Volatility in the knowledge economy

Summary. We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and contracting faster in a downswing. To test this hypothesis we postulate a general equilibrium model with two sectors: one with increasing returns that are external to the firm and endogenously determined - the knowledge sector - and the other with constant returns to scale. We introduce a new measure of volatility of output, a real beta, and derive a resolving equation, from which we prove that the increasing return sectors exhibit more volatility then other sectors. We validate the main results on US macro economic data of real GDP by industry (2-3 digits SIC codes) of the 1977-2001 period, and provide policy conclusions.Received: 18 March 2002, Revised: 16 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D5, D58, E10, L50, L52, O38, O51.Correspondence to: Graciela Chichilnisky     

关系取向对员工满意影响的实证研究

在现有文献中,有关关系取向对员工满意影响的研究尚属空白.(1)通过15位服务人员的深度访谈,对关系取向的内涵进行定性探索;(2)预调查对量表的信度和效度进行评价并修改部分问项;(3)对天津连锁药店的86位店长和217位销售人员的正式问卷调查表明:关系取向、关系交换与员工满意正相关;个体文化差异对关系交换有负向影响,而对关系取向有正向影响.研究结果可以指导经理们提高上下级关系管理的有效性.     

Economic progress and skill obsolescence with network effects

Summary. We construct an OLG model with network effects to examine skill obsolescence when individuals can choose technological vintages. In the absence of transfer payments, some regions of the parameter space have unique stationary equilibria, others have unique cyclical equilibria, and others have multiple stationary equilibria. All equilibria are Pareto efficient. However, rat race equilibria can exist in which all agents currently alive prefer a slower rate of progress than occurs in equilibrium. When contemporaneous transfers are allowed, equilibria are unique everywhere, but a cycle still exists, and a rat race can still arise in equilibrium. Allowing intertemporal transfers (debt) ensures that all equilibria are stationary. In the relevant parameter range, the introduction of debt can eliminate cycles and increase the long-run growth rate. No rat race equilibria exist when debt is allowed.Received: 3 January 2002, Revised: 3 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: 041, J24, O33. Correspondence to: Ian P. KingEarly versions of this paper were presented at the West Coast Macro Workshop, the Mid-West Macro Meetings, the Canadian Macroeconomics Study Group Meetings, and the Society for Economic Dynamics Meetings. We would like to thank V. V. Chari, Merwan Engineer, Don Ferguson, John Hillas, John Knowles, Dan Peled, Dan Usher, Linda Welling and Julian Wright for helpful comments. We are especially grateful to an anonymous referee for some very useful and substantive comments.     

Assessing the impact of patent infringement on new product sales

In order to assess the impact of patent infringement on the growth of a new product, a model is developed through the intervention model development processes of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao. Physical interpretations of model parameters and determination of associated damages suggest that the model can provide a sound basis for analyzing patent infringement disputes.     

The convergence of least squares learning in stochastic temporary equilibrium models

Summary. This paper provides conditions for the almost sure convergence of the least squares learning rule in a stochastic temporary equilibrium model, where regressions are performed on the past values of the endogenous state variable. In contrast to earlier studies, (Evans and Honkapohja, 1998; Marcent and Sargent, 1989), which were local analyses, the dynamics are studied from a global viewpoint, which allows one to obtain an almost sure convergence result without employing projection facilities. Received: April 7, 2001; revised version: September 5, 2001     

地洼学说基本理论的形成与发展

地洼学说是由著名地质学家陈国达教授创立的。从创立至今,经过我国及其他一些国家地质工作者的长期辛勤劳动,使之日臻完善,并形成了在国内外有影响的地质科学理论。近35年的实践证明,这一理论对生产实践具有重要的指导作用。地洼学说的形成,是陈国达教授应用科学的思想方法在地质科学道路上大胆创新、不断探索的结果。地质工作所涉及的研究领域非常广泛而复杂,它更需要科学的、系统的理论来指导。我们学习和研究地洼学说的形成过程和创新精神,除了它的应用价值外,其理论意义特别是科学的思想方法也是值得我们很好学习和借鉴的。     

嘉兴农村社会阶层分化对基层民主政治建设的影响

改革开放以来，嘉兴农村社会阶层发生很大的变化，出现了许多新的阶层。这对促进农村政治民主化的发展、完善目前正在实施的村民自治制度具有重要的作用。但应当看到目前嘉兴农村基层民主建设尚存在一些问题，这些问题的存在与农村阶层分化不到位，以及群体性和组织性不强有着直接的关系。正确认识农村社会结构变化的规律，不断增强它的群体性和组织程度，对促进农村政治发展的民主化具有重要意义。     

关于提高课堂教学质量的几点体会

作者根据多年的教学实践和经验得出:提高课堂教学质量的关键是科学合理地选取教学内容;改进教学方法,突出重点、分解难点;注重教师与学生互动,调动学生的积极性,提高听课率。     

基于 ASP.NET技术的网络课程的实现

本文通过对网络课程实现的关键技术的分析,提出基于Microsoft.Net平台的ASP.NET技术的网络课程的实现方法,并以实际开发的计算机《操作系统网络教学系统》为实例,阐述了功能模块的设计和实现的关键技术。     

构建应用型的证券投资专业人才培养体系

徐州工程学院是教育部2005年批准成立应用型本科院校,该校积极探索与创新,努力构建应用型专业人才培养体系。各专业在教改模型及培养目标的确定、课程体系改革措施、教学内容与教学方法的改革、实训基地的建设、产学研结合、师资队伍建设、学生就业等方面进行了积极的探索,努力形成培养应用专业人才培养体系。本文重点谈构建应用型的证券投资专业人才培养体系