试探投资者-东道国争端解决中的上诉机制

美国对外签订的《自由贸易协定》和ICSID“中心”秘书处提出的有关创立上诉机制的建议对传统的“一审终审制”提出挑战。建立上诉机制有益于保持裁决的一致性、纠正适用法律错误和可能的严重事实错误以及弥补目前裁决审查机制的不足,但也存在与仲裁终局性原则相矛盾、增加待解决案件的数量以及导致争端解决制度政治化的缺限。少数发达国家和ICISD率先尝试建立国际投资争端上诉机制的行为反映了发达国家力图提升东道国对外资保护的强度;鉴于此,发展中国家应当提高警惕并采取因应之策。     

基于DT-CWT、粗糙集和神经网络的轴承智能诊断

对一种滚动轴承的智能故障诊断方法进行了研究,包括对偶树复小波变换(DT-CWT)特征提取、用粗糙集理论进行数据约简和神经网络进行模式识别。利用DT-CWT的平移不变性、粗糙集的数据约简以及神经网络的自动识别功能,达到尽量减少人工诊断的效果。理论和实际信号的研究表明:该智能诊断过程能初步达到在线自动诊断的目的。     

从语篇的角度探讨英语阅读教学

如何提高英语阅读教学的水平一直是一个关注的焦点。个体读者的阅读水平千差万别，处于不同水平层面，那么阅读活动本身是否也可分为不同的层面？提高英语阅读能力的突破口又在哪里？针对这些问题。可从语篇理论的角度出发，通过宏观上剖析英文篇章结构及语篇衔接连贯的方式和手段，探讨妨碍学习者阅读水平提升的原因，找出应对措施，以期作为教学的参考。     

Long memory in the high frequency cryptocurrency markets using fractal connectivity analysis: The impact of COVID-19

In this paper, we study the long memory behavior of the hourly cryptocurrency returns during the COVID-19 pandemic period. Initially, we apply different tests against the spurious long memory, with the results indicating the presence of true long memory for most cryptocurrencies. Yet, using the multivariate test, the series are found to be contaminated by level shifts or smooth trends. Then, we adopt the wavelet-based multivariate long memory approach suggested by Achard and Gannaz (2016) to model their long memory connectivity. The findings indicate a change in persistence for all series during the sample period. The fractal connectivity clustering indicates a similarity among Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC), Monero (XMR), Bitcoin (BTC), and EOC token (EOS), while Stellar (XLM) is clustered away from the remaining series, indicating the absence of any interdependence with other crypto returns. Overall, shocks arising from COVID-19 crisis have led to changes in long-run correlation structure.     

Land allocation to meet sectoral goals in Indonesia—An analysis of policy coherence

Land is a scarce resource affecting the implementation of many sectoral policies. In Indonesia, the expansion of palm oil plantations has led to non-sustainable land use practices in past years, particularly deforestation. More recently, the government has set ambitious targets for the adoption of biodiesel which will require expansion of oil palm plantations, thus putting further pressure on land. Meanwhile, the need to guarantee food supply, forest conservation and climate change mitigation also imply challenges when it comes to land allocation and use. This paper examines the role that land plays in the implementation of sectoral policies in Indonesia, exploring the availability of land to satisfy the multiple goals defined in national policies. We explore land competition resulting from allocations made in official policy documents starting with biofuel policy. The analysis of policy goals and coherence when it comes to land allocation is made in relation to agriculture, climate and forestry policies. We conclude that adjustments need to be made in the policies to avoid overlappings and misinterpretations when it comes to land allocation. The area made available for meeting each sectoral policy goal when taking into account cross sectoral interactions is: 14.2 Mha for agriculture, 43 Mha for climate mitigation measures, 9.2 Mha for forestry, and 20.9 Mha for biofuels. A more uniform land classification and development of a common reference database will increase transparency on land allocation and use, and help to monitor land use change, ultimately supporting the achievement of multiple national goals.     

Can crude oil drive the co-movement in the international stock market? Evidence from partial wavelet coherence analysis

In this paper, we employ partial- and multiple-wavelet coherence analyses to examine co-movement between international stock markets by considering the influence of crude oil in a time domain perspective. Overall, we find that crude oil is a major factor driving co-movement between international stock markets in the median and long term. However, when considering the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries differently, we still find that crude oil is a driver for interdependence between oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. In contrast, the crude oil has relative lower impact on the co-movement in oil-importing or in oil-exporting countries, which indicates its co-movement is caused by other factors. In addition, Gulf Cooperation Council stock market may lead the stock markets of oil-importing countries in the long term. Our empirical results provide meaningful information for investors and policymakers.     

Leverage versus volatility: Evidence from the capital structure of European firms

The impact of leverage on financial market stability and the relationship with the real economy is a key concern among researchers. This paper makes an initial attempt to investigate the relationship between a firm’s leverage, return and share price volatility from an Islamic finance perspective and capital structure theory. A multi-country dynamic panel framework and the mean-variance efficient frontier are applied to 320 sample firms from eight European countries, divided into portfolios of low and high debt using the shari’ah screening threshold of 33%. We find that the firm’s return and volatility change with changes in the capital structure. Islamic-compliant stocks show, in most cases, less volatility than non-compliant stocks but are no different in terms of return. Finally, our results tend to imply a case for limiting debt beyond certain levels.     

Co-movement of ASEAN stock markets: New evidence from wavelet and VMD-based copula tests

This paper aims to study the co-movement and the volatility fluctuation between stock markets in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries from a new perspective. The analyses also delve more deeply into the effect of ASEAN trading link establishment on the short-term interdependency. By applying three-dimensional continuous wavelet transform (CWT) on daily returns of stock markets for the period 2009 to 2016, the interdependence level and lag-lead relationship among ASEAN trading link participants are estimated. The degree of interdependence in ASEAN stock markets is found to be stronger in the short term, especially following particular external shocks. A Variational Modes Decomposition (VMD)-based copula estimation shows that the effect of economic shock – in our case, ASEAN trading link establishment – on the stock markets’ level of comovement is only temporary and will progressively diminish within approximately two years. Only Indonesia and Malaysia display strong fundamental linkages between each other. Both the CWT and Copula methods consistently show that Vietnam (Indonesia) has the lowest (highest) interdependence with the rest of ASEAN trading link participants, as opposed to previous empirical evidence obtained from conventional methods. Investors who want to construct optimal portfolios and policymakers who aim to make effective macroeconomic policies should take these findings into account.     

A comparative study of exchange rates and order flow based on wavelet transform coherence and cross wavelet transform

Understanding the relationship and behavior of microstructures and exchange rates is an essential discussion for global foreign exchange investors. There are numerous research works regarding the linkage between order flow and exchange rates, yet the exact relationship between the order flow and the market price that indicates whether participants have an impact on the market trend remains undefined. This paper investigates the empirical association and behavior of order flow and the exchange rate movements within the time-frequency space, on three popular currency pairs, using the cross wavelet transform and wavelet transform coherency. The results indicate that order flow has a strong negative correlation and is the leader variable of the exchange rate. A predictor using order flow as an input variable was implemented to forecast the exchange rate direction using the sample data and out-of-sample data. This methodology, which performs with high accuracy and very low drawdown, could be a suitable tool for portfolio managers and forex participants during their trading activities.     

Multiscale stock-bond correlation: Implications for risk management

This paper examines the multiscale return correlation between the stocks and government bonds of different maturities returns in 25 countries. The analysis reveals that developed markets correlations are generally negative at the first time-scale and move in a positive direction at higher scales. This contrasts with emerging markets, where the correlation tends to be positive throughout. Thus, the results support a greater flight-to-safety effect in developed markets. Further evidence highlights the ability of the correlation to produce portfolios with a lower VaR. Results support this at longer time-scales and for both developed and emerging markets. The results here demonstrate the importance of accounting for time-scales in modelling the stock-bond correlation and in constructing portfolios.