Insurance premiums under demand constraints

Abstract

An alternative approach to the variance principle of premium determination is explored. The approach rationalises the principle in terms of an economic theory and formalises the notion that loadings in addition to the ‘fair’ premium are related to competition and expenses.     

Towards a geography of tourism

This paper traces the development of geographical interest in tourism during the past half century and examines the range and scope of the geography of tourism. The available literature is reviewed and suggestions are made regarding possible research aveneus and theoretical developments. Six major areas of interest are identified: spatial aspects of supply, spatial aspects of demand, the geography of resorts, patterns of movements and flows, the impact of tourism, and models of tourist space. Through an emphasis on spatial interaction an attempt is made to provide some cohesion and synthesis for this body of knowledge which constitutes the basis of the geography of tourism.     

Influence Allocation Methods in Group Decision Support Systems

Influence allocation processes are voting and opinion aggregating methods that allow members to distribute some or all of their decision making influence to others in the group in order to exploit not only the group's knowledge of the alternatives, but its knowledge of itself. Only with the common use of group decision support systems (GDSS) has their use become practical. In this paper we reconsider SPAN, an influence allocation process introduced by MacKinnon (1966a). Experimental comparison shows SPAN to be significantly better at selecting a correct option from a set of options than two common voting methods. An alternative influence allocation process that we call RCON (Rational Consensus), is based on a weighting method proposed by DeGroot (1974) and has been explicated as a normative standard for combining opinion by Lehrer and Wagner (1981). The judgmental inputs to SPAN would appear to be logically related to those for RCON. Submitting the SPAN inputs from the experiment, transformed in this logical way, to the RCON process results in somewhat better performance than with SPAN. However, evidence indicated that the two methods are conceptually and psychologically sufficiently different that an experimental comparison is needed between them.     

Creating a quantum design schema: Integrating extra-rational and rational learning processes

The traditional, linear, rational models of designing have over-simplified a complex process; unfortunately, this simplification misrepresents reality. Students need to become aware of the ambiguous nature of a complex process such as designing just as they need to be introduced to the ambiguous nature of living in a modern world. The challenge is to develop a design process to be used as a teaching/learning strategy that is non-linear, that integrates processes from the rational and extra-rational levels of the mind and which captures the ambiguous nature of the design process. Using the counter-intuitive behaviour that exists in quantum theory as an analogy seems best to describe the true nature of designing.Dr. Tom Puk is Coordinator of Continuing Teacher Education, Faculty of Education, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada. He teaches in preservice, continuing education and graduate programs, and has conducted major research for Ontario Ministry of Education on Technology Education and Design Processes in 1991; this research was used to develop two provincial curriculum guidelines for all schools in Ontario. Email: tpuk@sky.LakeheadU.CA     

Asymptotically optimal estimation of smooth functionals for interval censoring, part 2

Estimation in the interval censoring model is considered. A class of smooth functionals is introduced, of which the mean is an example. We consider case 2, with two observation times for each unobservable event time, in the situation that the observation times cannot become arbitrarily close to each other. It is proved that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the functional asymptotically reaches the information lower bound.     

Processes with volatility-induced stationarity: an application for interest rates

In this paper we propose a refinement of the existing definition of volatility-induced stationarity that allows us to distinguish between processes with drift and diffusion induced stationarity and processes with pure volatility-induced stationarity. We also propose a classification of stationary processes with volatility-induced stationarity according to the volatility that is needed to inject stationarity. Processes with volatility-induced stationarity are potentially applicable to interest rate time-series since, as has been acknowledged, mean-reversion effects occur mainly in periods of high volatility. As such, we provide evidence that the logarithm of the Fed funds rate can be modelled as a local martingale with volatility-induced stationarity.     

A Multi-Agent View of Strategic Planning Using Group Support Systems and Artificial Intelligence

The strategic planning process is dynamic and complex. Including a Group Support System (GSS) in the problem-solving process can improve the content quality of the strategic plan by allowing increased participation by more members of the organization. However, it can also add to the complexity of the problem by increasing the quantity of textual information that can result from group activity. Added complexity increases cognitive overload and frustrations of those participants negotiating the contents of the strategic plan. This article takes a multi-agent view of the strategic planning process. It considers group participants as multiple agents concerned with the content quality of the strategic plan. The facilitator agent is responsible for guiding groups in the strategic plan construction process as well as for solving process problems such as cognitive overload. We introduce an AI Concept Categorizer agent, a software tool that supports the facilitator in addressing the process problem of cognitive overload associated with convergent group activities by synthesizing group textual output into conceptual clusters. The implementation of this tool reduces frustrations which groups encounter in the process of classifying textual output and provides more time for discussion of the concepts themselves. Because of the large amount of convergent activity necessary for strategic planning, the addition of the AI Concept Categorizer to the strategic planning process should increase the quality of the strategic plan and the buy-in of the participants in the strategic planning process.     

Virtual forms for the organization of production: A comparative analysis

In the present competitive environment, excellence in each phase of the productive process and flexibility are critical requirements in every business. Virtual enterprises have been proposed as an inter-organizational model characterized by both strong incentives to suppliers’ performance and high flexibility. Nonetheless, virtual enterprises are not ubiquitous as some suggest they should be. This paper compares virtual enterprises with other models for the organization of production: Markets, vertically integrated firms and networks. We formulate hypotheses that virtual enterprises are suitable for firms producing complex, modular products, with frequent changes in components, but low knowledge specificity. Virtual enterprises are suitable for a group of industries that is limited, but of growing importance.     

Marketing metrics' usage: Its predictors and implications for customer relationship management

This research aims to determine the conditions that foster use of marketing metrics in customer relationship management (CRM) and identify the organizational factors that strengthen/weaken the impact of usage of marketing metrics on CRM performance. Based on the customer value-based theory of the firm and the contingency perspective, a research framework was developed to shed light on the predictor roles of customer value-based organizational culture and processes in determining usage of marketing metrics, and foster an understanding of the moderating roles of marketing-supply chain conflict, and innovative value proposition on the marketing metric-performance relationships. Empirical evidence from a sample of 209 business firms confirmed the main effect that customer value-based organizational culture and processes support a firm's use of marketing metrics that in turn enhance its CRM performance. Notable moderating effects were also identified. Although marketing-supply chain conflict weakens the impact of marketing metrics usage in achieving superior CRM performance, innovative value proposition strengthens the conversion of marketing-metric-related knowledge into superior CRM performance.