BN周期成分的符号与我国GDP的真实周期

本文从理论上证明了以下的定理：当度量序列持久性的方差比大于1时,BN周期成分的符号应予反号,否则,不予反号。为验证定理,我们设计Monter-Carlo仿真实验,其结果也证实了理论定理。本文的理论结论和仿真结果,第一次从持久性的角度解释了文献中的“周期之谜”。在此基础上,我们应用BN周期分解方法和本文的理论结果,分解我国GDP的BN周期。结果显示,由于我国GDP的方差比为1.97,所以周期成分的符号应反号,由此形成我国GDP的真实周期。样本期内（2000Q2-2011Q4）我国共经历了六轮周期,这六轮周期不仅与我国实际经济增长的波动基本一致,而且与我国所遭遇的主要冲击相吻合;我国经济增长的周期具有波动幅度较大、持续时间又存在明显差异的特征。基于这些特征,本文认为,减弱我国经济增长的周期性波动,应成为宏观调控的重要内容。     

中国经济发展省际差距成因的双层挖掘分析

循着要素规模、质量和效率三位一体的逻辑,从两个层次挖掘区域之间经济差距形成及其变迁的驱动因素,引入可导性对数方差分解法的基本原理,构造了区域间经济差距形成及其变迁的驱动因素贡献的双层分解模型,并利用中国31个省份2005-2012年数据进行实证分析。结果表明,省际经济差距形成和绝对差距扩大的首要推动力是全要素生产率差距,人均资本差距也起到了较大的贡献作用;在全要素生产率差距贡献中,综合效率差距提供了主导性的正向支持,高级人力资本占比差距也具有较大的推动作用,而设备性资本占比差距起到显著的抑制作用。     

房地产市场和消费市场对储蓄分流效应的实证研究

近年来储蓄存款一直快速增长,虽然最近证券市场的繁荣暂时对储蓄存款形成了较为显著的分流作用,但是,一旦证券市场趋势逆转,流向证券市场的储蓄资金很快就会回流.因此,研究储蓄存款在证券市场之外的分流具有重要意义.消费市场交易和房地产市场交易虽然没有很强的储蓄分流效应,但是具有长期影响.尤其是房地产市场的影响,更值得关注.     

金融监管对互联网金融创新的风险与发展影响研究

通过系统梳理互联网金融监管政策以及互联网金融创新的发展现状,构建方差分析模型实证检验监管政策的影响得出：首先,互联网金融监管政策的实施有效遏制了互联网金融企业数量的增长,但未能有效降低互联网金融创新的风险。其次,监管政策显著降低了互联网贷款利率和提高了互联网贷款规模,有力提高了互联网金融创新服务实体经济的能力和水平。因此应进一步完善互联网金融监管体系,在促进互联网金融创新健康发展的同时降低金融风险事件的发生。     

Pricing variance and volatility swaps in a stochastic volatility model with regime switching: discrete observations case

This study presents a set of closed-form exact solutions for pricing discretely sampled variance swaps and volatility swaps, based on the Heston stochastic volatility model with regime switching. In comparison with all the previous studies in the literature, this research, which obtains closed-form exact solutions for variance and volatility swaps with discrete sampling times, serves several purposes. (1) It verifies the degree of validity of Elliott et al.'s [Appl. Math. Finance, 2007, 14(1), 41–62] continuous-sampling-time approximation for variance and volatility swaps of relatively short sampling periods. (2) It examines the effect of ignoring regime switching on pricing variance and volatility swaps. (3) It contributes to bridging the gap between Zhu and Lian's [Math. Finance, 2011, 21(2), 233–256] approach and Elliott et al.'s framework. (4) Finally, it presents a semi-Monte-Carlo simulation for the pricing of other important realized variance based derivatives.     

Openness and growth: an interpretation of empirical evidence from East Asian countries

This study investigates the effect of openness on economic growth for rapidly growing economies in East Asia in which rapid growth has been accompanied by a persistent openness to world trade. The framework of analysis is a five-variable vector autoregressive model that consists of real output, money supply, real government spending, foreign price shocks, and openness measures. The results do not strongly support the 'new' growth theories in which increasing openness affects long-run growth. For most countries in the sample, fiscal policy shocks as well as foreign price shocks have greater impacts on economic growth than does the openness shock. The results are generally consistent with the view that the role of the government is critical for growth among the East Asian economies.     

工科院校数学教师教学质量评价指标及方法

建立和完善有效的教学质量监控与评价指标体系,是提高教学质量的重要保证,是培养适合社会需求的高级人才的重要途径,是学校改革发展的需要。     

A mixed blessing of lifespan heterogeneity

Human mortality data reveal that life expectancy in industrialized countries has been converging to a common value. Yet, significant variations in the distributions of adult life-table ages at death among some developed countries have also been observed. This paper, largely motivated by Japan’s mortality data, presents a general equilibrium, overlapping-generations model that assesses the welfare effects of the mean-preserving declines in the variance of the distribution of adult ages at death. Our quantitative exercise reveals that for a given value of the economy-wide life expectancy, the individual welfare effects due to switching from high to low-variance steady states are length of life-dependent, quite sensitive to the average economy-wide retirement age, and strongly influenced by associated changes in the labor supply, factor prices, and lifetime earnings.     

利用样本轮换设计降低调查中的无回答影响

调查中无回答的存在往往是形成一种系统性误差的主要原因。它会造成统计分析结果产生偏差。文章主要讨论如何利用样本轮换技术有效地降低无回答带来的不良影响,从而提高统计估计的精度和分析结果的可靠性。     

Forecasting variance using stochastic volatility and GARCH

This paper estimates the conditional variance of daily Swedish OMX-index returns with stochastic volatility (SV) models and GARCH models and evaluates the in-sample performance as well as the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the models. Asymmetric as well as weekend/holiday effects are allowed for in the variance, and the assumption that errors are Gaussian is released. Evidence is found of a leverage effect and of higher variance during weekends. In both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons SV models outperform GARCH models. However, while asymmetry, weekend/holiday effects and non-Gaussian errors are important for the in-sample fit, it is found that these factors do not contribute to enhancing the forecasting ability of the SV models.