Social norms,cooperation and inequality

This paper analyzes the outcomes that can be supported by social norms in a society of infinitely lived and patient agents that are randomly matched in pairs every period to play a given game. I find that any mutually beneficial outcome can be supported by a self-enforcing social norm under both perfect information and a simple local information system. These Folk Theorem results explain not only how social norms can provide incentives that support cooperation in a community, providing support to the concepts of social capital and corporate culture, but also how they can support inequality and discrimination.I am grateful to David Levine for invaluable guidance and ideas. I also thank Anna Aizer, Hongbin Cai, Walter Cont, Ernesto Dal Bó, Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, Federico Weinschelbaun, William Zame, anonymous referees and seminar participants at Universidad de Buenos Aires, UCLA, Universidad T. Di Tella, Harvard Business School and Stockholm School of Economics for very useful comments and discussions     

Job hopping, earnings dynamics, and industrial agglomeration in the software publishing industry

This paper investigates the implications of industrial clustering for labor mobility and earnings dynamics in one large and increasingly important high-technology sector. Taking advantage of longitudinal employee-employer matched data, I exploit establishment-level variation in agglomeration to explore how clustering in the software publishing industry affects labor market outcomes. The results show that clustering makes it easier for workers to job hop within the sector. Higher earnings levels in more agglomerated areas are partly attributable to sorting across locations among workers and firms in the industry on the basis of observable and unobservable characteristics. Controlling for this heterogeneity, workers in clusters have relatively steep earnings-tenure profiles, accepting lower wages early in their careers in exchange for stronger earnings growth and higher wages later. These findings are consistent with theoretical models in which agglomeration improves labor market coordination and facilitates greater learning and human capital formation.     

关注民生的重要改革——工资、薪金所得减除费用标准提高的意义与影响

在物价水平上涨、财政收入大幅度增加的情况下,政府出于对民生的关注,将个人所得税工资、薪金所得减除费用标准从1600 元提高到2000 元,这进一步推动了我国个人所得税改革的进程。展望改革前景,个人所得税工资、薪金所得减除费用标准应该指数化,与物价水平挂钩,还应该考虑以家庭为单位进行纳税申报。当然,个人所得税制度改革的最终目标,是实行综合和分类相结合的个人所得税制。     

A tale of two Ginis in the US, 1921–2012

Following a methodology by Jantzen and Volpert (2012), we use IRS Adjusted Gross Income data for the US (1921–2012) to estimate two Gini indices representing inequality at the bottom and the top of the income distribution, and to calculate the overall Gini as a function of the parameters underlying the two indices. A steady increase in the overall Gini since the Second World War actually hides two different periods of distributional changes. First, the increase in inequality from the mid 1940s to the late 1970s is driven by rising inequality at the bottom of the income distribution that more than offsets a decrease in inequality at the top. The implication is that middle-income earners gained relative to high-incomes, and especially relative to low-income earners. Second, the rise in the Gini after 1981 is driven by rising inequality at the top. Third, top-driven inequality follows a U-shaped trajectory consistent with Piketty and Saez (2003, 2006). Fourth, the welfare effects of the different distributional changes behind increasing inequality can be evaluated in light of the Lorenz-dominance criterion by Atkinson (1970): we argue that the rise in inequality since 1981 is much more likely to be associated with a social welfare loss net of compensating growth.     

EXTENSIONS TO THE MULTIPLIER DECOMPOSITION APPROACH IN A SAM FRAMEWORK: AN APPLICATION TO VIETNAM

The aim of this paper is to provide an extension of a technique recently introduced by Pyatt and Round (2006) to decompose each element of the ‘global multiplier matrix’ in ‘microscopic detail’ in order to capture the linkages between each household groups’ income and the exogenously injected income of other accounts. The methodology we propose allows dividing the impact of exogenous injections into four different effects: direct-direct effect (D-D); direct-indirect effect (D-I); indirect-direct effect (I-D) and indirect-indirect effect (I-I). Results using the 2000 Vietnamese SAM show that the highest direct effects on the income of household groups are related to exogenous injections into the agricultural sector, while the highest indirect effects result from investing in other agriculture-related sectors such as, for example, food processing. Policy interventions focusing on the agricultural sector and on rural households will thus have the greatest effect on reducing the level of income inequality.     

Inequality of opportunity and income inequality in nine Chinese provinces, 1989–2006

While there is a large and growing body of research describing and analyzing changes in the Chinese income distribution, researchers have paid considerable less attention to inequality of opportunity. The aim of this paper is to contribute to filling this gap in the literature. The two main questions addressed empirically for the first time in a Chinese context are: to what extent are individuals’ incomes and individual income differences due to factors beyond the individual's control (in Roemer's terminology “circumstances”) and to what extent are they due to outcomes of the individual's own choices (“effort”). What is the relationship between income inequality and inequality of opportunity?For this purpose we use data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey collected from nine provinces during the period 1989 to 2006. The CHNS has detailed information about incomes and other factors enabling us to construct a host of circumstance and effort variables for the offspring.We find that China has a substantial degree of inequality of opportunity. Parental income and parents' type of employer explain about two thirds of the total inequality of opportunity. Notably, parental education plays only a minor role implying that parental connections remain important. The results show that the increase in income inequality during the period under study largely mirrors the increase in inequality of opportunity. Thus, increased income inequality does not reflect changes in effort variables, or expressed differently, increased income inequality has not been accompanied by a decrease in inequality of opportunity.     

You are what (and where) you eat: Capturing food away from home in welfare measures

Consumption of food away from home is rapidly growing across the developing world, and will continue to do so as GDP per person grows and food systems evolve. Surprisingly, the majority of household surveys have not kept up with its pace and still collect limited information on it. The implications for poverty and inequality measurement are far from clear, and the direction of the impact cannot be established a priori. This paper exploits rich data on food away from home collected as part of the National Household Survey in Peru, to shed light on the extent to which welfare measures differ depending on whether food away from home is accounted for or not. Peru is a relevant context, with the average Peruvian household spending over a quarter of their food budget on food away from home since 2010. The analysis indicates that failure to account for this consumption has important implications for poverty and inequality measures as well as the understanding of who the poor are. First, accounting for food away from home results in extreme poverty rates that are 18 percent higher and moderate poverty rates that are 16 percent lower. These results are also consistent, in fact more pronounced, with poverty gap and severity measures. Second, consumption inequality measured by the Gini coefficient decreases by 1.3 points when food away from home is included – a significant reduction. Finally, the inclusion of food away from home results in a reclassification of households across poor/non-poor status – 20 percent of the poor are different, resulting in small but significant differences in the profile of the poor in dimensions such as demographics, education, and labor market characteristics. Taken together, the results indicate that a serious rethinking of how to deal with the consumption of food away from home in measuring well-being is urgently needed to properly estimate and understand poverty around the world.     

Does inequality help in forecasting equity premium in a panel of G7 countries?

This paper investigates whether the post-tax and transfer growth rate in the Gini index can help in forecasting the equity premium in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom (UK), and United States (US)). To this end, we use a panel data-based predictive framework, which controls for heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, persistence and endogeneity. When we analyze the annual out-of-sample period of 1990–2011, given an in-sample period of 1967–1989, our results show that: (a) Time series based predictive regression models fail to beat the benchmark of historical average, except for Italy; and, (b) the panel data models beat the benchmark in a statistically significant fashion for all the seven countries. Further, our results highlight the importance of pooling information when trying to forecast excess stock returns based on a measure of inequality.     

Earnings Mobility during the Transition: The Case of Hungary

This paper tests the hypothesis that the economic transition if associated with earnings mobility that is higher than in mature market economies, and which offsets the increase in earnings inequality. It uses the Hungarian Household Panel Survey for the period 1992-1997. The paper finds that indeed five-year earnings mobility in Hungary in the early years of the transition was significantly higher than in OECD countries. However, there are sings that the mobility rate has begun to decline. The pattern of earnings mobility had a significant equalizing effect: low earners were raised up while high earners were leveled down. However, mobility was taking place against a backdrop of the fall in real wages and therefore in most cases it implied the worsening of the absolute earnings status. Unfortunately, mobility does not help much low-paid workers. In contrast to most OECD countries, in Hungary low-paid workers have little chances to move up the earnings ladder. Low-paid jobs tend to be a permanent trap rather than a stepping stone to better paid employment.     

CROSS‐COUNTRY RANKINGS IN INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY: A COMPARISON OF APPROACHES FROM ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY

Abstract This paper summarizes research on the relative level of intergenerational mobility – whether classified by income, education or social class. The literatures on education and income mobility reveal a similar ranking with South America, other developing nations, southern European countries and France tending to have rather limited mobility although the Nordic countries exhibit strong mobility. Estimates of mobility based on social class point to rather different patterns, and we demonstrate that these differences are most likely generated by intergenerational earnings persistence within social classes. The second part of the paper looks for explanations for the differences in earnings and education persistence and finds that mobility is negatively correlated with inequality and the return to education but positively correlated with a nation's education spending.