标确定基金托管银行和投资机构,地方社保部门再根据资金需求申购或赎回养老基金。     

The United States as an informed foreign-exchange speculator

US exchange-market interventions have no direct effect on market fundamentals, but they may influence expectations. If intervention has value as a forecast of exchange-rate movements, knowledge that the United States is trading will cause dealers to alter their prior estimates of the distribution of exchange-rate changes. This paper finds that US intervention has had value only as a forecast that recent exchange-rate movements would moderate. Less than half of the interventions, however, seemed successful, and the favorable results were generally confined to two short periods that were characterized by uncertainty about future Federal Reserve policies.     

我国国库集中收付及"收支两条线"制度的现状分析

我国国库集中收付及“收支两条线”制度是伴随着我国预算体制改革进程逐步发展起来的,在很大程度上完善了我国财政资金的管理,但仍存在诸多缺陷。本文总结分析了我国现行国库集中收付制度的优越性及其存在的不足,以便有针对性地在日后提出相应完善措施。     

国库会计主管的风险与防范

国库会计主管作为国库会计核算工作的重要管理人员和业务组织者,其履职情况的好坏将直接影响到其管辖的国库业务质量及资金安全。在现实中,部分国库会计主管特别是少数县支库会计主管,在工作中仍然存在着一些不容忽视的问题,如果不认真加以解决,就可能带来各种风险隐患,甚至导致资金风险的发生。     

Pre-auction short positions and impacts on primary dealers’ bidding behavior in US Treasury auctions

We model the uniform-price US Treasury security auction as a static symmetric game with incomplete information in which each player is a primary dealer who submits a demand schedule given two independent sources of private information: her/his pre-auction short position of the auctioned security and her/his valuation of this security. Under the assumptions of constant marginal value and additive separability of the demand schedule, we obtain closed-form solutions for the dealer’s optimal demand schedule, and we find that her/his pre-auction short position impacts her/his bidding behavior in three ways. First, the primary dealer’s demand for the auctioned security increases with her/his pre-auction short position. Second, the primary dealer’s differential bid shading decreases with her/his pre-auction short position. Third, primary dealers with higher pre-auction short positions assign lower values to the auctioned security. Based on our findings, we propose policy recommendations that would allow the US Treasury to increase taxpayers’ revenue.     

人民银行县(市)支行如何全面履行经理国库职责的思考

伴随着县域经济的快速发展和各项改革的不断推进,县级地方财政收入、国库库存和国库业务量大幅增长,人民银行县支行履行经理国库职责的要求日益提高.然而,面对职能定位偏低、机构合设、人员较少且素质较低等客观现实,县支行国库部门该如何履行职责,如何提高服务水平,成为当前工作的难点之一.本文以县城经济发展和宏观体制改革为背景,对县支行国库履职状况进行剖析,探讨县支行国库全面履职的必要性、存在的问题和困难,提出灵活选择三种国库设置模式,分三步走推进县支行国库建设的可行性意见.     

国库集中支付制度在高等院校实行的问题和建议

2010年9月26日,财政部下发了财库[2010]104号《中央单位教育收费收缴管理暂行办法》的通知通知中对教育收费收缴工作作了具体要求。国库集中支付是目前财政管理制度改革的一项重要内容,在高校实施国库集中支付制度,对高校的预算管理、财务管理、会计核算产生了深刻的影响。文章将国库集中支付制度与通知相结合论述了这项制度在高校具体实施过程中所引发的问题,并对此提出意见和建议。     

The Processing of Non-Anticipated Information in Financial Markets: Analyzing the Impact of Surprises in the Employment Report

This paper delineates the simultaneous impact of non-anticipated information on mean and variance of the intraday return process by including appropriate variables accounting for the news flow into both the mean and the variance function. This allows us to differentiate between the consistent price reaction to surprising news and the traders' uncertainty about the precise price impact of this information. Focussing on the US employment report, we find that headline information is almost instantaneously incorporated into T-bond futures prices. Nevertheless, large surprises, and `bad' news in particular, create considerable uncertainty. In contrast, if surprises in related headlines cross-validate each other, less room for differences of opinion is left and hence volatility is decreased.