云计算环境下的审计业务模式变革研究简

云计算环境下的审计业务模式是未来审计信息化发展的必然趋势。在归纳了IT环境下审计业务模式演变并从IT和审计两个角度诠释“云审计”及其国内外研究应用现状的基础上,以审计业务流程为主线,从云服务与审计结合的技术场景、云计算环境下的审计业务流程实现步骤以及云计算应用所引起的审计业务风险变化三个方面出发,分析云计算环境下的审计业务模式变革,为掌握云计算应用所带来的审计业务流程变革、迎接云审计时代的到来提供理论基础。     

Sustainable tourism planning and climate change adaptation in the Alps: a case study of winter tourism in mountain communities in the Dolomites

A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is extremely sensitive to climate change. Winter tourism is closely related to climate variations, especially in mountain regions where resorts are heavily dependent on snow. This paper explores how to effectively integrate a climate change adaptation perspective with local discourses about sustainability and tourism, an increasing priority for policy-makers in the region and elsewhere. It reports on the development and application of a participatory decision support process for the analysis of adaptation strategies for local development of an Alpine tourism destination, Auronzo di Cadore (Dolomites, Italy). This experience significantly contributed to the idea that an efficient combination of modelling capabilities, decision support tools, and participatory processes can substantially improve decision-making for sustainability. The authors show that, in this case study, such a combination of methods and tools allowed for managing the involvement of local actors, stimulating local debates on climate change adaptation and possible consequences on winter tourism, encouraging creativity and smoothing potential conflicts, and easing the integration of the qualitative knowledge and the preferences of the involved actors with quantitative information. This contributed to an integrated sustainability assessment of alternative strategies for sustainable tourism planning.     

The Legislator as Political Entrepreneur: Investment in Political Capital

This paper applies the standard Austrian theory of capital investment to the standard interest group model of legislator behavior. Distinguishing between reputational capital and representative capital as interdependent forms of political capital, I argue that legislator behavior (specifically roll call voting) can be explained as entrepreneurial investment in political capital under uncertainty. I discuss several examples in which this approach can potentially add predictive power regarding legislative voting.     

Equilibrium in a reinsurance market with short sale constraints

Summary. This paper deals with the existence of equilibrium in a dynamic reinsurance market with short sale constraints, driven by a marked point process, as studied in Bernis and Jouini (2001). We use the set of reinsurance treaties as consumption set, which is the positive orthant of some Banach lattice that can be identified to a space of martingales, . The properness of preferences is a key assumption for us to prove the existence of an equilibrium. We provide a sufficient condition for the preferences to be proper in term of loading factor of the reinsurance premium. Received: June 15, 2000; revised version: May 17, 2001     

Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

通用制造工艺分类编码标准研究

在对通用制造工艺进行调研的基础上,采用面分类法和线分类法相结合的方式对制造工艺进行分类,得到制造工艺分类标准草案,以及在此基础上对通用制造工艺进行编码,有效地解决了机械制造企业信息化过程中对通用制造工艺知识的交流与共享问题。     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

Limit theorems for reflected Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes

This paper studies one‐dimensional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) processes, with the distinguishing feature that they are reflected on a single boundary (put at level 0) or two boundaries (put at levels 0 and d > 0). In the literature, they are referred to as reflected OU (ROU) and doubly reflected OU (DROU), respectively. For both cases, we explicitly determine the decay rates of the (transient) probability to reach a given extreme level. The methodology relies on sample‐path large deviations, so that we also identify the associated most likely paths. For DROU, we also consider the ‘idleness process’ L_t and the ‘loss process’ U_t, which are the minimal non‐decreasing processes, which make the OU process remain ≥ 0 and ≤ d, respectively. We derive central limit theorems (CLTs) for U_t and L_t, using techniques from stochastic integration and the martingale CLT.     

云计算环境下的审计业务模式变革研究

云计算环境下的审计业务模式是未来审计信息化发展的必然趋势。在归纳了IT环境下审计业务模式演变并从IT和审计两个角度诠释“云审计”及其国内外研究应用现状的基础上,以审计业务流程为主线,从云服务与审计结合的技术场景、云计算环境下的审计业务流程实现步骤以及云计算应用所引起的审计业务风险变化三个方面出发,分析云计算环境下的审计业务模式变革,为掌握云计算应用所带来的审计业务流程变革、迎接云审计时代的到来提供理论基础。     

精益六西格玛应用实例

现今,精益六西格玛管理方法已被越来越多的企业所用,它所能够创造的价值也被更多的企业所认知。文章通过具体的实例对精益六西格玛在企业的应用进行总结,并就如何做好持续改进进行有益的探索。