The term structures of equity and interest rates

This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model capable of jointly explaining the term structure of interest rates, returns on the aggregate market, and the risk and return characteristics of value and growth stocks. Both the term structure of interest rates and returns on value and growth stocks convey information about how the representative investor values cash flows of different maturities. We model how the representative investor perceives risks of these cash flows by specifying a parsimonious stochastic discount factor for the economy. Shocks to dividend growth, the real interest rate, and expected inflation are priced, but shocks to the price of risk are not. Given reasonable assumptions for dividends and inflation, we show that the model can simultaneously account for the behavior of aggregate stock returns, an upward-sloping yield curve, the failure of the expectations hypothesis, and the poor performance of the capital asset pricing model.     

商业银行理财产品绩效评价研究

本文针对理财产品市场的复杂现状,建立商业银行理财产品的评价指标体系,以23家国内商业银行发行的人民币银行理财产品为样本,从风险和收益两个维度对理财产品进行综合绩效评价,并在此基础上为理财产品市场进一步的发展提出了相关的建议。     

全球价值链视角下我国区域造船产业竞争力评价研究

根据全球价值链理论,结合微笑曲线,文章从研发能力、制造能力、营销能力3个环节,构建了造船产业竞争力评价指标体系,运用灰色关联法对我国15个主要造船省份的造船产业竞争力进行排名,分析我国造船产业在融入全球价值链过程中,各个主要造船省份的竞争优势和劣势,最后对几个主要省份造船产业竞争力提升提出了对策建议。     

Managing inventory with two suppliers under yield uncertainty and risk aversion

In this paper, we consider a single-product single-period inventory model in which the retailer can source from two suppliers. The primary supplier is cheaper but unreliable in the sense that it generates supply yield uncertainty, whereas the secondary supplier is perfectly reliable but more expensive. The reliable supplier's capacity is fixed and the retailer cannot order more than the quantity reserved in advance. We study the problem in the context of a risk-averse retailer who has to determine the optimal order quantity from the primary supplier and the optimal reserved quantity from the secondary supplier. We develop the model in the perspective of a low risk averse retailer and quantify the risk via an exponential utility function. We show by numerical experiments how the resulting dual sourcing strategies differ from those obtained in the risk-neutral analysis. We also examine the sensitivity of some model-parameters on the optimal decisions.     

EKC-type transitions and environmental policy under pollutant uncertainty and cost irreversibility

Previous studies have suggested that some pollutant levels first increases due to the economic growth and then start decreasing, the pattern being called the “environmental Kuznets curve” (EKC). We examine EKC-type transitions of pollutant levels not with respect to economic growth but more generally in time. Assuming that each policy maker optimally executes the two switching options of regulation and unregulation for pollution, the switching dynamics of environmental policy can be described by an alternating renewal process. It is shown that the double Laplace transform of transition density of a pollutant level can be obtained by a novel application of renewal theory. The expected level of overall pollutants is then calculated numerically and found to exhibit either a Λ‐shaped or an N-shaped pattern in time. Our results present a simple explanation for the EKC-type transitions of pollutant levels within a real options framework.     

Two state capital accumulation with heterogenous products: Disruptive vs. non-disruptive goods

The paper considers the problem of a firm that, while producing a standard product, has the option to introduce an innovative product. The innovative product competes with the standard product and will therefore reduce revenues of the standard product. A distinction is made between innovative products that do or do not become even more relatively appealing as their market share grows (e.g., because of network externalities). It is shown that in the former case, which we call a “disruptive” good, history dependent long run equilibria can occur, which are in line with recent real life economic examples.     

Dynamic technological learning trends in Turkish manufacturing industries

Efficient development of industries requires a broad range of technological capabilities which can be acquired only by a long process of learning. Continuous measuring and monitoring of the ever-changing technological learning would be useful for building technological capability and managing technological policies. Nevertheless, research on how to measure the technological learning over time at macro levels remains largely untouched. In this paper, by adding the experience curve into the multifactor productivity part of Neoclassical production function, we will develop a model which will allow one to estimate the technological learning levels over long periods. This model would allow a user to both estimate the past learning experiences and forecast its future path on a time varying basis. The model has been used and tested in the estimation of the annual technological learning values for 28 Turkish manufacturing industries from 1981 to 2000.     

我国国债利率期限结构研究

本文简单地阐述了传统的利率期限结构理论,通过连续复利的方式获得了我国国债的到期收益率。在此基础上,构造了国债收益率曲线并通过建模获得了收益率曲线的回归方程。同时,根据我国国债利率期限结构的形状和特点,用传统的利率期限结构理论对其进行理论说明,并指出国债产品设计与定价上的问题与改进建议。     

关于曲线积分和曲面积分教学中几个难点的突破

加强曲线、曲面积分概念讲解,标准化曲线、曲面积分的计算程序,沟通有关积分之间关系,以消除学生 对斯托克斯等公式的深奥感,有效地突破了曲线、曲面积分教学中的几个难点。