河北省土地生态系统服务价值研究及趋势预测

编制适用于河北省的土地生态系统服务价值系数表,利用土地基础数据和生态系统服务价值量化模型,计算出河北省土地生态系统服务价值在1996～2006年呈现先减少后增加的变化趋势;并运用spss统计软件中的曲线回归对变化趋势做出了合理预测。     

On the importance of systematic risk factors in explaining the cross-section of corporate bond yield spreads

In this paper we examine the importance of systematic equity market factors in explaining the cross-sectional variation in yield spreads on corporate debt. Based on a sample of 1771 corporate bonds over the period from January 1985 to March 1998, we find that once the default-related variables are controlled for, bond betas or sensitivities to aggregate equity market risks have very limited explanatory power. This is in contrast to [Elton, E.J., Gruber, M.J., 2001. Explaining the rate spread on corporate bonds. Journal of Finance 56, 247–277] who find that market factors tied to expected returns are predominantly important, but who do not control for these variables (i.e. the relevant variables from structural models), possibly biasing their estimates. On the other hand, our finding that the systematic factors exhibit some limited explanatory power suggests that the standard contingent claims approach may not fully apply. This finding is consistent with previous research that bond betas are not completely irrelevant once market frictions are introduced. Overall, the evidence provides empirical support for the proposition that structural models capture important elements of corporate bond yield spread determination and equity market systematic factors are by no means predominant.     

考虑应力作用影响的黄泛区粉土土水特征曲线分析与预测

为了研究应力作用对土水特征曲线的影响，采用应力关联土水特征仪测定不同应力下粉土的脱湿-吸湿曲线，讨论应力变化对粉土土水特征的影响规律，并利用应力与孔隙比的关系提出考虑应力作用的粉土土水特征曲线预测方法。研究发现：试样在应力逐渐增加时不易脱水，但更易吸水，非饱和粉土的持水能力随着正应力的增大而增强；脱湿曲线与吸湿曲线并不重合，有明显的回滞现象，并且吸湿曲线饱和度的变化比脱湿曲线更加剧烈；随着正应力的增大，滞回圈面积减小，滞回特性减弱。此外，将预测曲线与测得的试验曲线对比, 可知提出的考虑应力的土水特征曲线预测方法具有较好的预测精度。     

Putting the learning curve in context

In implementation of change, people learn new ways of doing things, develop new skills, and adopt new organizational routines. This paper applies learning curve theory to implementation by developing a system dynamics model that includes two extensions to classic learning curve theory. First, the model includes a required output level for the individual. Second, the model includes a budget constraint on time that forces a choice between an old and a new way to achieve the output. Doing work the new way builds experience, increasing productivity and thus favoring continued use of the new skill, but model analysis demonstrates that this reinforcing process works to favor the new skill only at relatively high levels of productivity. Otherwise, the same process is a vicious cycle, driving out the new skill. The model exhibits a mode of behavior in which learning begins and then stalls and another mode in which the new skill becomes the preferred one. The paper identifies the tipping point between these two modes and characterizes the transition problem: Learning by doing is a dynamic process, a transition from use of an old way to a new way that requires accumulating experience beyond a threshold.     

Star rating and corporate affiliation: their influence on room price and performance of hotels in Israel

The purpose of this paper is to ascertain whether and how star rating and corporate affiliation, as signals of quality, influence pricing decisions of hotels in Israel in various geographical locations, each with its specific market characteristics and during two different periods in which the business environment suffers from a crisis due to the political circumstances in the Middle East. The data suggests that the star-rating system, which is traditionally used to rate hotels’ quality, is a still stable and consistent predictor of room prices. However, in light of the increased usage of brand names in the Israeli industry, it was found that the ability to charge and receive a premium for the hotel corporate affiliation or brand name is not consistent. The analysis presents the case in which a premium for brand name is eroded by the influence of the crisis, by the level of corporate intensity in the region, and also by the relative strength of consumers in the different geographical locations.     

The Swedish third way: an assessment of the performance and validity of the Rehn-Meidner model

This paper analyses the functioning of the Rehn–Meidnermodel in Sweden and the validity of the model's underlying theory.Both sceptics and friends of ‘the Swedish model’have exaggerated the effects of active labour market policyand solidarity wage policy on employment, inflation and growth.However, these policies have contributed to the reduction ofhysteresis effects and wage differentials in Sweden. Furthermore,Swedish experiences confirm the Rehn–Meidner view thatpositive demand shocks and expansionary macroeconomic policiesmake it difficult to combine full employment with price stability,economic growth and equity even if central wage negotiationsare coordinated and trade unions willingly accept wage restraint.     

新疆人口城市化问题研究

运用人口普查资料及其它人口统计数据 ,分析新疆城镇人口过去 50年的变化 ,探究新疆人口城镇化过程的特征和成因 ,并运用数学模型预测未来新疆城镇人口及人口城镇化水平。提出新疆城镇体系发展战略构想及对策     

银行持债行为影响国债市场的实证研究

本文从2003年银行间国债市场的回购利率和国债收益率的角度出发,同时结合货币政策对银行的资金调节作用,对银行持债行为与国债市场之间的关系进行了实证研究,从而揭示出银行持债行为对国债市场的重大影响作用,并得出有关债券市场的三个基本结论。     

Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States

The paper seeks to explain the inflationary dynamics in the Baltic countries since the mid-1990s. Single-equation estimations generally yield poor results, while panel data estimations provide statistically and economically satisfactory findings. The main result is that the observed gradual disinflation can to a large extent be explained by adjustment to international prices. Stringent fixed exchange rate systems have exerted downward pressure on inflation both directly and via expectations to future inflation. Measures of excess capacity in the labour market have no effect on inflation, while industrial output gaps have some explanatory power. Real oil price shocks have an immediate but short-lived impact on inflation.