A note on compact differentiability and theδ-method

Letη _n ,n ∈ ?, be arbitrary functions defined on a probability space (ω,A,P) with values in a normed vector spaceB ₁ ,μ ∈ B ₁ andξ ₀ a separable random element inB ₁ such thatξ _n :=√n(η _n ?μ) converges weakly toξ ₀ in the sense of Hoffmann-Jørgensen. Then with (B ₂, ∥·∥₂) being another normed vector space andφ:B ₁→B ₂ compactly differentiable atμ with derivateD _μ, the random variable $\parallel \sqrt n (\phi (n_n ) - \phi (\mu )) - D_\mu (\sqrt n (n_n - \mu ))\parallel 2*$ converges to 0P-stochastically where “*” denotes the measurable cover. We show that the classicalδ — method extends to the non-measurable case where in the proof we shall not make use of any representation theorems but only of a slight refinement of the usual characterisation of compact differentiability, due to the fact that we will not assume {ξ _n :n ∈ ?} being tight.     

Beyond the obvious: Examining ways of consolidating early detection schemes

In the domain of futures studies, the need to develop methods and concepts to identify risks or opportunities “early enough” has become an issue and almost a discrete sub-field with its own debates, specialties and schools of thought.Our examination of the literature in this domain shows that early detection, early warning or weak signal analysis, to mention just a few of the terms being used, tends to convey the idea that finding faint evidence of possible futures is actually rather easy. We, however, believe that it is far from being an off-the-shelf process for whoever wants to detect early signs of changes. At the very least it raises cost/benefit questions, and it may have some shortcomings which, if ignored, could substantially increase the vulnerability of an organization. Our goal in this paper is to explore ways of going beyond an overly optimistic approach and provide a basis for the pragmatic use of weak signals and similar notions in strategic management and policy-making processes.After browsing through the several approaches that propose methods for the “early” tackling of trends, uncertainties, risks or opportunities to come, we will focus on the approaches defined by 1) weak signals and 2) early warnings or equivalents for the analysis of possible futures. We will in particular examine how mainstream claims have been presented then improved in the last 25 years, as well as how some of the problems involved have been insufficiently addressed so far. We will then show how these problems (closely linked to how the early perception claims are configured — how they are framed and modeled but also made affordable and useful) can directly impact the performance and management style of the organizations and societal settings in which they are deployed. The concluding section will propose a pragmatic approach to the problems raised: paradigmatic weaknesses or forms of blindness. This precautionary principle should lead to a real option approach in terms of futures to be considered and evaluated, so as to enhance the chances of avoiding risks, as well as following up promising directions, radical innovations or, more generally, strategic decision-making processes in both the corporate and policy-making arenas.     

On the macroeconomic effects of establishing tradability in weak property rights

The New Economy is closely associated with computing & communications technology, notably the Internet. We discuss property rights to, and trade in, the difficult-to-define intangible assets increasingly dominating the New Economy, and the possibility of under-investment in these assets. For a realistic analysis we introduce a Schumpeterian market environment (the experimentally organized economy). Weak property rights prevail when the rights to access, use, andtrade in intangible assets cannot be fully exercised. The trade-off between the benefits of open access on the Internet, and the incentive effects of strengthened property rights, depend both on the particular strategy a firm employs to secure property rights, and the protection offered by law. Economic property rights can be strengthened if the originator can find innovative ways to charge for the intangible assets. The extreme complexity of the New Economy and the large number of possible innovative private contract arrangements make it more important to facilitate the use and enforcement of private individualized contracts to protect intellectual property than to rely only on standard patent and copyright law. Enabling law is one proposed solution. Current patent legislation in the US has led to costly litigation processes weakening the position of small firms and individuals in patent disputes. The property rights of such firms and individuals could be strengthened with insurance or arbitration procedures.JEL Classification: D21, D23, D52, D82, H54, K11, K22, K41, L11, L23, M13, O14, O33An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 9th Congress of the International Joseph A. Schumpeter Society (ISS), Gainesville, Florida, USA, March 28-30, 2002. The paper is part of the Nödfor project on Schumpeterian Creative Destruction, notably the exit and bankruptcy process, based at the Ratio Institute, Stockholm.     

Statistical Regularity and Free Will: L.A.J. Quetelet and P.A. Nekrasov

In the 19th century, causes of empirically observed stability of averages in settings relating to human behaviour were a topic of intense discussion in western Europe. This followed an extensive study of empirical stability by the founder of modern statistics (and of the International Statistical Institute) L.A.J. Quetelet, published in 1835, in what he called "Social Physics". The eminent mathematician of strong probabilistic and philosophical inclination and Russian Orthodox religious belief, P.A. Nekrasov, took up and modified Quetelet's Social Physics in 1902, with (social) independence seen as prime cause of statistical regularity. Our paper focuses on the role free will plays in the statistical writings of Quetelet and of Nekrasov. The work of the latter has remained little known in general, mainly for politico-ideological reasons.     

I.J. Bienaymé [1796–1878]: Criticality,Inequality, and Internationalization*

Two striking contributions of Bienaymé to mathematical statistics: (1) a completely correct statemet of the Criticality Theorem for simple branching processes in 1845; and (2) the derivation of the Bienaymé-Chebyshev Inequality, are revisited on the 200th anniversary of his birth. We use writings and archival materials available since the note of Heyde & Seneta (1972) to present a fuller biographical picture. Bienaymé's connections with Buniakovsky and Chebyshev are elucidated, and this role in furthering Chebyshev's international contacts outlined. A concluding section illuminates Bienaymé's understanding of the linear regression of one random variable on another in an actuarial context of random shocks.     

The demand functions that satisfy the weak axiom of revealed preference and generalized monotonicity

We prove that the individual demand function satisfying the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference and the excess demand function satisfying the Wald’s Axiom are pseudomonotone_*⁺, a new class of generalized monotonicity. With this new concept, we refine the characterization of Zhou for the individual demand function. In particular, a full characterization for the excess demand functions satisfying the Wald’s Axiom is derived.     

大学生偷窥现象分析与防范措施探究

该文从目前我国大学生偷窥现象的现状出发，详细分析产生的原因：性生理和心理的成熟的必要性；青少年性知识教育的缺失；学校硬件资源的紧缺，造成楼距视野过近；社会偷窥风气对当代大学生的不良影响：大学生个人私生活的不注意，自我保护意识较弱；少数大学生的法律意识淡薄；学校对学生管理的不到位。从而找出防范和杜绝大学生偷窥现象的措施。     

人的全面自由发展目标实现的历史分析

人的全面自由发展是一个自然历史过程,人的发展状况归根结底是社会经济规律运动的表现。在总体框架下,社会经济历史中发生的对人的发展有各种主观选择,它们尽管不能超越历史的制约,却不一定是当时历史条件下的最佳方案。在不同的社会发展阶段,人的全面自由发展具有不同的内涵。共同富裕、共同发展目标应当作为社会主义初级阶段人的全面自由发展的历史特征。在不脱离现时代经济文化结构的前提下,注重人的发展完全可以从文明发展、劳动力生产社会化、社会保障、增强人民群众环境维护权、努力改变城乡二元经济结构等方面入手。     

国际信用评级机构在危机中的行为分析及启示

以穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉为代表的信用评级机构在现代金融系统中扮演着重要角色。但在近年来的几次金融危机中,信用评级机构却因发放的信用评级不断丧失客观公正而广受质疑本文通过对评级机构的起源、经营、监管和所处市场环境的讨论,对其受质疑行为所产生的根源进行了分析,并由此引发出对我国信用评级业发展的一些启示。