Free trade, factor returns, and factor accumulation

A model of development is studied in which physical capital and unskilled labor are good substitutes, and skilled labor is complementary to the resulting aggregate. Growth in a closed economy is compared with two open regimes. Inflows of physical capital only reduce the interest rate and raise both wage rates. The skilled wage rises more sharply, however, increasing the skill premium and accelerating human capital accumulation. Full integration with a larger and more developed neighbor also reduces the interest rate and raises both wage rates, but in this case the skill premium falls and human capital accumulation changes very little.     

Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates

Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularlyin the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theoryof uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks aboutthe direction he thought such a theory should take. I arguethat some modern innovations in the theory of probability allowus to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights.If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carryits weight in Keynes's arguments. This does not mean that theconclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; intheir best formulation they may succeed with merely an appealto risk.     

专用性人力资本与三项贴水关联性研究

人力资本按专用性程度分为专用性人力资本、普通专用性人力资本和非专用性人力资本,员工的贴水可以分为收入贴水、品牌（信誉）贴水和情感贴水。通过揭示专用性人力资本和三项贴水的内在关联性,将两者进行深化匹配,在此基础上有助于给出组织运行机制的合理设计。     

Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from innovation

 Previous research has shown that the distribution of profit outcomes from technological innovations is highly skew. This paper builds upon those detailed findings to ask: what stochastic processes can plausibly be inferred to have generated the observed distributions? After reviewing the evidence, this paper reports on several stochastic model simulations, including a pure Gibrat random walk with monthly changes approximating those observed for high-technology startup company stocks and a more richly specified model blending internal and external market uncertainties. The most highly specified simulations suggest that the set of profit potentials tapped by innovators is itself skew-distributed and that the number of entrants into innovation races is more likely to be independent of market size than stochastically dependent upon it.     

不确定性与早期劳动合同 --契约理论的一个新发展

在劳动力市场上 ,劳动者和厂商未来的生产率都具有不确定性。早期劳动合同或签约由于一方面可以保证劳动者被排除在劳动力市场之外 ,同时也保证了厂商被排除在事后职位市场的风险之外 ,因而厂商和劳动者具有签订早期劳动合同的激励。尽管早期劳动合同或签约存在成本 ,但只要事前利益超过事后无效率的损失 ,那么早期劳动合同或签约就会发生。对于那些不能获得完全市场保险的人来说 ,签约是一种帕累托最优。早期劳动合同或签约是市场失灵的一种证明 ,早期劳动合同是一种不完全合同 ,也是一种非正式合同 ,它是对契约理论的一个发展。     

Loan price modelling for local governments using risk premium analysis

Previous studies have highlighted the question of government loan interest as one of great current importance. Government borrowing levels are high, and reducing interest payments would generate savings to meet other spending needs and/or to lower taxation, thus supporting the sustainability of public finances. However, no previous study has presented a method for a local government to calculate its own credit risk and thus be in a position to negotiate lower interest rates on its borrowing. This article defines a financial model that enables local governments to estimate the interest rate payable on a bank loan, based on their credit risk premium, in accordance with the Basel II rules and the findings of our empirical study of large local governments.     

Evaluation periods and asset prices: Myopic loss aversion at the financial marketplace

Examining myopic loss aversion (MLA [Benartzi, S., Thaler, R., 1995. Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 73–92]) in real financial markets has several merits: in repeated situations investors may learn from each other, aggregate market prices may eliminate individual violations of expected utility, and individuals may decide differently in real situations than in laboratories. We utilize a special feature at the Tel Aviv stock exchange (TASE): occasional shifts of securities from daily to weekly trading. If investors’ decisions are influenced by trading frequency manipulation, then returns should be predictably affected. MLA results in a negative relation between risk aversion and the length of the evaluation period. Thus, the longer the evaluation period is, the lower the expected return is. This intuition also suggests reduced sensitivity to economic events in longer evaluation periods. We find strong support for MLA in the marketplace when testing expected return, as well as return sensitivity.