Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

基于成熟度模型的化工物流业(CL-CMM)研究

借鉴软件能力成熟度模型（CMM）,构建了化工物流业成熟度模型（CL-CMM）。将物流企业成熟度分为初始期、成长期、成熟期、成熟巩固期、成熟创新期;从分析各个等级的关键过程,为化工物流业发展提供决策依据。并用成熟度曲线表示了化工物流业发展所经历的过程。     

模型算法在企业的场址选择及其内部设施的平面布置中的应用

企业的场址选择及其内部设施的平面布置形式，对于企业的运输费用具有举足轻重的作用。本文对企业和内部设施的布置进行模型设计，并通过层次分析法对场址选择方案进行比选．采用对目标函数的优化对企业内部设施的平面布置形式进行优化。     

传统大型企业研发项目管理模式分析

文章以一著名有色企业研发项目管理为例来分析传统大型企业研发项目管理模式,总结出研发项目管理模式的特点,即分散布局、意向指令与多头管理相结合。     

工程施工机械设备租买决策模型与准则

施工企业可以通过租赁或购买获取工程施工设备，采取何种方式应综合考虑各方案的经济合理性，风险大小，便捷和省时等，重点论述了工程施工机械设备租买决策的数学模型和相关决策准则，可供工程承包公司进行施工设备租买决策时参考。     

电子商务环境下我国第三方物流企业运作模式分析

在当今电子商务高速发展的环境下，第三方物流出现信息化、自动化、联盟化、网络化、个性化和柔性化的趋势。而建立一种与之相适应的新型第三方物流模式成了中国物流企业需要解决的问题。论文分析了电子商务对第三方物流的影响及我国第三方物流发展现状，探讨性提出了电子商务环境下我国第三方物流运作的基本模式及操作建议。     

A sequential model for cracking down on street markets for illicit drugs

This paper develops a sequential decision-making model for assisting law enforcement officials in allocating resources during a crackdown operation on illicit drug markets. The sequential crackdown model (SCM) considers a probabilistic framework, where the probability of incarceration of a dealer and the probability of dealing are modeled as a function of the size of a drug market, crackdown enforcement level, drug dealer's financial hardship, and other market characteristics.The model was developed and tested in consultation with enforcement officials from Philadelphia, PA and Camden, NJ. We present a detailed, step-by-step implementation scheme for updating parameters on each day of the crackdown. Parameter estimation along with examples of model usage is provided. Through these examples, we illustrate how the SCM could be helpful in understanding the response of illicit drug markets to various enforcement strategies. We further show conditions under which an alternating crackdown policy (referred to as a crackdown-backoff) or a consistent use of maximum possible enforcement would be optimal strategies for managing a drug crackdown operation. Within the context of the model and parameter estimates, we show that a much quicker and less costly collapse could be implemented if the available enforcement resources are increased. Finally, the model provides possible conditions under which a crackdown operation would be unsuccessful in eliminating a drug market.     

一种产品生产规划模型

在对供应链中运输、库存、产品生产计划分析的 基础上,提出了一种解决厂家产品生产规划的混合整数规划 模型。     

长期筹资科学化的初步探索--构建最佳资本结构模型

助计算机用定量方法快速有效的解决长期筹资决策问题是知识经济时代对企业的必然要求。最佳资本结构模型用计算机运筹学的方法来决策不同筹资方式的最优筹资额，以帮助企业实现长期筹资目标同时也是财务管理最终目标——企业价值最大化。