Convergence of numerical solutions for a class of stochastic age-dependent capital system with Markovian switching

Recently, numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations have received a great deal of attention. Numerical approximation schemes are invaluable tools for exploring its properties. In this paper, we introduce a class of stochastic age-dependent (vintage) capital system with Markovian switching, and investigate the convergence of numerical approximation. It is proved that the numerical approximation solutions converge to the analytic solutions of the equations under the given conditions. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Replacement rates and labour market behaviour

This paper studies how the replacement rate, defined as the ratio of disposable income when unemployed to expected disposable income if beginning to work, affects individuals’ transition rate from unemployment. Linked register data, representing a local Finnish labour market in 1996, are analysed with piece-wise constant exponential hazard models. Results suggest that the effect of the replacement rate and, thus, of “unemployment traps”, is fairly modest. It does not seem to change with time spent unemployed. The impact on the transition rate into employment is lower than on the transition rate out of the labour force. Unemployment insurance recipients are found to be less sensitive to changes in the replacement rate than are unemployment assistance recipients.     

US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty

This paper focuses on the effects of political uncertainty and the political process on implied stock market volatility during US presidential election cycles. Using monthly Iowa Electronic Markets data over five elections, we document that stock market uncertainty, as measured by the VIX volatility index, increases along with positive changes in the probability of success of the eventual winner. The association between implied volatility and the election probability of the eventual winner is positive even after controlling for changes in overall election uncertainty. These findings indicate that the presidential election process engenders market anxiety as investors form and revise their expectations regarding future macroeconomic policy.     

Viable Ramsey economies

The Ramsey model of economic growth is revisited from the perspective of viability theory. The Ramsey model, augmented with minimal consumption and sustainability criteria, becomes a viability problem. The framework allows for a clear picture of optimal viable, optimal non‐viable, and viable non‐optimal paths. The drastic sacrifices in terms of present consumption required by the implementation of Brundtland sustainability are visualized, the rich countries bearing the major part of the burden. The econometric analysis of viability sets enhances the role of technological progress in ensuring Brundtland sustainability. Preference parameters such as the pure time preference rate are statistically non‐significant.     

Experiments on unemployment benefit sanctions and job search behavior

This paper presents the results of an experimental study on unemployment benefit sanctions. The experimental set-up allows us to distinguish between the effect of benefit sanctions once they are imposed (the ex post effect) and the threat of getting a benefit sanction imposed (the ex ante effect). We find that both effects matter. Moreover, the ex ante effect turns out to be substantial and bigger than the ex post effect. Benefits sanctions stimulate the outflow from unemployment.     

全面创新管理视角下企业技术创新能力成长模型

在对我国11家重点工业企业进行实地调研的基础上,提出全面创新管理视角下的企业技术创新能力成长模型,包括用户拉动、开放创新、全面创新、人才激励4个模块。认为企业技术创新能力的提升来自于如下方面:将创新与市场需求紧密结合;建立产学研、上下游、国内外有效结合的合作创新网络;实现技术创新、管理创新与制度创新的有效互动;充分发挥人才的创新潜力。     

Does past unemployment experience explain the transition happiness gap?

The profound economic and political changes of the 1990s had detrimental social effects in many domains of life in post-socialist countries, including diminishing life expectancy and growing unhappiness. Despite economic improvements in the second decade of transition, research has documented that happiness lagged behind. We test whether past unemployment experience can explain this “transition happiness gap in the context of Ukraine”, a country with a painful delayed transition from planned to market economy. We analyze unique longitudinal data for the period 2003–2012. Current unemployment substantially reduces subjective wellbeing, and the effect is roughly 50% larger for men than for women. The effect of past unemployment is significant, but small in magnitude compared to the effect of current unemployment. However, it does correspond to around 8% of the ‘’transition happiness gap” found by Guriev and Melnikov (2017), suggesting that past unemployment experience can be considered as a partial explanation.     

In Praise of Expansionary Fiscal Contraction

Textbook orthodoxy maintains that increases in the cyclically adjusted budget balance (i.e. reductions in the deficit) withdraw demand from an economy. Those Keynesian economists who believe that fiscal policy is the most powerful single influence on changes in demand expect ‘fiscal contraction’ to be accompanied by below‐trend growth or even declines in output. This article, a response to Martin Wolf's 2013 Wincott Memorial Lecture, considers this Keynesian view. Using a database prepared by the International Monetary Fund, it shows that since the 1980s ‘expansionary fiscal contractions’ have been the norm and not the exception in the USA and the UK. Keynesian support for fiscal activism is unsupported by a large body of recent evidence.     

The Beginnings of the Japanese Medical Instruments Industry and the Adaptation of Western Medicine to Japan, 1880–1937

This article focuses on the development of the Japanese medical instrument industry from the 1880s to the beginning of the war against China (1937). It argues that the growth of this industry relied on the adaptation of Western technologies to the Japanese environment. The article focuses on the learning processes adopted by Japanese entrepreneurs, revealing a major difference between small enterprises, engaged in innovation based on reverse engineering and cooperation with medical doctors, on the one hand, and large firms which benefitted from organisational facilities acquired through international technology transfer and cooperation with domestic R&D centres, on the other hand.     

Episodes of unemployment reduction in rich,middle-income and transition economies

This paper studies the incidence and determinants of episodes of drastic unemployment reduction, defined as swift, substantial, and sustained declines in unemployment. We identify 43 episodes over a period of nearly 3 decades in 94 rich, middle-income and transition countries. Unemployment reductions often coincide with an acceleration of growth and an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. Episodes are much more prevalent in countries with higher levels of unemployment and, given unemployment, are more likely in countries with better regulation. An efficient legal system that enforces contracts expeditiously is particularly important for reducing unemployment. The results imply that while employment is largely related to the business cycle, better regulation reduces likelihood of high unemployment and facilitates a more rapid recovery in the event unemployment builds up.