事故致因R-t图初探

依据当前事故成因特点,通过对诸多典型事故发生的本质原因进行分折和提炼后,提出了以横坐标为时间轴(t),纵坐标为系统状态或危险度(R)值的事故致因R-t图。该图动态反映了事故发生机理,可从理论上为分析事故原因、预测预防事故和改进安全管理工作提供科学的、指导性的借鉴和依据。     

Clustering-based classification of road traffic accidents using hierarchical clustering and artificial neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely used in predicting the severity of road traffic crashes. All available information about previously occurred accidents is typically used for building a single prediction model (i.e., classifier). Too little attention has been paid to the differences between these accidents, leading, in most cases, to build less accurate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is a well-known clustering method that seeks to group data by creating a hierarchy of clusters. Using hierarchical clustering and ANNs, a clustering-based classification approach for predicting the injury severity of road traffic accidents was proposed. About 6000 road accidents occurred over a six-year period from 2008 to 2013 in Abu Dhabi were used throughout this study. In order to reduce the amount of variation in data, hierarchical clustering was applied on the data set to organize it into six different forms, each with different number of clusters (i.e., clusters from 1 to 6). Two ANN models were subsequently built for each cluster of accidents in each generated form. The first model was built and validated using all accidents (training set), whereas only 66% of the accidents were used to build the second model, and the remaining 34% were used to test it (percentage split). Finally, the weighted average accuracy was computed for each type of models in each from of data. The results show that when testing the models using the training set, clustering prior to classification achieves (11%–16%) more accuracy than without using clustering, while the percentage split achieves (2%–5%) more accuracy. The results also suggest that partitioning the accidents into six clusters achieves the best accuracy if both types of models are taken into account.     

昆明市轨道交通客伤事故分析与预防研究

预防客伤的发生是提高城市轨道交通服务水平的重要部分,分析客伤事故发生的原因,制定预防事故发生的对策一直是轨道交通安全领域的研究热点。在分析客流提升与客伤相互关系的基础上,解析了客伤人员结构分布、客伤时间分布、不同线路客伤特征以及引发客伤的主要原因。以昆明市城市轨道交通为例,通过对2013年至2019年的客伤数据统计分析,从工作人员业务技能、客伤频发时段、“个性化”高事故率车站预防措施、安全宣传、信息化等方面提出了建议。     

铁路货运事故处理质量满意评价体系研究

利用系统工程方法,以铁路货运事故处理工作为背景,相关铁路规章制度为依据,建立了铁路货运事故处理质量评价指标体系,并运用满意评价法设计了相关的满意度函数,最终实现铁路货运事故处理质量的满意评价。     

Towards a new approach for the identification of atypical accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification (HAZID) in safety reports has become progressively more difficult to achieve. Several major accidents in Europe in recent years, such as Buncefield and Toulouse, were not even considered by their site ‘Seveso-II’ Safety Case. One of the reasons is that available HAZID methodologies take no notice of apparently least likely events. Nonidentified scenarios thus constitute a latent risk, whose management is extremely complex and open ended. For this reason, the EC project iNTeg-Risk, in one of its tasks, aimed to investigate the issue of atypical scenarios and explain how they could have been identified. This study wants to describe the approach used and its immediate results, paving the way towards a new method for the identification of atypical accident scenarios. An in-depth accident analysis of some of these accidents was performed, in order to outline general features of plants in which they occurred, their causes, consequences, and lessons learned. This analysis followed a precise common scheme, which allowed a systematic approach to the problem by the experts involved. Based on the findings, failures connected to risk management and risk appraisal were identified. Three main basic issues in risk appraisal were identified: the low perception of emerging risks related to atypical accident scenarios, the lack of knowledge about related events, such as early warnings, and the incapability of current techniques in leading analysts to the identification of atypical scenarios.     

The establishment of injury surveillance in Thailand

The Provincial Injury Surveillance System was initiated in Thailand in 1993 to establish a database for assessment of the quality of acute care and referral services provided to the injured at the provincial level, and to facilitate injury prevention and control at both local and national levels. An injury surveillance system model that adopted a trauma registry as the record form, was established in five selected large hospitals, one from Bangkok and four from major regions of Thailand. Data analysis was undertaken and utilized at both local and national levels. The Epidemiology Division of the Ministry of Public Health supervised and assessed the data quality. Evaluators from the School of Public Health identified problems in operating the system at the provincial level and assessed the feasibility of expanding the project. The data of 66,895 injuries including 1,755 deaths reported in 1995; revealed fundamental problems in the emergency medical services. Causes of major injuries were identified and their epidemiology described. The coverage of reporting was over 90%. The completeness and reliability of recording ranged from 80.6–100%. This model of sentinel surveillance is appropriate for injury problems, which are of large magnitude and are at the early phase of problem solving. Development of the information systems administration and human resource in computer technology are necessary to cope with the problems of increased workload in data collecting and processing. This model of surveillance is feasible for expansion but its data system has to be appropriately integrated into the existing systems of the hospitals.     

Electrical deaths in the US construction: an analysis of fatality investigations

Electrocution is among the ‘fatal four’ in US construction according to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. Learning from failures is believed to be an effective path to success, with deaths being the most serious system failures. This paper examined the failures in electrical safety by analysing all electrical fatality investigations (N = 132) occurring between 1989 and 2010 from the Fatality Assessment and Control Evaluation programme that is completed by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health. Results reveal the features of the electrical fatalities in construction and disclose the most common electrical safety challenges on construction sites. This research also suggests the sociotechnical system breakdowns and the less effectiveness of current safety training programmes may significantly contribute to worker's unsafe behaviours and electrical fatality occurrences.     

A review of powered-two-wheeler behaviour and safety

Powered-two-wheelers (PTWs) constitute a very vulnerable type of road users. The notable increase in their share in traffic and the high risk of severe accident occurrence raise the need for further research. However, current research on PTW safety is not as extensive as for other road users (passenger cars, etc.). Consequently, the objective of this research is to provide a critical review of research on Power-Two-Wheeler behaviour and safety with regard to data collection, methods of analysis and contributory factors, and discuss the needs for further research. Both macroscopic analyses (accident frequency, accident rates and severity) and microscopic analyses (PTW rider behaviour, interaction with other motorised traffic) are examined and discussed in this paper. The research gaps and the needs for future research are identified, discussed and put in a broad framework. When the interactions between behaviour, accident frequency/rates and severity are co-considered and co-investigated with the various contributory factors (riders, other users, road and traffic environment, vehicles), the accident and injury causes as well as the related solutions are better identified.     

Social inequalities in injury risk in Wales,U.K.

Road traffic accident data in Nigeria generally lack exact coordinate information. Accident analysis is, therefore, restricted to aggregate data on trends, magnitude and temporal dimensions. This article addresses the road accident problem in Jos between 1995 and 1999 through a road profiling approach. Results show that four gateway routes, seven multilane roadways (including two gateway routes) and seven road intersections accounted for 84% of all traffic accidents, 84% of injured casualties and 88% of fatalities. This approach allows for quantification of impacts of controlling for accidents by deliberate profiling of roads for close monitoring and policing. For example, reducing accident counts and fatalities by 50% each on gateway routes will amount to ～35 and 40% reduction in accident and fatality counts, respectively. Countermeasures must consider these roadways and intersections as important inputs in their accidents and casualty reduction targets.     

城市交通弱势群体事故发生机理及时空分布特征

运用事故树分析原理,分析了交通弱势群体事故的发生机理,提出了动态视线障碍的概念,指出动态视线障碍的存在是造成大量交通弱势群体事故的重要因素。从微观到宏观,通过研究交通弱势群体事故与交通流量和车速的关系,进而寻找交通弱势群体事故近三年来的变化特征及在不同时段、流量条件下的变化规律,以及不同区域内的分布情况,总结出交通弱势群体事故的时空分布特征,提出了有针对性的事故预防措施。