中国经济增长与环境污染之间关系的理论解释与贝叶斯回归分析

环境污染在两个方面改变了经济增长模型,一方面它是产出的联合产品,另一方面它给消费者带来负效用。我们分析了以下几个问题：环境保护与经济增长是否相容;长期来看无污染积累的可持续增长是否可能;环境对经济增长的影响;如果引入环境因素,我们关注的关键变量如：收入、消费、资本以及环境污染的最优路径如何变化,据此可以推出哪些可驳斥的推断;观测数据与环境库茨涅茨曲线的理论推断特征是否相符。文章根据标准的经济学理论基础假设构建了一个理论模型,在设定了偏好、技术、禀赋、信息后,求出动态一般均衡解路径。使用环境污染的观测数据,附加关键参数的先验分布,运用贝叶斯推断求出参数的后验分布对理论模型的推断进行验证。文章的主要贡献是对环境库茨涅茨曲线采用了不同于传统回归分析的贝叶斯回归技术,并得出了有意义的分析结果。     

环境规制对产业结构的作用机理研究

利用1998年-2014年全国各省的面板数据,通过理论分析与联立方程模型的构建,实证研究了环境规制对产业结构调整的作用机理。研究发现:环境规制对产业结构的调整存在倒逼机制和空间异质性,即提高环境规制强度能够促进产业结构的调整,中部效应最明显,东部次之,西部效应不明显。因此,从全国的角度来讲,国家应采取科学合理的环境经济手段,适当提高环境规制程度,发挥其对产业结构调整的促进作用;从区域的角度来讲,地方政府应根据本区域的环境状况和经济发展状况,制定相应的环境规制政策,发挥其最大效用,增加社会福利。     

余额宝收益率与上海银行间同业拆借利率 关系的实证研究

作为互联网理财产品的代表,余额宝收益率与货币市场基准利率密切相关。本文 选取余额宝收益率与市场利率的代表——上海银行间同业拆借利率（Shibor）的数据,采用向 量自回归模型（VAR）对两者的关系进行实证研究,研究结果表明：余额宝收益率与Shibor互 为因果,余额宝以上万亿的基金规模已经能够影响Shibor,当期的余额宝收益率和Shibor主要受 自身前期影响。Shibor的市场基准性仍需进一步加强;余额宝应加强自身经营,充分利用大数 据技术建立风险防范机制,提升风险管理效率;相关部门应重视对余额宝的监管,既要保证监 管的有效性,又要适度监管,为金融创新留下空间,维护金融市场的健康稳定发展。     

NAIRU Estimates for Germany: New Evidence on the Inflation–Unemployment Tradeoff

Meaningful estimates of the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) within a Phillips curve framework require an identified tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. However, observations of inflation and unemployment are equilibrium points giving rise to a simultaneity problem. We assess conventional identifying assumptions in the literature on the German NAIRU in a general bi‐variate equations system of inflation and unemplyoment. We use a data‐driven method for identification based on shifts in the relative volatility of shocks to unemployment and inflation to identify the tradeoff for Germany. Our results support models which estimate a contemporaneous effect of unemployment on inflation and those which model inflation and unemployment jointly.     

Can tourism be a key sector in reducing income inequality? An empirical investigation for Turkey

The aim of the study is to investigate the nexus between tourism and income inequality by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) test cover the period 1974–2015 in Turkey. Findings indicated that the variables are cointegrated and an increase in tourism has a positive effect on income inequality, while economic growth and trade openness have a negative effect both in the long-run and short-run. Results also denote that tourism will decrease income inequality with the expansion of tourism activities and the spread of tourism throughout society. In other words, the tourism-related Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid for Turkey.     

Examining the change in wellbeing following a holiday

Building on existing evidence that tourism contributes to wellbeing, this study aims to investigate how both hedonic and eudaimonic wellbeing changes after a holiday. A longitudinal inquiry involving three waves of observation (during, the fourth week, and the eighth week following a holiday) was carried out in five tourism cities in China, using Latent Growth Curve models to analyze change. Results suggest that life satisfaction – an indicator of hedonic wellbeing – does not decline as expected whereas other indicators of hedonic wellbeing declined dramatically in the first month and then mildly in the second month following a holiday. Comparatively, eudaimonic wellbeing declined gradually and mildly during the same two-month intervals. Higher levels of optimal tourism experiences predicted slower declines of both hedonic and eudaimonic wellbeing. Theoretical, methodological, and practical implications are discussed.     

Exploiting commodity momentum along the futures curves

This study examines novel momentum strategies in commodities futures markets that incorporate term-structure information. We show that momentum strategies that invest in contracts on the futures curve with the largest expected roll-yield or the strongest momentum earn significantly higher risk-adjusted returns than a traditional momentum strategy, which only invests in the nearest contracts. Moreover, when incorporating conservative transaction costs we observe that our low-turnover momentum strategy more than doubles the net return compared to a traditional momentum strategy.     

The nature of trade,global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross-country evidence

This study investigates under which circumstances trade has impact on inflation dynamics by examining the independent effects of trade intensity, intra-industry trade and trade on value added. Trade in goods is decomposed into consumption (final) goods and intermediate inputs to deepen the assessment of the role of the globalisation of production activities on inflation dynamics. Open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) analyses suggest that inflation is sensitive to domestic factors and that the relevance of external factors changes with respect to the nature of trade, country groups and time. Vertical intra-industry trade in intermediate inputs and value-added trade play important role, whereas final goods trade has no statistically significant effect on inflation dynamics.     

Impact of distance on the arrivals,behaviours and attitudes of international tourists in Hong Kong: A longitudinal approach

This study revisits the impact of distance on international tourist behaviours in Hong Kong. This work divides and cross-validates the concept of distance into physical and cultural distance. This work also proposes an alternative cultural distance measure by introducing optimal weight amongst Hofstede's dimensions and then compares the proposed measure with the traditional Kogut and Singh's and Kandogan's measures. By using data from the Visitor Profile Report of the Hong Kong Tourism Board and the World Trade Organisation from 2002 to 2017, along with latent growth curve modelling, multivariate regression and panel data analysis, findings confirmed the significant role of physical and cultural distance. In addition, quadratic relationships are detected using cross-validation methods. The effect of physical distance on tourist demands clearly dominates that of cultural distance in the overall market. The problem of spurious correlation and the results of three cultural distance measures are also discussed.     

等概率条件下的转弯型堆垛机作业效率的计算研究

转弯型堆垛机是自动化立体仓库中实现货物自动存取的关键设备,文中对转弯型堆垛机效率问题进行研究。在假定等概率拣取货物的条件下,分别推求转弯型堆垛机的平均单一作业和复合作业循环周期和作业效率的计算公式,并利用华南理工大学仓储综合实验室的基本数据进行了作业效率的实证计算,从而为自动化立体仓库系统的建设设计和有效管理提供依据。