International trade,risk taking and welfare

This paper shows that the gains from opening up to international trade are smaller when firms do not fully internalize downward risk. I develop a general equilibrium model with two key assumptions. First, when faced with adverse productivity shocks, employers can lay off workers without fully paying the social costs of their layoff decisions, a common feature of many institutions. Second, when opening to international trade, the elasticity of demand perceived by an industry increases. In this setup, I show that international trade induces firms to take more risk and (i) raises the equilibrium unemployment rate, (ii) increases the volatility of sectoral sales and (iii) increases welfare proportionately less than in the absence of the externality. Inducing firms to internalize the costs of layoff (Blanchard and Tirole, 2003) therefore appears even more important in a globalized world.     

How to make Dupire’s local volatility work with jumps

There are several (mathematical) reasons why Dupire’s formula fails in the non-diffusion setting. And yet, in practice, ad-hoc preconditioning of the option data works reasonably well. In this note, we attempt to explain why. In particular, we propose a regularization procedure of the option data so that Dupire’s local vol diffusion process recreates the correct option prices, even in manifest presence of jumps.     

北京市社会保障运行指标分析

北京市社会保障事业发展状况如何,为社会各界所关注。通过建立社会保障评价指标体系,测算出北京市社会保障发展的相关评价数据。研究表明,北京市社会保障事业取得显著成就,也存在一些需要重视解决的问题,应采取相应措施加以应对。     

Reexamining the time-varying volatility spillover effects: A Markov switching causality approach

This paper intends to examine the volatility spillover effect between selective developed markets including U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan and Hong Kong over the sample period from 1996 to 2011. We introduce a Markov switching causality method to model the potential instability of volatility spillover relationships over market tranquil or turmoil periods. This method is more flexible as no prior information on the changing points or size of sample window is needed. From the empirical results, we find the evidence of the existence of spillover effects among most markets, and the bilateral volatility spillover effects are more prominent over turmoil or crisis episodes, especially during Asia crisis and subprime mortgage crisis periods. Moreover, the distinct role of each market is also investigated.     

The determinants of hotel room rates: Another visit with Singapore's data

In this research note, volatility clustering modeling framework is used to examine the determinants of hotel room rates in Singapore. Using monthly data from January 1985 to June 2009, GARCH-M(1, 1) is identified as the appropriate model used to capture volatility clustering. The results suggest that total inbound tourists and economic performance have positive effects on hotel room rates. The main findings are (a) the occurrences of terrorist activities in the neighboring countries have negative impacts and (b) the volatility of hotel room rates has a positive effect, on hotel room rates.     

Effect of diversification on firm performance: Application of the entropy measure

This study investigated the effects of diversification on firm performance in the restaurant industry. In prior studies, the theoretical rationales and empirical results appeared to contradict each other. These contradictory results may be due to factors such as industry-specific characteristics or a linear understanding of the relationship between diversification strategies and firm performance. Thus, this study suggested a non-linear hypothesis based on the costs and benefits of diversification strategies with businesses categorized based on their level of diversification. The results of this study showed that restaurant firms do not benefit from a low level of related diversification. This study also found that when restaurant firms are involved in both related and unrelated businesses, the optimal mixed ratio of diversification is approximately half and half. More detailed results, as well as academic and practical implications, are discussed in this paper.     

我国企业使用过程能力指数情况调查与分析

文章对我国企业使用过程能力指数情况进行了问卷调查。结果显示，我国企业过程能力指数应用中存在的主要问题有：首先，计算过程能力指数的企业不多，且分布不平衡；其次，过程能力指数的可信度不高；再次，不考虑样本的随机性，简单地根据基于样本数据计算的点估计值就给过程的绩效下定论。这些问题的存在，为学者的相关研究提供了视角，也为企业、培训机构、行业协会、有关管理部门开展与过程能力指数有关的活动提供了参考依据。     

Volatility of capital flows and financial liberalization: Do specific flows respond differently?

This paper examines the volatility of capital flows following the liberalization of financial markets. Utilizing a panel data set of overlapping data, the paper focuses on the response of foreign direct investment, portfolio flows, and other debt flows to financial liberalization. The financial liberalization variable comes from the chronology and index developed by Kaminsky and Schmukler [Kaminsky, G.L. and Schmukler, S.L., 2003, Short-run pain, long-run gain: The effects of financial liberalization, IMF Working Paper WP/03/34.]. Different types of capital flows are found to respond differently to financial liberalization. Surprisingly, portfolio flows appear to show little response to capital liberalization while foreign direct investment flows show significant increases in volatility, particularly for the emerging markets considered.