土地利用结构、经济发展与土地碳排放影响效应研究——以乌鲁木齐市为例

[目的]在测算乌鲁木齐市土地利用碳排放的基础上,分析其土地利用结构、经济发展与土地碳排放间的关联效应,为乌鲁木齐市低碳土地利用提供参考。[方法]改进型灰色关联度模型、环境EKC模型。[结果](1)土地利用净碳排放总量递增趋势,净碳放量的持续上升显著地受建设用地碳排放增长的影响;(2)不同地类结构变化对土地利用碳排放影响效应呈现不同特点,建设用地对碳排放影响效应呈下降趋势,而耕地则在上升;(3)经济发展促进了碳排放增长,但在2014~2015年之间达到拐点,验证了环境库兹涅兹曲线的存在。[结论](1)推动增汇减排工作,抑制农用地转用,增加陆地生态碳吸收量;(2)发展低碳经济,提高能源利用效率和改善能源利用结构,降低建设用地碳排放;(3)深入推行"多规合一",提高土地利用宏观调控效率和低碳生态城市建设。     

It is not easy being a Green party: Green politics as a normal good

An extensive body of literature shows that voters often credit or blame ruling political parties for economic successes and failures, respectively. This paper presents a related, but new possibility: whether local economic conditions impact Green party electoral outcomes. According to the environmental Kuznets curve, high-income countries will see decreased environmental degradation as they become wealthier, but it is yet to be seen whether this relationship is carried over to environmentally friendly political parties. Using a panel data set that includes over 250 elections from 26 European countries, we find that elections held during times of economic growth increase the vote share that Green parties win. This effect is especially robust for national elections, as opposed to elections for the European Parliament. The magnitudes are large enough to potentially alter the number of seats Green parties have in national legislatures. This provides evidence that Green parties are most likely to gain seats when the economy is growing, and support for the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve.     

Is There a Trade-Off between COVID-19 Control and Economic Activity? Implications from the Phillips Curve Debate

In this paper, we argue that the roles of public policies concerning COVID-19 can be better understood in light of the past discussions on the Great Inflation of the 1970s and the 1980s. Like the Phillips Curve in macroeconomics, the pandemic presents a trade-off between economic activities and something undesirable, which is, in this case, infection. Like the Phillips Curve, this apparent output-infection trade-off is an elusive one and it is lost in the long run. Containing infections calls for decisive policy action. This paper shows that we could design a reaction function, which sets the level of economic activity as a function of the state of infection, in such a way that the possibility of an infection explosion would be eliminated. Our empirical analysis suggests that Tokyo, New York, and London since September 2020 do not satisfy this desirable property.     

Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review

Secondary market illiquidity is an important non-default factor affecting yield spreads. Yet, a review of the literature suggests the findings are mixed, both regarding the relative size of the default versus non-default components as well as the relative importance of liquidity premium for investment-grade and high-yield bonds. While in theory country and currency risk might affect international bonds' yield spreads, empirical findings show that international corporate bonds pricing and liquidity are generally affected by the same factors as the U.S. market. We identify several other areas of disagreement and challenges in the literature that warrant further research.     

Does the Exchange Rate Respond to Monetary Policy in Mexico? Solving an Exchange Rate Puzzle in Emerging Markets

This paper argues that the null or weak response of emerging market currencies to domestic monetary policy documented in the literature is the result of wide event windows. An event study with intraday data for Mexico shows that an unanticipated tightening appreciates the currency and flattens the yield curve, consistent with the evidence for advanced economies. With daily event windows, however, only the yield curve responds to monetary policy. Noise in daily exchange rate returns explains the lack of response of the currency. Such noise gives rise to a bias that declines after controlling for potential omitted variables.     

The 1932 Federal Reserve Open-Market Purchases as a Precedent for Quantitative Easing

The $1 billion open-market operation conducted by the Federal Reserve, at the height of the Great Depression, was a successful precedent to the recent Quantitative Easing (QE) programs. The 1932 program entailed large purchases of medium- and long-term securities over a 4-month period. An event study analysis indicates that the program dramatically lowered medium- and long-term Treasury yields. A segmented markets model is used to analyze the effects of the open-market purchases on the economy. A significant degree of financial market segmentation is estimated, and partly explains the observed upturn in output growth. Had the Federal Reserve continued its operations and used the announcement strategy used in QE1, the Great Contraction could have been attenuated earlier. Our historical analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve in 2008 had a good predecessor to its actions.     

Bank loans and bond prices

We test whether bank loans change public bond yields. A 25% increase in bank debt raises bond yields by 8 bps, reflecting a trade-off between the benefits of bank cross-monitoring and higher bond risk. This effect is smaller for firms with no credit default swaps (CDSs) and with junk debt—scenarios where bank monitoring is most valuable. It is unlikely that firms with bank debt are riskier, because they are less likely to be downgraded and have lower loan spreads. We find similar results using a natural experiment around the 2014 oil shock. Our results highlight how bond yields depend on incentive conflicts among creditors.     

Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data?

This study seeks new empirical evidence of the Phillips curve in Indonesia, an emerging and geographically diversified economy. There are three important contributions from this research. First, applying panel econometric method to exploit regional variation, the study resolves the issue of using on-target national inflation rates that potentially causes weakening inflation-output link. Second, the research examines the relevance of mining industry for output gap measurement at regional level. Third, it highlights the differences in the Phillips curve between the west and east regions owing to their different underlying economic structures. Our estimation using regional data support the validity of the Phillips curve relationship in Indonesia. Backward-looking inflation expectations, exchange rate dynamics and international prices also significantly affect inflation. In addition, the effect of output gap on inflation is larger if the mining sector is excluded from output gap measurement. Finally, we find apparent differences between the west and the eastern regions in the slope of Phillips curve, as well as in the degree of inflation persistence and exchange rate pass-through. The results are robust to alternative specification. Our study adds significantly to the empirical literature on the Phillips curve and have meaningful policy implications.     

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Inflation Dynamics during and after the Great Recession

In this paper, I develop a New Keynesian model that embeds heterogeneous workers with asymmetric wage adjustment costs to address two inflation puzzles: missing deflation during the Great Recession and the subsequent missing inflation. When the wage adjustment costs are estimated according to U.S. microwage data, downward nominal wage rigidity emerges, which flattens the observed price Phillips curve during and after recessions. Endogenous evolution of the cross-sectional wage distribution generates nonlinear dynamics including the sign, size, and state dependence. These nonlinearities enable the model to address the inflation puzzles as well as matching microevidence on wage adjustments.     

Reforms and education inequality in Ghana

We analyze the evolvement of education inequality and the gender gap in Ghana before and after two major education reforms. Using different measures of inequality, our findings suggest that the gender gap at the basic school level has closed following the introduction of the education expansion policies, but inequalities persist at the postbasic school levels and across regions. We further demonstrate that the educational expansion–schooling inequality nexus is best illustrated by an inverted U-shaped Kuznets curve. We find that after an average of 6 years of schooling has been reached, inequality starts to decline, and gender equality can be achieved when the average years of schooling reach 9.